Whether it's cryptic messages on social media and the awkward interviews with the media explaining them thereafter; an hours-long conversation with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts in the parking lot of the NovaCare Complex that was only news because of his perceived rift with the quarterback; or most recently, alarming comments while playing video games on Twitch with someone named "JankyRondo," A.J. Brown has had a bizarre 2025 season.
He has made more headlines for the drama surrounding him off the field than he has for his play on it, as he has just 31 catches for 408 yards and 3 TDs through the Eagles' first nine games, putting him on pace for a career low in receiving yards. Of course, a big reason his numbers are down is because his targets are down. Brown is only getting 6.8 targets per game, far below the target share of other elite receivers around the NFL.
Fans, media, and even Brown himself have blamed the circumstances around him, whether it's the offensive scheme, play calling, Hurts simply not throwing his way, or opposing defenses going out of their way to make sure someone other than Brown beats them. A much more uncommon hypothesis for Brown's light production is the possibility that he could be in decline. Let's examine that.
More alarming than Brown's basic stats are his numbers when the ball actually does come his way. Brown is on pace for career lows during his time with the Eagles in the following categories:
- Yards per reception
- Yards per target
- Completion percentage on targets
- Average yards after the catch
- Average separation
The first four categories above should be pretty easy to understand for the average reader. The separation stat, via NFL's NextGen Stats, is "the distance (in yards) measured between a WR and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion." Here's how each of the five categories above look over the course of Brown's time in Philly:
| A.J. Brown | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Yards per reception | 17.0 | 13.7 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
| Yards per target | 10.3 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 7.6 |
| Completion % on targets | 60.7% | 67.1% | 69.1% | 57.4% |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 |
| Average separation (in yards) | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
He's not just down in some of those categories. He's way down. Conversely, the Eagles' other star receiver, DeVonta Smith, is having his best season in four of those five categories during that same timeframe:
| DeVonta Smith | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Yards per reception | 12.6 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 13.7 |
| Yards per target | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 10.6 |
| Completion % on targets | 69.9% | 72.3% | 76.4% | 77.4% |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Average separation (in yards) | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
For this exercise, I cut up all of Brown's 54 targets on the season. It's a little over 10 minutes long. We'll have commentary thereafter:
To begin, there is nothing wrong with Brown's hands. He has made a few great catches this season. The only thing close to a drop was a Hurts pass that was behind him on a slant route. (I wouldn't ding him for a drop on that.)
The big concern that I have is his ability to separate from defenders, and his lack of yards after the catch.
Separation
Brown noted on Wednesday that he has won against man coverage this season. He even pointed out that after he had caught a few passes against man-to-man coverage by Patrick Surtain, the Broncos switched up to cloud coverages that took him out of the game. I cut up all of Brown's targets vs. man coverage this season, and, well, he's right. When he has faced man coverage, his catch rate has been far higher than when defenses have played zone. However, despite his increased success against man coverages, if you watch his reps vs. man, there's not a lot of separation:
Against zone this season, opposing defenses are pretty clearly shading Brown's way. That would help explain to some degree his career-low target-based stats shown in the charts above compared with Smith's career-high target-based stats. But his lack of separation against man coverage, particularly compared to previous seasons, is more concerning.
There also appear to be some clues that Brown is compensating for that lack of separation. For example, one thing I noticed is that he is pretty blatantly pushing off on defenders this season.
He has always done that to some degree, but it's been more subtle.
Yards after the catch
Because Brown has not gotten much separation this season, he has also not gotten many yards after the catch. Those two things typically go hand in hand. Brown was able to get away from weak tackling Emmanuel Forbes a couple times against the Rams, but his yards after the catch have otherwise been near non-existent. Breaking away from defenders and gobbling up extra yards has arguably been Brown's best trait over his career, and we just haven't seen that in 2025.
Conclusion
The Eagles' passing offense has sputtered for big chunks of the season, with occasional glimmers of hope.
Do Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo need to figure out how to more effectively beat the zone coverages that have frustrated the offense all season? Yes!
Could Jalen Hurts see the field better at times and get the ball to Brown in situations that he is open? Yes!
Can it be frustrating for a receiver accustomed to greatness to play in a run-first offense and have limited control over his effect on games from week to week? No doubt.
But also, on the eye test, in my opinion, Brown just doesn't look like the same top-3 type of receiver we have come to know during his time in Philly, and if we're being frank, he quit on a deep route against the Broncos that could have been a TD. Maybe the Eagles are 8-1 instead of 7-2 if he doesn't. His teammates and the coaching staff never complained about that.
It's probably too soon to say Brown is in decline based on a sample size of his eight games played, and it's also worth noting that he missed the bulk of training camp with a hamstring injury. But it's also fair to suggest that his individual play can and should be better than what it has been.
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