MLB's free agency will officially start Thursday, and the Phillies are once again expected to be key players.
Their priority is probably going to be slanted toward bringing back their big-name free agents — Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suárez and probably Harrison Bader, who is expected to decline a mutual option.
It seems probable that all four of those players would be happy to return if they were compensated duly. The Phillies were really one or two breaks away from beating the Dodgers last month. The front office seems determined to run it back and try to catch them in 2026.
Whether or not it's possible to bring the band back together falls on the Phillies' ownership group, led by John Middleton.
As things currently stand, the Phillies are projected to be on the hook for $247 million in 2026, which falls right around MLB's first of three luxury tax thresholds.
If we use last season as a model for how they might be willing to spend, the Phillies were a bit shy of the third and final tax number, which would have cost the Phillies 50% on every dollar spent over $301 million. They spent $290 million on players last season.
The 2026 "third surcharge" is $304 million, so in theory under this unspoken cap number, the Phillies have around $50-$55 million to play with.
Schwarber is looking for upwards of $30 million per year, and five years. Realmuto according to Spotrac, is worth around $13 million on the open market (the top-paid catcher in baseball last year made $15 million, Atlanta's Sean Murphy). Suárez could break the bank in the $25 million range as one of the top available starting pitchers out there. And Bader, if he rejects the $10 million mutual option the Phillies will certainly accept, will want to exceed that yearly income, while signing a multi-year deal somewhere.
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Ignoring the implications of signing Schwarber, Suárez, Bader, and Realmuto well into their 30s, the price tag for all of them together is a little rich. It could cost Philly more than $70 million next year to bring back those four players. And that's also ignoring the fact that they are likely wanting to sign some new players as well, perhaps in the bullpen or the outfield.
There aren't too many avenues to open up payroll either. The team seems determined to move on from Nick Castellanos — but it will be hard to find a taker for his $20 million in 2026. The same can be said for Taijuan Walker and the $18 million he'll be due in 2026.
The Phillies are hoping to get younger, and keep space for prospects Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford and Aidan Miller, among others. This will help them eventually get a lower payroll, but it's a process and none of those three have yet claimed a role with the big league club.
Middleton and company just sat and watched the $350 million Dodgers win their second straight World Series. Two other teams, the Yankees and the Mets, were also in excess of the $301 million top "surcharge" last year. New York and Los Angeles are the two biggest media markets in the United States. Philly is fifth. Would they really take a leap and join the big boys?
The most likely scenario is that the Phillies, led by Dave Dombrowski, who certainly wants to spend, will be able to afford two of their four free agents, while bringing in a few other more low-key outsiders. And perhaps, if they can move Castellanos, or more reasonably Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott, could open up a roster spot and resources to add via trade.
But keep that $55 million figure in mind. History suggests that could be their budget. How would you spend it?
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