We are inching closer to the 2025 NBA Draft, and on June 25 the Sixers will make one of the most consequential decisions in recent franchise history when they make a call on what to do with the No. 3 overall pick.
In the aftermath of the draft lottery last month, PhillyVoice spoke with six draft experts about some of the best prospects in this year's class, diving into their strengths and weaknesses and potential fits with the Sixers.
Over the next several days, we will be diving deeper into each player's statistical profile, finding some numbers that paint a positive picture as far as their long-term outlook is concerned and others that show why their case to be the choice at No. 3 is not ironclad. This exercise is not meant to persuade or dissuade when it comes to any particular player, it's merely another way to illustrate each one's advantages and disadvantages at the next level.
Up now: Ace Bailey, the star Rutgers forward who has quickly become one of the most polarizing draft prospects in recent memory. Some see Bailey as a jumbo-sized shot-maker with superstar potential and others point to his noticeable weaknesses as reasons he will fail to peak beyond being a helpful role player. It is not hard to see either side of the argument.
The case for picking Bailey
• Difficult shot-making brilliance: If you have seen a highlight reel of Bailey before, I am willing to wager it was almost entirely comprised of the 18-year-old making ridiculous, off-balance jumpers over heavy contests. Bailey has a knack for tough shot-making that just cannot be taught. Even if he measured a bit shorter at the NBA Draft Combine than the 6-foot-10 he had previously been billed at, Bailey's height on the wing and 7-foot-plus wingspan enable him to get off all sorts of difficult jumpers that he has shown an ability to drain far more often than most could conceive of making.
Bailey's talent as a shooter is best represented by his combination of obscene volume and just-as-wild efficiency in the mid-range area, where he is at his most comfortable. The following stats are courtesy of Databallr.com:
| Category | Ace Bailey 2024-25 | Percentile |
| Mid-range attempts per 100 possessions | 11.3 | 94th |
| Mid-range shooting percentage | 46.0% | 89th |
To be able to blend that sort of gargantuan volume with elite efficiency is the ultimate sign of a true mid-range shot-maker, and as much as NBA teams try to stray away from long two-point attempts nowadays, there is no debating that it is an area on the floor in which it helps a ton to have a player who knows how to operate one-on-one and flow into a self-created jumper.
• Frame: Of all prospects being considered by the Sixers at No. 3, Bailey is far and away the best fit in terms of size and position. The team's two best long-term building blocks are Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain, both guards and neither players with good size for their positions.
Then there is Bailey, who still needs to put on some muscle moving forward as just about any 18-year-old would, but stands at 6-foot-7.5 with a 7-foot-0.5 wingspan. He can be a wing in the NBA right away, and assuming he eventually bulks up he can be a quality option at either forward spot.
Whether or not Bailey is actually a good fit with the Sixers based on his style of play is a different conversation. But it is at least conceivable that Bailey, McCain and Maxey can be the organization's three pillars in the future if the two younger players near their ceilings.
• Defensive and rebounding foundation: Anyone with Bailey's size, length and athleticism that is good or better has a real chance to be an impact defender. Bailey has quite a bit of work to do to get there, but the makeup of a player capable of impacting winning in more ways than one is evident. Bailey was a strong rebounder at Rutgers, averaging 8.6 boards per game (2.5 on the offensive glass).
Bailey did not notch a ton of takeaways in college, averaging 1.0 steals per game to go with 1.5 blocks per game. The latter department is where Bailey's instinctual ability to utilize his length and mobility really stood out.
MORE: Asking an expert about Bailey's fit with the Sixers
The case against picking Bailey
• Playmaking and decision-making: To put it lightly: Bailey's ability to create shots for others is extremely limited, and his shot selection is extremely suspect. In 1,000 minutes at Rutgers, Bailey had only 38 assists while committing 61 turnovers. Those are ghastly figures; it is nearly impossible to reach offensive stardom with such limited creation ability. This is not just about decision-making, but also skill: Bailey's lack of creation for others stems from both questionable decisions and a very loose handle that needs to be fixed up in short order.
Bailey will need to make a massive leap as a passer, ball-handler and decision-maker to even come close to reaching the heights many believe he can get to. Perhaps a strong player development program in the NBA and consistent reinforcement of these concepts will help him do just that. But it is going to be an uphill battle.
• Self-creation: Even while taking note of Bailey's exceptional ability to knock down tough shots, there are major pitfalls within his on-ball scoring resume. Bailey will need added bulk to become a more imposing driver, and he needs to begin embracing the extra step or two it takes to touch the paint rather than always settling for a mid-range jumper. Bailey's rim frequencies reflect those of Tre Johnson, who is a 190-pound guard.
Some numbers from Databallr reflecting the issues in Bailey's scoring profile:
| Category | Ace Bailey 2024-25 | Percentile |
| Rim attempts per 100 possessions | 6.0 | 39th |
| Field goal percentage at the rim | 61.0% | 32nd |
| Free throw attempts per 100 possessions | 6.1 | 29th |
Bailey's ability to pull off difficult feats on the basketball court is impressive. But at some point, he must be able to handle the much simpler duties of a go-to scorer if that is the kind of player he wants to be.
This is why Bailey's fit in Philadelphia is questionable beyond his mere positional status. On a roster already filled with ball-dominant players, how would Bailey carve out a role for himself? Even proponents of Bailey's acknowledge that he has a lot of work ahead of him before being a positive, impactful player in the NBA – how long are the Sixers willing to wait?
MORE: The statistical cases for and against picking Tre Johnson
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