How much are the Phillies really running it back every year?

The Phillies have made four straight postseasons and have increased their win total in each of those seasons. They've also regressed in their postseason runs, from a six-game World Series heartbreaker in 2022, to a seven-game gut-wrenching NLCS loss in 2023, to back-to-back losses in the NLDS in each of the last two years on the heels of back-to-back NL East titles.

Winning a World Series is hard. Getting hot in the postseason is more luck than science. The Phillies did it once and nearly ran out of gas. The front office — clearly — believes that sticking with a sure postseason participant and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again is their winning strategy.

Not like some other NL contenders such as the Dodgers, who continue to break the bank to add players like Kyle Tucker even after winning two straight championships. Or the Mets, who not only snatched Bo Bichette away from the Phillies at the 11th hour but also have made a trade to acquire power bat Luis Robert. Even the Cubs are trying to join the big boys, spending to acquire Alex Bregman.

In a press conference earlier this week, Phillies President Dave Dombrowski made it pretty clear he's not going to exceed the third luxury tax threshold to try and keep up.

"We're content where we are," he said, speaking after the Phillies officially announced the return of J.T. Realmuto.

The return… there have been a lot of returns lately.

It feels like the exact same team has trotted out to take the field at Citizens Bank Park every year since 2022. But is that really true?

We compared the postseason roster each October to the Opening Day rosters the following March to see if the Phillies really are running it back every season. Keep in mind, we took a few liberties — including overlooking minor early injuries to key players that kept them from being rightfully on the Opening Day slate.

Here's how much roster turnover the Phillies exercised in each of the last five years:

2022-to-2023: 38% roster turnover

Key departures: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Zack Eflin

Win increase: 3

2023-to-2024: 12% roster turnover

Key departures: Craig Kimbrel, Michael Lorenzen

Win increase: 5

2024-to-2025: 12% roster turnover

Key departures: Whit Merrifield, Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman

Win increase: 1

2025-to-2026: 27% roster turnover (projected)

Key departures: Matt Strahm, Ranger Suárez, Max Kepler, Jordan Romano

The Phillies are revamping their bullpen — just four of their eight key arms will be back for 2026. If we work under the assumption that Zack Wheeler is on the Opening Day roster, and that Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford are as well, the Phillies should be turning over around one quarter of their roster from a year ago.

Across the league, according to MLB.com (which formulated their rate of turnover using slightly different metrics than us based on plate appearances and innings pitched), the Phillies' were toward the bottom – but not at the bottom – in roster turnover rate from 2024 to 2025.

SABR took a look at roster turnover a few years ago as well, positing that teams are changing players more in modernity than they used to. The average roster turnover from 2010-to-2018, for example, was around 46%.

The Phillies have fallen way short of that in each of their past four offseasons but for various defensible reasons. The only way to roster players like Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler and others is to give them long-term deals. They've also had more regular season success than all but four teams in this current stretch (368 combined wins).

However, if we assume Nick Castellanos does get traded or released and doesn't make the 2026 Opening Day roster, only 10 Phillies players who were in the 2022 World Series would remain on the roster (26%). It feels higher than that, because those 10 guys are their two most prominent starting pitchers and six of their everyday hitters.

It might not be the pure definition of running things back — they have clearly given each season's roster a slight shake up — but the Phillies are both retaining more of their roster than the majority of MLB teams, and winning more by doing it.

The Phillies' brass prefers the known to the unknown, and is acting predictably, responsibly, and at times mind-numbingly boringly. The grass is always greener.

The Mets, for example, have won 20 fewer regular season games, have been to two fewer postseasons, and have retained just four players from the 2022 playoffs (if you include injured pitcher Tyler Megill). Both New York and Philly have won zero World Series in that span.

Philly is zigging — by sticking with what works. Will it work in 2026? Only time will tell.

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