With NFL free agency, the NFL Draft, and the schedule release now in the rearview mirror, sportsbooks have updated their win-loss over-unders. For the gambling degenerates, I'll name a few that I like. First, the over-unders (via MGM):
| Team | O/U | Team | O/U |
| Eagles | 11.5 | Dolphins | 8.5 |
| Bills | 11.5 | Vikings | 8.5 |
| Chiefs | 11.5 | Patriots | 8.5 |
| Ravens | 11.5 | Steelers | 8.5 |
| Lions | 10.5 | Seahawks | 8.5 |
| 49ers | 10.5 | Falcons | 7.5 |
| Bengals | 9.5 | Cowboys | 7.5 |
| Broncos | 9.5 | Colts | 7.5 |
| Packers | 9.5 | Jaguars | 7.5 |
| Texans | 9.5 | Panthers | 6.5 |
| Chargers | 9.5 | Raiders | 6.5 |
| Rams | 9.5 | Saints | 6.5 |
| Buccaneers | 9.5 | Giants | 5.5 |
| Commanders | 9.5 | Jets | 5.5 |
| Cardinals | 8.5 | Titans | 5.5 |
| Bears | 8.5 | Browns | 4.5 |
• Commanders (over-under 9.5): The Commanders won four games in 2023. In 2024, they won 12. That was the biggest win total improvement in the NFL last season. It tied for the 9th best improvement since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule. Here's a look at all the teams that have had improvements of 8 or wins in a season, and then what those teams did the year after their big improvements (again, since the NFL went to at least 16-game schedule):
| Team | Bad season | +8 season | Next season |
| 1998-2000 Colts | 3-13 | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| 2007-2009 Dolphins | 1-15 | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| 2015-2017 Cowboys | 4-12 | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| 2011-2013 Colts | 2-14 | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| 2012-2014 Chiefs | 2-14 | 11-5 | 9-7 |
| 1998-2000 Rams | 4-12 | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| 2003-2005 Steelers | 6-10 | 15-1 | 11-5 |
| 2018-2020 49ers | 4-12 | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| 1991-1993 Colts | 1-15 | 9-7 | 4-12 |
| 1996-1998 Jets | 1-15 | 9-7 | 12-4 |
| 2000-2002 Bears | 5-11 | 13-3 | 4-12 |
| 2003-2005 Chargers | 4-12 | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| 1987-1989 Bengals | 4-11 | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| 2014-2016 Panthers | 7-8-1 | 15-1 | 6-10 |
| 2023-2025 Commanders | 4-13 | 12-5 | ??? |
Only the 1996-1998 Jets had an improvement once again after their initial breakout season. On average, the above teams experienced a decrease of 3.9 wins the following season.
For the under to hit, the Commanders only have to lose three fewer games, and it's probably worth noting that they had some lucky wins last season. Put me down for the under.
UNDER 9.5.
• Dolphins (over-under 8.5): The Dolphins are a terrible cold weather team, and they have three road games in December against cold weather teams (Jets, Steelers, Patriots). The Dolphins have some extreme speed on offense, with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane, but I don't love what they have in the trenches and their secondary is a mess. Soft team, overrated head coach.
UNDER 8.5.
• Packers (over-under 9.5): The Packers are pathetic losers for trying to litigate a play out of the rulebook that they can't stop, but they won 11 games with a +122 point differential playing in a tough division last season, and the Lions and Vikings will both very likely see dropoffs from their 2024 win totals.
OVER 9.5.
• Cowboys (over-under 7.5): The Cowboys' season went completely sideways with injuries in 2024 and they still managed to win 7 games. I certainly don't think the Cowboys are contenders, but an 8-9 record feels like a pretty achievable bar. I think they're an 8- or 9-win team.
OVER 7.5.
- MORE EAGLES
- Eagles power ranking roundup, post-draft edition
- Interesting facts and figures about the Eagles' 2025 opponents
- Game-by-game Eagles 2025 win-loss predictions
• Bears (over-under 8.5): Every year there's some team that gets a lot of unwarranted hype. That's the Bears this year. Last year, too, really. They're going to have a winning season? I don't think so.
UNDER 8.5.
• 49ers (over-under 10.5): The 49ers have an extremely easy schedule, but they're not exactly the same team they were in 2023, when they went to the Super Bowl. To begin, the following defensive starters from that team that went to the Super Bowl are gone:
- DT Arik Armstead
- DT Javon Hargrave
- DE Chase Young
- LB Dre Greenlaw
- CB Charvarius Ward
- CB Ambry Thomas
- S Tashaun Gipson
- S Talanoa Hufanga
Plus, Deebo Samuel is gone (and probably cooked anyway), Trent Williams will be 37, George Kittle will be 32, Brandon Aiyuk is still recovering from ACL/MCL tears, and Christian McCaffrey's body continued to fail him last season.
And this team is tied with the Lions for the fifth-highest win total over-under? I don't care what their schedule looks like. That's just nuts.
UNDER 10.5.
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