In the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, the Philadelphia Eagles will play the winner of the Monday Night Football matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams. Which of those two teams is the more ideal opponent? It's the Rams, clearly, but let's examine it a little more in depth.
The basics
The Rams are 10-7 with a -19 point differential.
The Vikings are 14-3 with a +100 point differential.
Advantage Vikings.
Nerd stats
The Rams finished 17th in DVOA (10th offense, 26th defense). They finished 21st in EPA/play.
The Vikings finished 7th in DVOA (15th offense, 2nd defense). They finished 8th in EPA/play
Advantage Vikings.
Did they play the Eagles?
Rams: Yes, the Eagles blew them out in L.A., with Saquon Barkley running for 255 yards. The Rams got pushed around in the trenches on both sides of the ball in that game.
Vikings: No.
Other good opponents
The Vikings played the Rams this season, and the Rams won, 30-20. If you'll recall, that was a primetime game that ended on a safety and one of the most egregiously missed facemask penalties you'll see:
Otherwise, the Vikings played 6 games against teams that made the playoffs. They went 3-3 in those games.
- Texans: W, 34-7
- At Packers: W, 31-29
- Lions: L, 29-31
- At Rams: L, 20-30
- Packers: W, 27-25
- At Lions: L, 9-31
The Rams played five games against teams that made the playoffs. They went 2-3 in those games.
- At Lions: L, 20-26
- Packers: L, 19-24
- Vikings: W, 30-20
- Eagles: L, 20-37
- Bills: W, 44-42
Let's go position by position
QB: Matthew Stafford is better than Sam Darnold, and he has a lot more playoff experience, including a ring. Darnold has never started a playoff game. Advantage Rams.
RB: Kyren Williams had more yards than Aaron Jones because he had a lot more carries, but Jones (4.5 YPC) is more efficient than Williams (4.1 YPC), and he has a solid backup in Cam Akers. Jones is also clearly the better receiver. Maybe an unpopular opinion here, but advantage Vikings.
WR: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are very good, obviously, but Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the world, and Jordan Addison is an up and coming stud. The Vikings have the best WR duo in the NFL, in my opinion. Advantage Vikings.
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TE: T.J. Hockenson missed a lot of time this season with injuries, but he is back, and he is a lot better than any of the Rams' tight ends. Advantage Vikings.
OL: The Rams experienced a lot of injuries to their O-line early in the season, but they have found a lineup that works for them as the season has progressed. I would like the Vikings' line more if Christian Darrisaw hadn't gotten hurt. Advantage Rams.
DL: The Rams have a young defensive line that is capable of getting to the quarterback, but they can also get pushed around in the run game. I found that group to be wildly overrated when I studied them in advance of the Rams-Eagles matchup. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkle, and Pat Jones combined for 30.5 sacks this season for Minnesota, while also finishing as the second-best run defense in the NFL. Advantage Vikings.
LB: There isn't a lot of name power on either side here, but I've always been a Blake Cashman fan. He and Ivan Pace are better than Christian Rozeboom and Omar Speights. Advantage Vikings.
CB: Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin, and Byron Murphy are a veteran group, though corner will be an obvious position of need for the Vikings this offseason. Still, they're better than the Rams' situation at corner, as they recently benched Cobie Durant. Their trio is now Darious Williams, Ahkello Witherspoon, and Quentin Lake (?), which would be a bad matchup against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Advantage Vikings.
S: Harrison Smith is still around for the Vikings, though I don't love Cam Bynum. The Rams have a decent pairing of Cam Kurl and Kam Kinchens. Advantage Rams.
Any other additional advantages/disadvantages?
The Vikings played on the road Week 18 in Detroit, and they'll play on the road again out on the West Coast in this matchup. If they advance to the Divisional Round, they'll presumably be taking a redeye home from Arizona (the makeshift site for Vikings-Rams), and then have to travel to Philly on a short week of rest for a third-straight road game. That's tough.
Conclusion
The Rams are the more ideal opponent, mainly because I already saw the Eagles dominate them in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and don't see how or why that would be much different in a rematch, at least with the Eagles' offensive line against the Rams' defensive line. Ultimately, I think the Eagles will comfortably beat either of them. They'll certainly be favored.
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