Last season, the Phillies rarely deviated from having Kyle Schwarber lead off, letting the DH set the tone 149 times in 162 games. It worked, of course, as the team won 95 games and dominated for most of the spring and summer.
Schwarber led off 108 times in 2023 and 123 times in 2022, good for 78% of regular season games during his tenure in Philadelphia.
Over that span, he set records for leadoff home runs in a single season and was able to redefine the role, using walks and productive at-bats, combined with pure power, to compensate for a low batting average and lack of base-running prowess.
In 2025, with the Phillies looking for new ways to maximize the loaded returning roster they have, it seems more and more apparent that the lineup could afford to deviate a bit from day to day. And while Schwarber will likely still be hitting leadoff sometimes, the Phillies might be able to get more out of his power stroke if it's further back in the lineup.
Who should Rob Thomson be tagging to lead things off the most this coming season?
Let's start by eliminating a few people…
Who won't be leading off:
• Bryce Harper: Earlier this week, Harper told reporters “I’ll take the extra at-bats, but I don’t want to hit leadoff.” That pretty much ends that conversation, though he might hit more in the 2-spot this season, allowing Thomson to split up Harper's and Schwarber's lefty bats in the lineup, should Schwarber hit cleanup.
• Nick Castellanos: Castellanos has never led-off as a Phillie and has only ever done it two times in his career.
• J.T. Realmuto: The Phillies' everyday catcher has had exactly 23 at-bats in the 1-hole in Philly, reaching base only two times. He'll be slotted somewhere between the 2- and 7-spot as he usually is.
• Alec Bohm: Bohm has only led off once in his career, in 2022. While he does have some of the characteristics of a leadoff man — he can get on base, runs okay, takes pitches — the Phillies still see him as a middle-of-the-order bat.
• Johan Rojas: The 24-year-old possesses elite speed, a virtue for a traditional leadoff hitter. But he has a career on-base percentage of .298, which basically eliminates him from the conversation.
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Who should lead off?
• Kyle Schwarber: No one has hit more leadoff home runs to start a game than Schwarber, who had 15 of them last season. He hit 38 while slotted in the leadoff spot in all and has 151 career home runs when hitting in the 1-spot. He also finds a way to get on base. Schwarber had a .366 on-base clip, the second-best on the team behind Harper in 2024. His 106 walks led the National League.
He can get on base, and makes the most of those extra at-bats. But those home runs, are they a waste of potential runs batted in? Despite having one of the biggest power bats in the entire sport, Schwarber has only hit cleanup 29 times as a Phillie. It's worth exploring a different way to utilize his skillset. Drawing walks hitting fourth, amid this talented batting order, is still going to help generate runs.
• Trea Turner: Turner is really as prototypical a leadoff hitter as you can find, and many expected that he would be in that role when he came to the Phillies. He spent the majority of his time with the Nationals and Dodgers leading off, and has a career slash of .302/.351/.485 while doing so. With portions of the last two seasons spent on the struggle bus and chasing too many pitches, the leadoff spot might be back on his resume.
"I think it would be fun, it would be a little different,” Turner said in Clearwater this week, via MLB.com. “I haven't done it for a few years now. Kinda get back to a little bit more speed. You take a few more pitches here or there. For me, I always looked at it as Bryce is hitting behind me, so I'm ready to hit. Obviously, they're coming after me. They don't want to face him. That’s kind of how I’ve always approached the two-hole, just because the three-hole is another great at-bat. I think when you're leading off, that label kind of puts a little bit of perspective on it, the way pitchers pitch you."
• Bryson Stott: A third realistic option is the second baseman Stott, who is the team's most productive base-stealer. But beyond that, he has plate discipline and sees a lot of pitches. The only two Phillies hitters last season who saw more than four pitches per at-bat were Schwarber and Stott (both in the top 40 for pitches seen in MLB). But more than seeing pitches, he doesn't chase like most of the rest of the team does. Stott's swinging strike percentage last season was just 11.5%, by far the best on the roster. For contrast, Harper was 22.5% and Schwarber 21.9%. Stott doesn't beat himself.
If Stott is healthy and is able to raise his on-base percentage just a tad, he'll be a leading candidate to lead off for years to come.
• Brandon Marsh: Marsh's resume as a leadoff hitter creates a compelling case, as he gets on base at a .330 clip and has led off 26 games in his four-year career. But his brutal righty-lefty splits, .269/.345/.441 against right-handed pitchers and .216/.276/.306 vs. left-handers makes him a platoon option at best and he would likely be pulled from the game when a specialist reliever enters.
• Max Kepler: Kepler is actually a candidate to lead off, but not a better one than the three aforementioned Phillies. The 32-year-old recent signee has led off in 194 games during his career, but he only hit .235 with a .325 on base rate when he did. He's got the speed to steal an occasional base, but is more of an option for a team in a pinch, not one flush with options.
MORE: A healthy Bryson Stott will be looking to bounce back at second
The ideal order
Just for fun, and mindful of Thomson's desire to construct a lineup that separates left and right-handed hitters the best it can, and that allows for table-setting, here's my ideal batting order for 2025:
- Trea Turner, SS
- Bryce Harper, 1B*
- Alec Bohm, 3B
- Kyle Schwarber, DH*
- J.T. Realmuto, C
- Bryson Stott, 2B*
- Nick Castellanos, RF
- Brandon Marsh, CF*
- Max Kepler, LF*
*left-handed hitter
If/when Rojas plays center, he'll hit ninth with Kepler moving up to 8th.
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