Making the statistical cases for and against the Sixers drafting Tre Johnson

We are inching closer to the 2025 NBA Draft, and on June 25 the Sixers will make one of the most consequential decisions in recent franchise history when they make a call on what to do with the No. 3 overall pick.

In the aftermath of the draft lottery last month, PhillyVoice spoke with six draft experts about some of the best prospects in this year's class, diving into their strengths and weaknesses and potential fits with the Sixers.

Over the next several days, we will be diving deeper into each player's statistical profile, finding some numbers which paint a positive picture as far as their long-term outlook is concerned and others that show why their case to be the choice at No. 3 is not ironclad. This exercise is not meant to persuade or dissuade when it comes to any particular player, it's merely another way to illustrate each one's advantages and disadvantages at the next level.

Up first: Tre Johnson, the sharpshooting guard from Texas not considered a favorite to land in Philadelphia. However, in a mock draft published on Thursday, I made the argument that Johnson may represent what the team is hoping to find in this slot more than any other prospect expected to be available. His case is not a simple one, but there are some convincing data points:

The case for picking Johnson

• Three-point shooting: Johnson is the best three-point shooting prospect in this entire class, and draft expert Ahmed Jama told us last month that Johnson posted "the most impressive jump-shooting season for a freshman since at least the advent of college play-by-play statistics (2010)." Every possible indicator – quantitative and qualitative – suggests Johnson will be one of the NBA's most prolific snipers for many years to come. Since we are focused on the numbers today…

These are extremely strong numbers for Johnson, whose blend of volume and efficiency as a shooter is only rivaled to any degree by Kon Knueppel and gives him a strong floor in terms of finding a productive role at the NBA level early on in his career – and a better chance of reaching star-caliber outcomes down the line.

• Go-to scoring upside: Johnson has work to do before becoming someone an NBA team can rely on for steady on-ball scoring – more on that later – but he is far more than just a shooter. He has demonstrated real skill as an offensive focal point. Johnson had one of the most significant offensive roles of any prospect in this year's class, nearly every single one with a bigger ball-handling role was a primary initiator for their team. These numbers are courtesy of DataBallr, a stellar resource for basketball statistics which recently introduced a gold mine of numbers pertaining to the draft:

For Johnson to handle this sort of offensive burden as a non-point guard bodes extremely well for his ability to take on a significant offensive role down the line in the NBA. Speaking of…

• Secondary playmaking: Johnson averaged only 2.7 assists per game as Texas, but when looking under the hood there are some positive indications that he can be a reliable secondary playmaker (a sentiment echoed by many who have watched him play extensively).

Given how often he had the ball as a non-point guard, it would have been fair to expect Johnson to rack up turnovers. But he did the opposite, doing a noticeably strong job of protecting the ball. Johnson's "creation adjusted turnover percentage" – a version of turnover percentage accounting the totality of a player's offensive responsibilities – was in the 93rd percentile in this class, according to DataBallr.

In other words: Johnson had the ball all the time and managed to avoid turning it over most of the time. That is a good place to start, particularly when scouts say there is clearly passing feel that can be tapped into.

SIXERS-SPECIFIC SCOUTING REPORTS

Tre Johnson | Ace Bailey | VJ Edgecombe

Kon Knueppel | Derik Queen | Khaman Maluach

The case against picking Johnson

• Rim pressure: In order for Johnson to maximize his offensive abilities and become a star, he will have to improve as a driver and finisher. He is obviously a tremendous three-point shooting prospect and also has plenty of comfort as a mid-range scorer, too, but Johnson's ability to get all the way to the basket and convert there remains questionable at best. While more development as a passer would be great for him, the biggest key to Johnson becoming an offensive star is consistently being a threat to score at all three levels – and adding some free-throw volume to his resume as a result. Because at Texas, Johnson's rim frequency numbers and free throw rate were not good:

Given how much Johnson had the ball, having such subpar numbers here is a bit daunting. For better or worse, there is an obvious explanation…

• Strength: This will be the most simple statistic I use in this entire series of breakdowns: Johnson weighed in at 190.4 pounds at the NBA Draft Combine. He stands at nearly 6-foot-5 and has a wingspan of more than 6-foot-10, both strong marks for an NBA shooting guard, but Johnson is extremely slight. He is probably going to need to put on significant strength to ever be someone who has their way with NBA defenses.

Jared McCain had significant concerns out of Duke in the size and athleticism departments but proved with the Sixers that he could offset those shortcomings by utilizing not just craftiness and feel, but also strength. McCain can bump a defender off a spot and rise up with ease. This micro-skill is far more valuable when the player who possesses it is a high-caliber shooter:

Jared McCain uses his extremely impressive strength to bump a defender off a spot, then rise up and knock down an easy mid-range jumper: pic.twitter.com/96zZPO31ba

— Adam Aaronson's clips (@SixersAdamClips) December 12, 2024

While Johnson is not an elite athlete, he is a far better one than McCain. But right now, he lacks the ability to use his shoulder to create separation and flow into a high-efficiency jumper that McCain has. If he cannot put on some additional muscle, it will limit his scope of self-creation opportunities in addition to capping his ability to get to the rim and finish around the basket. Against NBA strength and physicality, that is only going to be more challenging for Johnson moving forward.

• Defense: Johnson does not need to become a positive NBA defender to hit his ceiling, but he does need to be a consistently passable player on that end of the floor. Make no mistake about it: early on in his career, Johnson's slender frame will lead to NBA offenses targeting him. That will continue for as long as he gives anyone a reason to go in another direction.

Johnson has the makeup of a player that can be at least a satisfactory guard defender if his offensive skills do most of the work when it comes to providing value for his team. His athleticism is fine and his length is excellent. But that very rarely showed up at Texas, where the Longhorns were 7.8 points better per 100 possessions with Johnson off the floor on the defensive end.

Even individually, it would have been nice to see Johnson post intriguing defensive playmaking numbers to at least know there is some foundation for defensive impact in the NBA, even if it is limited. That was not the case:

This is an extremely lackluster defensive output, and if the Sixers draft Johnson it will be scrutinized quite a bit as he joins a team with McCain and Tyrese Maxey cemented as its building blocks of the future.

But if one is a believer in Johnson's immense offensive upside, the rest of the equation becomes small potatoes. Players who can shoot and score at this level do not grow on trees.

MORE: Finding targets for Sixers at No. 35 overall based on Daryl Morey's draft history

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