As they get set to return from the All-Star break, the Sixers are at a real crossroads, the likes of which the organization has not seen in over a decade. The team sits at 20-34 with a roster which was constructed to contend for championships immediately. Their two highest-paid players are on the wrong side of 30 with uncertain futures. They are 1.5 games out of the postseason picture and have finally reached some semblance of health.
But then there is another thought, and it is one which has dominated the public discourse surrounding the team since it took a mild-mannered approach to the trade deadline earlier this month: in a season which has been so disastrous, the Sixers could pack it in for the season. Shutting down hobbled stars Joel Embiid and Paul George could help the Sixers prevent further physical issues that jeopardize their chances next season while also giving themselves a chance of nabbing a first-round pick that would give the organization a significant infusion of young talent.
Because, as everyone remembers by now, the Sixers will only keep their first-rounder if it falls within the top six picks. Otherwise, it will belong to the Oklahoma City Thunder as a result of Sixers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey's first trade with the franchise, a deal centered around Al Horford.
With the NBA’s new playoff format, the top six seeds in each conference are guaranteed spots, while seeds No. 7 through No. 10 must participate in the Play-In Tournament to earn one of the final two spots. If the Sixers want to end up in the playoffs, it is nearly a certainty that they will need to go through the Play-In Tournament to get there — and they are already expressing confidence in their ability to do so.
“We've seen some crazy things happen in the Play-In,” star point guard Tyrese Maxey said after the Sixers completed their Wednesday morning practice. “I think Miami went all the way from the Play-In to the championship. They got hot at the right time, they meshed at the right time… So who knows? The biggest thing about this is we have to compete.”
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It will not be easy for the Sixers, who currently stand as the No. 11 seed, 8.5 games behind the No. 6 seed Detroit Pistons for a certified playoff spot. However, they are only 1.5 games behind the No. 10 seed Chicago Bulls for the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. Here is how the top 12 in the Eastern Conference standings looks entering Thursday:
Being the No. 7 or No. 8 seed is a massive benefit in the Play-In Tournament, as it gives a team two chances to win one game and earn a playoff spot. In order for a No. 9 or No. 10 seed to make the playoffs, they have to secure back-to-back victories in win-or-go-home situations.
So is catching a team like the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks possible? Burgeoning star forward Jalen Johnson is out for the season, but the Hawks do not own their first-round pick in 2025 and have no incentive to do anything other than make a concerted effort to win. To date the Hawks have been better, even as they struggle, but the Sixers will face them three times between now and the end of the regular season. Those games will be tremendously important if the Sixers begin finding themselves to any degree.
The team the Sixers will have their eye on at all times if they are serious about making a run, though, is Chicago, who the Sixers will play host to on Monday and in their 82nd and final game of the season on April 13. The Bulls are just not a good team — and have not been one all year. They just traded Zach LaVine for role players to regain access to their own first-round pick, and it is fair to expect a drop-off in the months ahead. Unbelievably, the Play-In Tournament looks wide open for the Sixers, even despite an embarrassing 54-game sample before the break.
What is that worth, though? Outpacing a lowly team to become the No. 10 seed, then needing to win back-to-back road games, all to earn the right to face a juggernaut Cavaliers team currently on a 66-win pace?
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And then there is that draft pick, and the allure of holding onto it, rolling over the team's obligation to Oklahoma City to next season and adding one of the many prizes in what is believed to be a loaded draft class. Even if the team does not land the No. 1 overall pick to select Duke phenom Cooper Flagg, there are plenty of other tantalizing talents in this year's class, including Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey of Rutgers, who could conceivably help the Sixers in the short-term while becoming additional building blocks for the franchise in the long-term.
Assembling a young nucleus of Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and a premium lottery pick while also having exciting role players with upward mobility like Quentin Grimes and Justin Edwards would give the Sixers a greater sense of security as they ponder what life may be like without Embiid down the line.
But the Sixers will only keep their pick if it lands between No. 1 and No. 6, and even after their horrid loss to the Brooklyn Nets before the All-Star break began, they are tied with the Nets for the sixth slot in the draft lottery standings. That is about the extent of their upside as far as maximizing the odds of the pick not conveying to the Thunder based on the current lottery standings, via the brilliant Tankathon:
But because of the NBA's lottery used to determine the draft order, the Sixers being worse than Brooklyn the rest of the way and securing the sixth-worst record in the league would not guarantee them a top-six pick. In fact, based on the actual odds, they would still have a better chance of watching the pick drop out of the protected range and into the hands of Oklahoma City than keeping it themselves.
Back from a story published in November on the Sixers' hypothetical chances of keeping their first-round pick, here are their odds of the pick remaining in the top six based on each possible slot in the lottery:
| Lottery position | Chance of keeping pick |
| 1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 93.0% |
| 4 | 81.1% |
| 5 | 64.0% |
| 6 | 45.8% |
| 7 | 31.9% |
| 8 | 26.3% |
| 9 | 20.2% |
| 10 | 13.9% |
| 11 | 9.4% |
| 12 | 7.1% |
| 13 | 4.7% |
| 14 | 2.4% |
Only if the Sixers got into the No. 5 slot in the lottery would they be able to have any amount of confidence that they will keep their pick, but nearing a coin flip scenario in the No. 6 slot would not be a bad position. If they do embrace the tank over the final two months of the season, they will be rooting hard for the young and scrappy Nets to keep playing over their heads as they have for much of the season.
From a public-facing perspective, the Sixers have done nothing but indicate they are gearing up to make a push. Maxey, Grimes, Guerschon Yabusele, and head coach Nick Nurse have all mentioned in just the last few days that the Play-In Tournament provides greater opportunity to turn this thing around. But if they keep losing games in brutal fashion— like they did five times in a row leading into the All-Star break — that chance may evaporate, or become so insignificant that the only realistic option is to pursue the protection of their first-round pick.
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