NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Week 10 edition

Week 9 of the NFL season was kind of crazy, with upsets galore and wild games. We have one new obituary this week, the overhyped and overrated Washington Commanders.

Obituary: Commanders (3-6)

The Commanders are 3-6, and Jayden Daniels' season is very likely over with a dislocated elbow.

Almost everything that could have gone wrong for this team this season, did. Let's review the Commanders' extremely foreseeable issues, which we outlined during the summer in our dumpster fire series. In case you're unfamiliar, every year we lay out 10 reason each team in the NFC East could have bad seasons. The Commanders' 10 things this year:

1) Regression is coming: The Commanders went from four wins in 2023 to 12 wins in 2024. Teams that have that big a jump in win total almost always regress the following season, as we detailed. But also, the Commanders had like a couple dozen lucky wins in 2024, and weren't likely to see that fortune repeat in 2025. And well, they already have more losses this season (6) than they did in 2024 (5). ✅

2) They made stupid trades for expensive vets: Those vets would be Laremy Tunsil, Deebo Samuel, and Marshon Lattimore. Tunsil was an upgrade at LT, particularly in pass pro, but he is also a penalty machine, and he cost a 2, a 3, and a 7 to acquire (with 4th round picks going each way). Now that their season is over, they'd probably rather have those picks. Samuel was acquired for a fifth-round pick (lauded as a "steal"), but the Commanders also had to pay him $17.5 million. He has 42 catches for 367 yards and a paltry 8.7 yards per catch. Lattimore is cooked, and is now also done for the season with a torn ACL. He cost a couple of draft picks, and the Commanders paid him $18 million in 2025. ✅

3) They made a lot of stupid free agent signings: The Commanders signed, traded for, or re-signed 12 (!) players who were 30+ years of age at the time, plus another seven players who have since turned 30 or will turn 30 by the time the Super Bowl is played in February of 2026. Instead of trying to surround Daniels with players who could grow with him, they signed a boatload of old dudes, many of whom won't be on the team in 2026. It made no sense! The one big signing they made was Javon Kinlaw, for three years, $45 million. He has nine tackles and no sacks, lol. ✅

4) They have the oldest team in the NFL, by far: You could see this season how slow this team looked, especially on defense, and as expected they had major injury issues. ✅

5) Their pass defense will probably suck: We noted a complete lack of pass rush juice on their roster, and shaky corners. And, well, they're 29th in pass defense. ✅

6) Their run defense will almost certainly suck… again: They finished 30th in run defense last season. This year, so far, they're 22nd. An improvement 🎉! Of course, that's probably only going to get worse as they continue to lose games down the stretch. ✅

7) Their rushing offense is carried by their quarterback: The concern here was that Daniels was very likely going to have to take a lot of hits, jeopardizing his ability to make it through the season healthy. And, well, he didn't. ✅

8) The idea that "Daniels will only continue to get better" is not a given: Even before he got hurt, Daniels was having a bad season. We warned that teams around the league were going to have a year's worth of tape to scrutinize his strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. And sure enough, he got a little exposed. His EPA (expected points added) per play in 2024 was 0.16. In 2025, it was 0.04. Or if you like traditional stats, he was down across the board, as a passer and runner. ✅

9) The Commanders converted on an unsustainable percentage of 4th down conversions in 2024: They were an incredible 20 of 23 last season. This year they're 6 of 13. They've more than doubled their turnover on downs. ✅

10) Dan Quinn: We picked on Quinn for turtling up on the first drive of the NFC Championship Game. But the point we made in the process was the Commanders were lucky to be in the NFC Championship Game in the first place, and Quinn tried to play it like they weren't the obviously inferior team. Against the Seahawks on Sunday night, the Commanders were down 38-7 in the fourth quarter, and Quinn somehow thought his team hadn't already lost. He left Daniels in the game, and OOOOOPS, Daniels' elbow bent a direction it shouldn't, and his/their season is now over. ✅

Points 1, 8, and 9 were more of the macro probability variety, and 10 was a critique of the coach. The front office couldn't really do anything about those. But the other six bullets? They were all egregious mistakes that the front office either failed to consider, failed to fix, or just failed in their strategic thinking.

I'm not that smart, and yet, it was pretty easy picking apart their flaws. If I could diagnose everything that was going to go wrong with this team, how could GM Adam Peters and his front office staff miss all of the above? Peters had a Joe Schoen-like offseason. It's too bad Hard Knocks wasn't filming it.

Looking ahead, the Commanders have just two picks in the first four rounds of the draft next April, and Daniels aside, they have virtually nothing in the way of under 25 talent already on the roster. They have a rebuild of sorts ahead, because they have to replace all the old players on the roster that they signed this past offseason. And by the time they're able to surround Daniels with legitimate contending talent, he won't be on his extremely affordable rookie contract anymore.

The good feelings from the Commanders' dream season in 2024 — which oh by the way helped the rival Eagles win the Super Bowl by allowing them to avoid playing the Lions in Detroit in the NFCCG, lol — lasted for like one offseason. We hadn't heard Commanders fans chirp for a while, but they were in full throat for one summer. They should be back in hibernation.

