NHL Draft lottery primer: The Flyers’ No. 1 pick odds and who they might take

The NHL Draft lottery is set for Monday night at 7 on ESPN, and the eyes of Flyers fans everywhere will be locked in on the ping pong balls that will determine both the outlook of the team and the league's future.

So there will be some suspense, but in the hopes that soon enough, that tension will stem from a playoff series rather than the placement of a name on the board.

But the Flyers still need their name on the board as high up as possible.

Here's a look at their odds and what's on the line for them approaching Monday night…

What are their chances of moving up?

First, we need a quick refresher on the NHL Draft lottery rules, because they're not particularly straightforward.

The 16 teams that didn't make the playoffs are all in the running, and are seeded 1-16 based on worst record.

There are two drawings. The first determines who gets the No. 1 overall pick, and the second for the No. 2 overall pick.

Teams can only jump a maximum of 10 spots in either drawing, so the teams seeded 12-16 can't win the top pick. In the event that one of the 12-16 seeded teams does win the first lottery drawing, though, and jumps in turn, the first overall pick will instead go to the team who finished worst in the league, which is the San Jose Sharks.

The second drawing re-adjusts the odds based on the first one's outcome, and goes from there.

The Flyers hold the No. 4 overall pick on the board as it stands now, and have a 9.5 percent chance of winning the first drawing and thus the top pick along with it.

Here are all 16 teams' odds for the first drawing, per the NHL:

Team Lottery Win No. 1 Pick
1) San Jose 18.5% 25.5%
2) Chicago 13.5% 13.5%
3) Nashville 11.5% 11.5%
4) Philadelphia 9.5% 9.5%
5) Boston 8.5% 8.5%
6) Seattle 7.5% 7.5%
7) Buffalo 6.5% 6.5%
8) Anaheim 6.0% 6.0%
9) Pittsburgh 5.0% 5.0%
10) NY Islanders 3.5% 3.5%
11) NY Rangers* 3.0% 3.0%
12) Detroit 2.5% 0.0%
13) Columbus 2.0% 0.0%
14) Utah 1.5% 0.0%
15) Vancouver 0.5% 0.0%
16) Calgary** 0.5% 0.0%

*Conditional to Vancouver; **Sent to Montreal if outside of Top 10

Keep in mind, too, that the Flyers could be knocked a spot or two back on the board should any team behind them in the order win either drawing.

In Philadelphia, it seems like you always have to be braced for that scenario.

MORE: Matvei Michkov wants to be the best in the NHL, Flyers believe he will be

Who could they take?

The Flyers need high-end centers, and fortunately there are going to be a handful of heralded center prospects expected to be available within the first 5-6 picks, provided the lottery drawings keep the Flyers within that range.

Saginaw's Micahel Misa would be the premier pick up next month, but would likely require the No. 1 or No. 2 pick to land him. Boston College's James Hagens is projected to be a solid option right behind him, and Sweden's Anton Frondell and Moncton's Caleb Desnoyers round out the top center selections for that aforementioned 5-6 range.

The Flyers wouldn't be completely out of luck if they were to fall back a couple of spots either, as Brantford's Jake O'Brien and Brandon's Roger McQueen project as viable center options, too. Additionally, they could pivot out to left wing and go for another Swedish prospect in Victor Eklund should the approach simply be best player available.

While on the subject of best player available, it should be noted that Erie defenseman Matthew Schaefer has become the consensus No. 1 pick.

The Flyers are pretty well stocked up on defensive prospects, but should they win the No. 1 pick or should Schaefer fall, it might be the better route to just go and grab one more.

We'll have more on these prospects as the draft approaches.

MORE: It's time for Flyers to shift from subtracting to adding, Danny Brière says

What else do they have to work with?

The Flyers have 11 picks in the draft next month, including three first-rounders in total thanks to previous trades with Colorado and Edmonton.

General manager Danny Brière said there's a possibility that the Flyers could just stand pat and make all three selections during his cleanout day press conference a couple of weeks back, but the general thought for a while now has been that the Flyers are going to go looking to make some kind of deal with all that capital stocked up – either in a swing to move up the board if they need to, or maybe even in a swing that can improve the NHL roster immediately as young pieces like Matvei Michkov and Tyson Foerster continue to develop.

But before any of those scenarios can play out, we have to see where the ping pong balls fall on Monday night first.

MORE: Is Rick Tocchet the favorite in the Flyers' coaching search?

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