Mailbag: With 2 minutes to go, would you prefer Eagles ball down 4, or Chiefs ball up 4?

With the Philadelphia Eagles set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl, let's do a mailbag before media coverage really ramps up this week. Questions solicited from Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads. This is Part II of a two-part mailbag (Part I here).

Question from @Boston_Sucks: If you had to pick between these two scenarios, which situation would you rather be in if you're the Eagles:1) Eagles have the ball down 4 with 2 minutes to go.2) Chiefs have the ball down 4 with 2 minutes to go.The Eagles were in four of those types of late-game situations this season on defense, and they lost two of them:• The Falcons had the ball at their own 30 down 6 with 1:39 to go. That was an Eagles loss.• The Panthers got the ball at their own 3 down 6 with 2:58 to go. That was an Eagles win.
• The Jaguars got the ball at their own 47 down 5 with 2:11 to go. That was an Eagles win.
• The Commanders got the ball at their own 43 down 5 with 1:58 to go. That was an Eagles loss.
The Eagles were only in one of those situations this season in which the offense needed to win the game:• The Eagles got the ball at their own 31 down 5 with 2:03 to go against the Saints. That ended up being an Eagles win.I probably trust the Eagles' defense more than I trust Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' passing game, but you'd have to be high to prefer putting the ball in Patrick Mahomes' hands in that kind of game situation. We've all seen him lead late game-winning or game-tying drives, including in the last two Super Bowls.

Question from @zeisenberg6 (via Bluesky): The Eagles have not trailed in the second half of a game often (if at all) since the bye. Does that give cause for concern going into the Super Bowl?

By my count, the Eagles trailed in the second half in three games after the bye, for a total of 27:28.

  1. They see-sawed with the Commanders (first matchup) and had deficits of 4, 7, and 4 for 18 minutes in the second half before they took the lead for good and pulled away.
  2. They trailed the Panthers by 2 points for 4:04.
  3. They trailed the Commanders (second matchup) by 1 for 5:18, and by 3 for the final 6 seconds of the game.

So, you're right, they rarely faced second-half deficits, and they never fell behind by more than one score.

This question reminds me of a pre-game conversation that Bill Belichick and Doug Pederson had before Super Bowl LII. Belichick said to Pederson, "I tried to find a game where you were behind, I couldn't find one."

Bill Belichick gave Doug Pederson props before #SBLII. @Eagles #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/bzcPPmrPlJ

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) February 8, 2018

Belichick was being complimentary of the Eagles as a team. But also, when game planning, teams will look for opponents' tendencies in certain game situations. What Belichick was saying to Pederson was that the Patriots didn't have much to work with in terms of how the Eagles might operate if faced with a deficit. The Chiefs could have similar challenges in that aspect of game-planning.

So you can look at that one of two ways. If you're a pessimist, you can say that the Eagles haven't really had to come from behind much this season in the second half, so they're untested in those moments. If you're an optimist, the Chiefs will be unsure about the Eagles' tendencies in those moments.

Question from @drbrando: From a defensive standpoint, what keeps the Eagles optimistic compared to the Super Bowl two years ago? Mahomes statistically had one of his 5 best games of all time and Jonathan Gannon had no chance against that offense.

I think the failure in that game defensively was Gannon's inability to adjust to what the Chiefs were doing.

I think we saw Vic Fangio's ability to adjust throughout the season, notably against good offenses like the Bengals and their regular season matchup against the Rams. Both of those teams moved the ball on the Eagles with ease their first few drives, before Fangio found answers and shut them down.

Gannon had no answers at all against the Chiefs.

Question from @silverdj7: Andy Reid always has a wrinkle up his sleeve that other teams are unprepared for. See the 'in-out' WR pattern they did to the Eagles for the TD at end of SB two years ago for exemple (Kadarius Toney? Skyy Moore? I forget). How do the Eagles prepare for that so it doesn't set the tone for the game?

We rarely saw the Eagles blow coverages this season. They had a bad play against Commanders in which Olamide Zaccheaus basically wasn't covered deep down the field. That play was due to a substitution mix-up.

But it's hard to think of many scheme quirks that surprised the Eagles' defense this season. Generally speaking, I think the Eagles' defense played with discipline and "good eyes." They were also just really good at basic things like tackling and block destruction.