Graveyard

Hierarchy

12) Falcons (3-5): Bijan Robinson's stats in the Falcons' five losses this season:

If the Falcons had fans, they'd be lined up outside whatever their version of the NovaCare Complex is with "Run the ball" signs.

If they lose at home to the Colts Week 10, we can probably put them in the graveyard.

Last week: 13

11) Cowboys (3-5-1): The Cowboys' defense has been atrocious this season, but their offense has been explosive. If I were to make an argument for their chances of contending this season, I would probably say that if their defense can juuuuust get it together a little bit, and just be "regular bad" as opposed to near-worst in the NFL, then maybe they can win a bunch of shootouts.

Of course, there's a flip side to that logic. What if the offense can't sustain its explosiveness, and just becomes "regular good," as opposed to near-best in the NFL, and the defense continues to be as bad as it has been?

We saw the latter Monday night against the Cardinals.

Last week: 11

10) Panthers (5-4): The NFL's most incongruous record / point differential combos:

• Panthers: 5-4, -35
• Texans: 3-5, +47
• Cardinals: 3-5, +9
• Jaguars: 5-3, -8
• Bears: 5-3, -12

Last week: 10

9) Bears (5-3): Bears-Bengals and Jaguars-Raiders were two of the most entertaining games of the season, played by a quartet of irrelevant teams. And by "entertaining" I mean full of huge mistakes that led to wild, big plays, at least in the case of Bears-Bengals.

Anyway, the Bears have no business being anywhere near the top of the NFC North standings, but they're right there with a chance to get to 6-3 against the Giants Week 10.

Last week: 9

8) Vikings (4-4): This is a really good breakdown by Shawn Syed of what Brian Flores did to frustrate Jared Goff on Sunday.

Brian Flores had a great game plan against the Detroit Lions
Vikings were able to force the RB into pass protection over and over, create movement to prevent the QB stepping up in the pocket, and then overload the OL to create a free runner outside
Broke it all down here ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/M3SYbDAPX2

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 3, 2025

There are a handful of coordinators in the NFL on both sides of the ball who can scheme up wins, and Flores is one of them.

Last week: 8

7) 49ers (6-3): Heading into this season the Niners' three most important defensive players were Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and rookie 11th overall pick Mykel Williams.

• Warner has a dislocated/broken ankle.
• Bosa has a torn ACL.
• Williams has a torn ACL.

But… they keep playing well enough to win most of their games.

On offense, Kyle Shanahan is trying to ensure that Christian McCaffrey won't be able to walk in 2026. McCaffrey has 229 touches in nine games. The next-closest player (Jonathan Taylor) has 184, and the next-closest player after Taylor (James Cook) has 166.

Last week: 7

6) Packers (5-2-1): We can agree that from this point on, from 6 to 1, are all the teams that can reasonably represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Right? Well, usually, those teams beat the teams they should beat. There will be a slip-up on occasion, like the Eagles' loss to the Giants, or even the Lions' loss at home this week to the Vikings. The Seahawks, Rams, and Bucs don't have any bad losses.The Packers now have two, to the Browns and Panthers. They are the youngest team in the NFL, and I think that shows up on the field too often.Also, the Packers had a devastating injury on Sunday, when they lost star TE Tucker Kraft for the season with a torn ACL.

Last week: 2

5) Lions (5-3): At the beginning of the season, there was a lot of hand-wringing over whether the Lions would miss former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, especially after a bad Week 1 performance in which they only scored 13 points and gained just 246 yards. And then in four straight games they scored 34 or more points (all wins) and put those concerns to bed.Well… the offense is a concern again. The Lions' last three games:

Those aren't awful numbers, necessarily, but they're also not what the Lions were a year ago.

Last week: 1

4) Seahawks (6-2): In the first half against the Commanders on Sunday night, Sam Darnold was 16 of 16 for 282 yards and four TDs.

Also, their defense swarms to the football.

This team might be really good. They have two divisional games upcoming against the Cardinals and Rams. Those two games will go a long way in deciding if they can win the NFC West.

Last week: 6

3) Rams (6-2): The Rams have given up just 20 points combined in their last three games. Granted, those games were against the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, the Jaguars, and the Saints, but they're taking care of business against their bad opponents, unlike, saaayyy, the Packers, as noted above.

Last week: 5

2) Buccaneers (6-2): The Bucs are coming off of their bye, and their next three opponents have a combined record of 19-6 (0.760).

• Patri*ts: 7-2
• At Bills: 6-2
• At Rams: 6-2

Last week: 4

1) Eagles (6-2): Biggest divisional leads in the NFL:

• 3-game lead: NFC East (Eagles)
• 2-game lead: AFC North (Steelers), AFC South (Colts)
• 1.5-game lead: NFC South (Buccaneers)
• 1-game lead: AFC West (Broncos)
• 0.5-game lead: AFC East (Patriots), NFC North (Packers)
• Tie atop the division: NFC West (Seahawks, Rams)

Last week: 3

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