The Philadelphia Eagles' are in the NFC Championship Game, and their opponent will be the Washington Commanders, in a rubber match after the two teams split this season. Here are our five things to watch, when the Eagles have the ball.
1) Can Jalen Hurts run?
In the first quarter of the Eagles-Commanders matchup Week 16, Saquon Barkley exploded for 7 carries for 109 yards and 2 TDs. The rest of the way he had 22 carries for 41 yards. After Hurts was knocked out of that game with a concussion, the Eagles got one more long run out of Barkley, but the Commanders would eventually adjust to the transition from Hurts to Kenny Pickett.
Shortly after the Eagles' loss to the Commanders, we showed a long thread of Pickett's day in Washington.
Now that we know there's a decent chance Jalen Hurts won't play against the Cowboys on Sunday, let's take a look at Kenny Pickett's performance last Sunday vs. the Commanders. This will be a very long thread, in chronological order 🧵
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) December 27, 2024
One of the themes of that game (and the above thread) was that the Commanders' defense identified that Pickett wasn't a threat to keep the ball on zone read plays. So the Commanders ignored him, and simply attacked Barkley, leading to a bunch of tackles for loss or other very small gains. Without an effective rushing attack, the Eagles struggled to move the ball, and they scored just 12 points on their final 9 drives in that game.
During the Eagles' Divisional Round win over the Rams, Hurts was tackled awkwardly, prompting a long visit to the blue medical tent.
He would emerge from the tent in time for the Eagles' next offensive series, and never missed a play, but he also didn't look quite right thereafter.
A healthy, able-to-run Hurts allows the Eagles' rushing attack to operate at a high level. If Hurts is not close to 100 percent as a runner, expect the Commanders to ignore the threat of him as a runner and key in solely on Barkley.
2) We know Saquon Barkley can run
After resting up Week 18, Barkley has 51 carries for 324 yards (6.4 YPC) and 2 TDs in the Eagles' two playoff games.
In the first Eagles-Commanders matchup, the Commanders did a nice job keeping Barkley in check for much of the night, and then… bang… two touchdown runs in under 30 seconds. TD run No. 1:Great blocks by Lane Johnson and Mekhi Becton on that run.On the Commanders' ensuing possession, Reed Blankenship picked off Jayden Daniels, and then two plays later, Barkley struck again with a 39-yard TD run:Watch Cam Jurgens on that play. He tosses a DB like a rag doll, and when the DB gets up to try to chase Barkley, Jurgens dumps him to the ground again.In Week 16, as noted above, Barkley had a long run (68 yards) before the Commanders would eventually bottle him up the rest of the day. Here was that long run:
Barkley's stats in those two games:
• Week 11: 26 carries, 146 yards (5.6 YPC), 2 TDs.
• Week 16: 29 carries, 150 yards (5.2 YPC), 2 TDs.
Interestingly, 185 of Barkley's 296 rushing yards (62.5%) against the Commanders this season either came in the fourth quarter of the Week 11 matchup or the first quarter of the Week 16 matchup. They've been able to bottle him up for long stretches, but Barkley has had his explosive moments.
It probably can't just be the Saquon Barkley show on Sunday. The Eagles are going to need help from the passing game.
3) Can Jalen Hurts pass?
The Eagles are averaging 92.5 net passing yards per game in the playoffs. That is the worst in the NFL these playoffs:
- Lions: 320
- Commanders: 283.5
- Steelers: 251
- Rams: 246.5
- Texans: 224
- Chargers: 211
- Ravens: 202.5
- Packers: 195
- Bills: 193.5
- Buccaneers: 183
- Vikings: 163
- Chiefs: 162
- Broncos: 145
- Eagles: 92.5
Yes, the Eagles haven't turned the ball over yet in the playoffs, while turnovers have been the reason many of the teams above are sipping on daiquiris in Cabo right now instead of playing in the Conference Championship Round.
But, we can all acknowledge that the passing game is a mess right now, right? Hurts is holding onto the ball for an eternity, he's taking too many sacks, and he is not letting it rip to receivers that are open down the field. It will be on the offensive staff to figure out how to get Hurts back into some kind of rhythm, and it'll be on Hurts to, you know, just start playing better.
4) Can A.J. Brown get going?
Brown didn't have any drops during the regular season, but he had two against the Rams. The first drop was in the first quarter, when Hurts led Brown into what would have been a Ram sandwich.
Hurts was sacked on the next play and the Eagles punted, so that drop helped kill a drive.
And then of course Brown had a drop on a play that he could normally make in his sleep.
That drop likely cost the Eagles 7 points.
In two playoff games, Brown has 3 catches on 10 targets for 24 yards.
Barkley is playing like the superstar that he is, and the Eagles need Brown to play like the star that he is, too.
5) Jake Elliott, man, what's up?
Elliott has missed at least one kick in each of the Eagles' last three games, and four total. Those four misses were all hooked to the left:
Jake Elliott's 4 misses in the last 3 games all look the same. pic.twitter.com/bLMWckO4gT
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) January 21, 2025
It's like he's been watching my golf game off the tee and successfully replicated it.
Elliott's two missed PATs against the Rams almost cost the Eagles their season, if the Rams had been able to finish off their final drive with a TD. Still, Elliott is the best kicker in Eagles history, and the Eagles have decided to stick with him.
But, obviously, Elliott's kicking remains a major concern.
MORE: NFC Hierarchy/Obituary
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