It's only been about a month, but there's been a clear contrast on the field for the Phillies when they face good teams, and bad teams.
Will they be able to make any noise in October? They have to get there first.
And if they can continue to handle the lowly non-contenders on their schedule, it's actually a recipe for punching a postseason ticket.
So far in 2025, the Phillies are 11-6 (.647 win percentage) against teams below .500, but 6-7 against teams in playoff positioning. This includes a them taking two of three from the Dodgers and getting swept by the Mets. For some historical perspective, last season the Phillies were eight games above 500 against good teams, and 20 above .500 against bad ones — fueling them to 95 wins.
The rest of the way this sseason, the Phils have an average strength of schedule, right in the middle of the pack at 16th hardest (via baseball reference).
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The problem is, there are 18 teams currently above .500 in the early part of the season — and if we add the Braves to that list (a team we expect to be in contention at the end of the year after a slow start), the schedule quickly becomes intimidating for the Phillies.
Obviously the pretenders, teams like the Reds, Royals and Athletics, could fall off as the season progresses.
Taking advantage of a young and inexperienced Nationals team, like Philly has taking their most recent series against the division foes, is great. But Philly will need to be able to do it against the Mets, whom they face 10 more times, and the Padres (six games), Giants (six games) and Yankees (three games) too.
Of the Phillies remaining 132 games, just 51 are against teams currently below .500. They'll face losing squads in 14 of their next 20 — giving them a little time to climb back into the playoff picture, before a brutal stretch awaits at the end of June with 21 consecutive games against probable playoff teams, culminating in a road trip to face the Giants and Padres in California.
The schedule will test the Phillies, as it's meant to. And perhaps they'll find a winning formula in the bullpen and a consistent approach at the plate in time to handle the best the big leagues have to offer. Otherwise, a repeat as NL East champs will be a tall order.
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