Barring an unforeseen setback, it appears as if Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will start Monday night against the Eagles despite undergoing surgery this past Monday on his fractured left (non-throwing) hand.
Herbert suffered the fracture very early in last Sunday's 31-14 win over the Raiders on a scramble when he collided with Raiders safety Jeremy Chinn. It appeared that his left hand rammed into Chinn's helmet. Herbert got up and stared at his hand with that "WTF?" look as he walked back to the huddle.
On the very next snap, he threaded a tight window touchdown pass to Quentin Johnson for a 7-0 lead – lol Raiders.
Here's the whole sequence – with a dramatic pause when Herbert stares at his own hand:
Herbert came out for the next series to get his hand wrapped, then came back in, threw an interception in the end zone – it was a good play by the Raiders – but later threw another touchdown and finished 15 for 20 for 151 yards, 2 TDs and a 108.5 passer rating.
After the game, Herbert said he'd play against the Eagles on Monday night regardless of the impending surgery. He's been practicing this week, and he and the coaches maintain that he'll play.
This game is as important for the 8-4 Chargers as it is for the 8-4 Eagles, so it's not surprising the Chargers are doing everything in their power to have Herbert ready and to avoid having to start Trey Lance – who is of a career 56.4 completion percentage and 79.9 passer rating.
Even if Herbert plays, the Chargers will have to change their offense dramatically. Once Herbert returned with the glove, he took all his snaps from the shotgun or pistol formations. The left hand repair should make it nearly impossible for Herbert to go under center, which is a significant part of the Los Angeles offense.
As the Eagles have finally discovered at times this year – emphasis on "at times" – going under center can be a nice mix to your run and pass offense. It's tougher for defenses to determine the path of the running back when offenses are under center, and it also opens up the play-action pass.
Per Next Gen Stats, Herbert averages 8.6 yards per attempt from under center, up almost 2 yards from the gun (6.9). The Eagles will be happy to see Herbert operate exclusively from the gun, as they've allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt (6.2) and an NFL-best 57% completion rate to QBs from the gun.
Advantage, Fangio.
The hunch here is that Vic Fangio won't blitz very much Monday night. Herbert's combination of arm strength, accuracy, athleticism and a quick trigger make him tough to routinely pressure. Nearly 44 percent of all Herbert's passes this season have come under 2.5 seconds, but since losing LT Joe Alt in Week 10, that percentage has jumped to almost 54 percent, the third-highest in the NFL.
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Fangio shouldn't need to get too crazy schematically. The Chargers are already limited without an under-center play action game, and as Jimmy Kempski noted in his preview, their offensive line is in shambles.
The pass game matchup will come down to Herbert's ability to thread tight windows against Fangio's zone defense, which has already shut down some excellent tight-window throwers, including Jordan Love and Jared Goff.
Herbert completed 20 percent of his tight-window throws (passes where the intended receiver has less than 1 yard of separation when the pass arrives) in Week 13, fifth-highest among NFL starting QBs. Of course, he was playing against the woeful Raiders.
Here's an example of Herbert finding a quick outlet against pressure, up against a front that Fangio likes to showcase:
On 3rd-and-10, the Raiders were in a loaded front. See how three of their four linemen were aligned together across the left side of the Chargers' o-line, while the other pass rushers were all the way on the opposite side? That's usually a sign that a blitz is coming, and it's likely to involve a stunt, which is what happens.
Raiders star Maxx Crosby stunted inside, which the Chargers picked up, and Herbert delivered quickly to Keenan Allen against the boundary corner to move the chains. The good thing for the Eagles is that Quinyon Mitchell is their boundary corner, and isn't likely to give up that much space to Allen.
But don't be surprised if Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman (an Atlantic City native) uses motion and the field side to go after Adoree' Jackson with the quick game.
On that snap, the Raiders rushed three and dropped a lineman to spy Herbert, but Chargers rookie WR Tre Harris changed from slot receiver to outside because of Ladd McConkey's motion. The ball came out lightning quick, no pun intended.
The Eagles have a much better defense than the Raiders – even if they haven't exactly shown it in their past two games – and will obviously need to improve their run defense to force Herbert into these third-down scenarios.
But the challenge for Herbert will be carving up Fangio's zone and finding targets in passing lanes that are likelier to be narrower than the ones he found against Las Vegas.
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