Will Phillies offseason plans be hampered by massive payroll?

It costs money to win a World Series. At least it did in 2024.

It should come as no surprise that the three teams with the highest luxury tax bills last season were all in their respective championship series. Money can buy success if it's done the right way.

The Phillies did have a small tax bill — their $262 million payroll was just over the first tier — and they paid $10 million extra for it. If they want to be hanging with the big boys, the repeat "offenders" paying tens of millions, they'll have that opportunity this coming year.

Entering their third straight year with a higher payroll than the threshold, the Phils will face the following added to their bill in 2025:

• 50 percent tax on every dollar spent in the first luxury tax tier ($241 million)
• 62 percent in the second tier ($261 million)
• 92.5 percent in the third tier ($281 million)
• 110 percent in the fourth tier ($301 million)

Here's a look at the highest tax bills from last year (via spotrac):

The Dodgers beat the Yankees in the World Series last month, and the Dodgers also beat the Mets in the NLCS. So much for the upstart Diamondbacks and Rangers.

As things currently stand, the Phillies are already committed to paying that same $262 million in salaries and benefits next season, which will balloon to $281.5 million with around $23 million going to the league in luxury taxes, via Cots Contracts. And this is before the team picks up the phone to see if they can get Juan Soto.

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It's also before they round out their relief corps — which currently is absent Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, both free agents.

Not to mention they are probably going to be bringing in at least one starting pitcher. The payroll is going to increase.

The question really is how crazy are the Phillies willing to get?

Here's a look at the top 10 salaries the Phillies will already pay for next season:

That's over $223 million for 10 players. An MLB roster has 26 of them on it.

If the Phillies add two top-line bullpen arms — let's just estimate that costing $20 million in total — they add a middle of the road starter — we'll estimate that at $8 million — and they swing for the fences and somehow land Soto at $45 million a year, that puts the pre-tax payroll for the Phillies at $335 million. The luxury tax they'll be forced to pay could put that number well over $400 million for the 2025 season.

John Middleton brought on some new minority owners this offseason. Is this why? Is it an infusion of cash to help the team throw as much money as it can on trying to make good on Bryce Harper's prime?

If the Phillies do add big ticket names, they could also try and shed some salaries around the margins, like Bryson Stott or Alec Bohm or Brandon Marsh, all team-controlled hitters who could be trade chips. It seems less likely they can move a Nick Castellanos type and his $20 million a year salary but you never know.

Improving the Phillies and really making them into competitors who will challenge the Yankees and Dodgers next year will be an expensive notion. And with hundred of millions of dollars already committed, they don't have much of a choice but to go all in.

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