What does history of NBA Draft trades say about value of Sixers’ No. 3 overall pick?

As many Sixers fans call for the team to explore trading down from the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, we are doing all we can to gauge what possible deals might look like – from asking around about prospects expected to be chosen later in the lottery to identifying potential trade partners to holding mock trade negotiations with writers covering those teams.

The obvious play at this point is to evaluate the history of teams moving down from one of the few top picks in the draft. Each class and its ensuing circumstances are different, but there is something to be learned from prior deals.

There is not a massive collection of deals in recent history where teams moved down from this high of a spot, but there is at least a decent sample we can reflect on. Shall we dive in?

Note: We are only evaluating times when teams traded down from No. 3 or nearby spots, not up. That eliminates a certain deal from the 2017 offseason. You're welcome.

De'Andre Hunter trade of 2019

Armed with the No. 4 overall pick after the Anthony Davis deal, the New Orleans Pelicans decided to continue stockpiling assets rather than make that selection. With the Atlanta Hawks eyeing Virginia wing De'Andre Hunter, they consolidated three later picks to move up:

Hawks receive… Pelicans receive…
No. 4 pick No. 8 pick
No. 57 pick No. 17 pick
Solomon Hill No. 35 pick
Heavily-protected future first-round pick

A few notes on this: that future first-rounder was almost certain to become two second-round picks, and did turn out to be the case. Solomon Hill was being salary-dumped by New Orleans; he was not considered an asset for the Hawks. The Sixers have a similar veteran they might want to avoid paying next season.

We will see that New Orleans receiving this many assets to move down four spots turned out a bit anomalous. But there is a very clear 2025 analogy for this package if the Sixers and Brooklyn Nets both feel motivated to swap picks:

Nets receive… Sixers receive…
No. 3 pick No. 8 pick
Andre Drummond No. 19 pick
No. 36 pick

If the Sixers deal with the Nets, they should pursue their own 2028 first-round pick – but Brooklyn has every right to keep that asset off the table. In any case, Brooklyn's strong collection of picks in this year's draft should enable the Nets to make a competitive offer to jump to No. 3 overall if they want to do so.

Luka Dončić-Trae Young trade of 2018

Atlanta had the No. 3 pick the year prior and found itself fascinated with Oklahoma guard Trae Young. Conversely, the Dallas Mavericks stood at No. 5 and were infatuated with Slovenian phenom Luka Dončić. Dončić was clearly the superior prospect, so the Hawks knew they could extract additional value out of their pick while ending up with their prospect of choice. A rather simple deal ensued:

Mavericks receive… Hawks receive…
No. 3 pick No. 5 pick
Lightly-protected future first-round pick

The extra first-rounder acquired by Atlanta had light protections that eventually would become extinguished and turn the pick unprotected if necessary. But it conveyed as the No. 10 overall pick in the following season.

Based on both how simple this construct is and how the draft board aligns this year, this archetype of trade is the most likely deal for the Sixers, whose ability to continue collecting future picks could help serve as a lifeline in a post-Joel Embiid world. Two obvious examples:

Jazz receive… Sixers receive…
No. 3 pick No. 5 pick
2027 top-four protected first-round pick via LAL

Wizards receive… Sixers receive…
No. 3 pick No. 6 pick
2029 first-round pick (second-most favorable of BOS, MIL, POR)

If either Utah or Washington is enamored with a prospect they could get at No. 3 overall, they have more than enough future first-rounders in their arsenal to make this sort of offer.

O.J. Mayo-Kevin Love trade of 2008

Yes, it actually took us going this far back to find another educational example.

The Minnesota Timberwolves had the No. 3 overall pick but were resolute about ending up with UCLA power forward Kevin Love, while the Memphis Grizzlies picked at No. 5 and believed USC guard O.J. Mayo was the superior prospect. The Timberwolves chose Mayo and the Grizzlies selected Love, then the teams came to terms on a complicated swap filled with veterans:

Grizzlies receive… Timberwolves receive…
No. 3 pick No. 5 pick
Greg Buckner Mike Miller
Marko Jarić Jason Collins
Antoine Walker Brian Cardinal

I will save you the time of figuring out the significance of each player: Bucker, Jarić, Walker, Collins and Cardinal were all window dressing. The deal was about the picks and Miller, who in a five-year run with Memphis had averaged 14.6 points per game – that figure skyrocketed to 17.4 in his final two seasons with the Grizzlies – and was one of the NBA's best three-point shooters.

Earlier this week, a Sixers source told PhillyVoice that the team has not considered packaging the No. 3 pick in a deal for a star, instead focusing on adding young talent to its nucleus. But could they move down the board and still add an exciting rookie to their core while also adding a player prepared to help them now? One framework sticks out:

Pelicans receive… Sixers receive…
No. 3 pick No. 7 pick
Kelly Oubre Jr. Herb Jones
Andre Drummond

Perhaps this sort of deal represents the best of both worlds, as the Sixers would bolster their 2025-26 roster with hopes of reviving their championship window immediately while maintaining an infusion of young talent. But it is also the most difficult sort of deal to pull off, particularly because of this year's draft order.

MORE: Will No. 3 pick prevent Sixers from keeping Guerschon Yabusele, Quentin Grimes?

Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam

Follow PhillyVoice on Twitter: @thephillyvoice

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