The Phillies on Wednesday announced that they picked up left-handed reliever José Alvarado's $9 million option for 2026. At his last press conference, Phillies President Dave Dombrowski said the team was likely to bring Alvarado back.
While it makes sense given Alvarado's success with the team, the move also invites some skepticism.
Although Alvarado is a fan favorite and very popular in the clubhouse, the Venezuelan southpaw's inconsistency has also symbolized the team's regression from 2022 World Series runner-ups to being bounced in the National League Division Series in each of the past two seasons.
In 2025, Alvarado really let the Phillies down. He was suspended for 80 games and the postseason for a violation of MLB's performance-enhancing drug policy, and even when he returned in August, a left forearm strain he sustained in September negated any help he could've provided down the stretch to a bullpen that struggled – especially in middle relief – for most of the season.
Alvarado's 2026 salary isn't exorbitant for an impactful lefty setup man with his resume, and for someone whose fastball can reach the upper 90s, if not triple digits.
But in guaranteeing his return, the Phillies are bringing back another aging arm to a bullpen that already has more than a few, while ensuring that they'll have to lean on the rollercoaster ride that Alvarado can often be for some high-leverage outs in 2026.
Was it the right decision to bring Alvarado back to a bullpen that badly needs to be reshaped and upgraded?
Let's take a look at the pros and cons:
Why they should
He's been effective
In five seasons for the Phillies, Alvarado's ERA is 3.48 – just a tick higher than the 3.46 ERA he compiled in his first four seasons with Tampa Bay, which made him an attractive trade acquisition for the Phillies in 2021. His 1.31 WHIP for the Phillies is right around his career average. In a league full of high-variance bullpen arms who suddenly flame out, Alvarado has come as advertised. His 37 saves for the Phillies are the team's most over the past five years, and he has averaged almost 12 strikeouts per nine innings in a Phillies uniform, making him one of the team's most dominant arms. Alvarado typically comes in to face left-handed batters, and left-handers have slashed .195/.286/.274 against him for his career.
His fastball is still elite
In limited innings last year, Alvarado's fastball averaged 99.6 miles per hour, per FanGraphs. He's still one of MLB's hardest-throwers from the left side, and he can couple with flame-throwing right-handed closer Jhoan Duran to form an imposing lefty-righty setup-closer tandem. Having two guys at the end of the bullpen who can get their fastball into triple digits allows Dave Dombrowski to work from there as he rebuilds the pen.
Wear-and-tear should be down
The only positive from Alvarado's 2025 is that he kept off the mileage. The suspension and forearm injury limited him to just 26 innings as he turned 30, after pitching the second-most of his career in 2024 (61.2). Alvarado turns 31 in May, so the limited workload from last season should've helped preserve him.
$9 million isn't that pricey for his role
The Dodgers gave left-hander Tanner Scott a four-year contract last offseason, averaging $18 million annually, and last year Scott pitched to a 4.74 ERA over 57 innings. They also gave Kirby Yates $13 million, and Yates pitched to a 5.23 ERA in 50 innings and didn't even pitch in the postseason. If the Phillies get 50+ high-leverage innings from Alvarado in 2026, $9 million is well worth the price, especially with an elite closer like Duran on the books for $8 million.
Why they shouldn't
His sinker velocity dipped last year
Alvarado's signature pitch is his hard sinker, which at its best is almost unhittable. Before the PED suspension, Alvarado's average sinker topped at 100 mph and never dipped below 99 mph, per FanGraphs. Upon his return, his sinker never averaged more than 99 mph in a game and at times registered an average as low as 97.3 mph, a potential indication of velocity drop that could be an ominous harbinger for 2026. Velocity is Alvarado's superpower. Without it, he's eminently more hittable.
His postseasons haven't been great
If the entire objective is to finally get back to the World Series and win it, Alvarado's playoff track record isn't ideal. He has a 4.14 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 21.2 career playoff innings. He was part of the 2024 NLDS implosion against the Mets – two runs on a hit and two walks in two-thirds of an inning – and allowed 7 runs in 11.1 innings in the 2022 playoffs, including the three-run home run to Astros lefty slugger Yordan Alvarez in Game 6 that helped Houston clinch the World Series. In Game 5, he hit Alvarez with the bases loaded to force in a run before giving up a two-run double to Alex Bregman. Is there reason to believe he'll be more effective in 2026?
His streakiness is scary
Alvarado once set a record by striking out 11 straight batters across four appearances, but in 2022 he was also optioned to Triple A after his ERA skyrocketed to more than 7.00 in 17 appearances. Then came the postseason implosion against the Astros in the World Series, and more recently against the Mets, along with last year's PED suspension that put a major strain on an already struggling bullpen. There's no question Alvarado has great stuff, but he's prone to issuing untimely walks and a loss in command. His 4.57 K/BB ratio last year was the highest of his career. When he's off, he's really off and hard to watch.
The Phillies have other aging lefties
Matt Strahm, who turns 34 next week, is on the books for $7.5 million in 2026 and comes off a good, but not great, season in which he posted a 2.74 ERA across 61 innings. Tanner Banks, who just turned 34 last month, pitched 67.1 innings last year and shined with a 3.07 ERA. Banks and Strahm are guaranteed to be on the team next year. Do the Phillies really need another over-30 lefty, or could Dombrowski have used some of that $9 million on a younger left-hander, or toward another free agent, or to re-sign any of the Phillies' other free agents?
Final judgment
Time will tell if Dombrowski made the right move. It's exceedingly difficult to find left-handed bullpen arms who have Alvarado's stuff and can get high-leverage outs, so it made sense for the Phillies to want him back. But the risk is surely there.
If age, velocity decline, or even the slightest loss of command plague Alvarado in 2026, it'll be another setback for a bullpen that badly needs to recover from a terrible 2025. The team can't have $9 million devoted to a reliever who isn't going to be dependable.
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