Making the statistical cases for and against the Sixers drafting Kon Knueppel

We are inching closer to the 2025 NBA Draft, and on June 25 the Sixers will make one of the most consequential decisions in recent franchise history when they make a call on what to do with the No. 3 overall pick.In the aftermath of the draft lottery last month, PhillyVoice spoke with six draft experts about some of the best prospects in this year's class, diving into their strengths and weaknesses and potential fits with the Sixers.Over the next several days, we will be diving deeper into each player's statistical profile, finding some numbers which paint a positive picture as far as their long-term outlook is concerned and others that show why their case to be the choice at No. 3 is not ironclad. This exercise is not meant to persuade or dissuade when it comes to any particular player, it's merely another way to illustrate each one's advantages and disadvantages at the next level.Up next: Kon Knueppel, the sharpshooter from Duke whose brilliant shooting ability, craftiness and underrated ball-handling chops make him one of the most complete offensive players in this year's class. Knueppel feels certain to be an impact player in the NBA, but many wonder if he has the upside to become to a star. Should he be in consideration at No. 3?

The case for picking Knueppel

• Shooting: Knueppel is an absolute sniper, combining gargantuan volume with elite efficiency as a three-point shooter and leaving no doubt that it is a sign of things to come by making well over 90 percent of his free throws. Knueppel's shooting profile is endlessly amazing, but these are the key numbers:

Knueppel is an incredible spot-up three-point shooter, but also a terrific mover without the ball who can connect on all sorts of challenging looks. Being a full-fledged elite shooter gives him a remarkable baseline in the NBA; it is almost impossible for someone who is as prolific of a shooter as Knueppel is to fail. He can add tremendous value in the quantifiable ways — three-pointers certainly show up in the box score — but also with the gravity and floor spacing he provides any offense.• Secondary creation upside: Soon after the draft lottery, I asked Brian Geisinger to describe an important aspect of Knueppel's game that many people do not know about. This is what he said after a full season of covering Duke:

"Knueppel isn’t an overly manipulative playmaker, but he’s a clever, decisive passer, who leverages the threat of his shooting to unlock his passing game……Thanks to his shooting gravity and ability to read defenders, Knueppel often drew two defenders when coming off screens. In those moments, Knueppel made snappy decisions and found open teammates for rim finishes – often [Khaman] Maluach – or kick-out threes."

When looking at the most basic numbers — such as Knueppel's 2.7 assists per game with the Blue Devils — it seems like he is a limited creator. But a deeper look at his numbers offers a more encouraging outlook. First of all, Knueppel took his playmaking up a notch later in the season, a sign of growth which ended up being vital for a Duke team which had to get by without Cooper Flagg for a brief period:

Duke's offense was largely centered around Flagg — not just as a primary scorer, but as an offensive playmaking hub — but Knueppel eventually found ways to, as Brian said, leverage the threat of his shooting to create looks for his teammates. It is important to note, as it is another way his dynamic shot-making will aid an offense beyond the simple value of his shots going in. Knueppel also took very good care of the ball all season, posting a 10.8 turnover percentage and an assist to turnover ratio just over 2.0.

MORE: Sixers-specific Knueppel scouting report

The case against picking Knueppel

• Defense: Knueppel is a tweener defensively, and that is intended to be a negative comment. He does not have quite enough quickness to stick with guards and is a bit too short to handle wings with regularity. His lack of a clear position will present challenges for whichever team drafts him, and his best fit would be on a team with a defensive infrastructure featuring not just high-caliber defenders, but multi-positional ones.Knueppel gives considerable effort on the defensive end and his smarts help him get by. But the impact of a perimeter defender without much playmaking is capped significantly, and Knueppel even had subpar production as a defender at the collegiate level. The following numbers come from Databallr.com:

With his limited mobility and short arms, it is tremendously difficult to imagine Knueppel ever topping out as anything more than an average defender. If he can reach that level — or at least never be too exploitable as a weak link — he can left his offense do the talking. But teams would be right to worry about Knueppel's viability on the defensive end of the floor. • On-ball scoring upside: While Knueppel is better than many realize as a ball-handler and passer, the constant skepticism regarding his chances of achieving stardom stem from the fact that he is not a great self-creator. Knueppel has real craft and great feel, and that gets him to a decent place. But can a player without a ton of burst ever be an on-ball star?Some of the red flags in Knueppel's statistical profile, also courtesy of Databallr:

It is harder to imagine Knueppel developing into the primary scorer of a good NBA team than players like Ace Bailey and Tre Johnson. Even VJ Edgecombe, whose offensive skill is vastly inferior to that of Knueppel, has so much more athletic juice that could enable a star outcome if he develops considerably as a ball-handler and his shot continues to come along.At the same time, it almost feels impossible to imagine a world in which Knueppel is not a very good NBA player for many years. And so, the decision of whether or not he should be in consideration here — or how seriously they consider him — will depend on how badly the Sixers feel they need to land a future star as opposed to securing a no-doubt-about-it rotation staple.

MAKING THE STATISTICAL CASES FOR AND AGAINST OTHER PROSPECTS

Ace Bailey | VJ Edgecombe | Tre Johnson

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