When you mention the play that gave the Eagles fits in the Super Bowl, I'm reminded a bit of the 4th down play that Cooper DeJean made against Ja'Marr Chase this season. (Video via Ben Fennell):

Of course, that play isn't the same thing as what helped beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl, but I think it serves as evidence that the Eagles also simply have better back-seven players on defense than the 2022 team.

Question from @ketchupneggs (via Bluesky): How has Nick Sirianni been on the less obvious 4th down decisions this year? I feel like he hasn’t been as aggressive and it could cost them in the Super Bowl. Also, I wasn’t happy with his lack of aggression at the end of the first half a few weeks ago.

I agree that Sirianni poorly managed the end of the first half against the Rams in the Divisional Round, but the Eagles remain one of the most aggressive fourth down teams in the NFL. If we're being fair, Sirianni's fourth and 5 call against the Commanders in the NFC Championship Game was a "big balls" moments.

If there's a concern in this area, it's Andy Reid, who does not like to go for it on fourth down, relative to other teams around the league. Here's where they ranked each season since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018:

Year 4th down attempts NFL Rank
2018 15 T-20
2019 10 32
2020 16 T-23
2021 15 31
2022 12 T-30
2023 20 T-21
2024 17 26

The Chiefs weren't often forced to go for it on fourth down late in games with big deficits because they're usually winning. But still, I mean, Andy, come on dude. You have maybe the best quarterback ever. Let him make some plays on fourth down.

Question from @brian_hueber: How does the NFL allow coaches to talk with teams when they are still playing? If Kellen Moore is pretty much already the Saints' coach then what does he care about helping the Eagles win? It’s a clear conflict!

I do think that allowing coaches to interview on shorter weeks during the playoffs is unfair to the teams that have put themselves in position to do great things. However, there are two weeks in between the Conference Championship Round and the Super Bowl. I don't think it's a big deal to allow coaches whose teams are in the Super Bowl to interview during that first week.

Other teams around the league have to get on with their offseasons and it's unfair to deserving assistants who are looking to further their careers.

As for the idea that Moore doesn't care about winning this game if he already has the Saints job on lock, I can assure you that he very much wants to win a Super Bowl.

Question from @docfugazi (via Bluesky): When will we know if Brandon Graham will play?

In case you missed it, we spoke with a doctor (not Graham's doctor) about the realistic possibility that Graham could play in this game, and what his limitations might be.

The short-short version is that he will be 11 weeks removed from tearing his triceps, which is typically a 16-24 week injury, and he will be weaker than normal when extending his arm (pushing motions). There is a pretty good chance that he can re-injure it before it is fully healed.

However, if he reinjures it, there isn't much of threat of it being a life-long injury. He could just get it repaired again and rehab it as necessary. Since this is almost certainly going to be his last ever NFL game (assuming he plays), playing in the Super Bowl might be worth the bodily risk to him.

Knowing Brandon Graham, I am certain he is going to want to play. The only question is whether Fangio and the defensive staff will deem him a liability on the field if his injury is simply too prohibitive for him to make a positive impact.

My bet? He'll play.

Question from @AvgBlackDudee: Given the Eagles’ cap space and current contracts, how many years do you think their Super Bowl window is with their current core?As we noted a couple weeks ago, the Eagles are young, potentially still ascending, and should remain mostly intact for years to come.There will be some tough decisions year-to-year, but they should be able to keep the core together for the foreseeable future.

Question from @shawnandgus90 (from Threads): Do you think there’s any merit to the notion that the Chiefs receive favoritism from officials? And do you think it should be a legit concern for the Eagles in the Super Bowl?

There's no question that Mahomes gets calls that other plays don't. He knows this, and exploits it.

He'll slide as the last second trying to draw late hits. Clear example here:

He'll also often ride the sideline on scrambles and step out at the very last second while a defender has already committed to hitting him. The below video (via @TheMarkJohnNFL) isn't the most textbook example, but it's the most high-profile one as it got the Chiefs to the Super Bowl in 2022:

Oh, and by the way, the official in the above video is Ron Torbert, who is officiating the Super Bowl on Sunday.

And as we saw against the Texans in the Divisional Round, Mahomes flat out stopped near the sidelines, let a Texans player hit him, and then acted like he had just been shot.

The Eagles just have to be smart. Know his tendencies, and don't cost yourself an unfair 15 yards.

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