It was no secret that the Phillies were out on Juan Soto.
It was also no secret that rival Mets were probably going to sign him, as their owner Steve Cohen showed he was willing to spend more than three quarters of a billion dollars to bolster his team.
There are a few different ways to look at the Mets' $765 million, 15-year deal with Soto. And Phillies fans will be looking at it for years to come — at least for five (he has an opt-out after five seasons) and possibly until 2040.
That's a lot of dough
The first and most obvious take is, holy crap, that's so much money. The roughly $51 million a year Soto will be making is the most in baseball and nearly double what Bryce Harper is making. The total contract is the highest in the history of professional sports.
The Mets will very likely become repeat offenders for the luxury tax — that's unavoidable. It's pretty apparent the ownership of the Mets doesn't really care. But down the line they will. Long term, this could totally eviscerate the Mets but short-term, it's going to make them into real contenders.
If the Phillies spent this much on one player, would fans feel like it was worth it?
The Mets are going for it
The Mets are actually still a little below the luxury tax with their total team payroll (roughly $224 million, with $16 million to spare), but it seems likely they'll blow by it. They still need to figure out whether to bring back Pete Alonso at first base, and a lot of their pitching staff.
If they are willing to spend $765 million on one player, they're willing to spend more. It's John Middleton's "stupid money" on steroids. The Mets should be in on a lot of other free agents this offseason.
The NL East is going to be a gauntlet
The Mets are going to be threats to win the NL East next season. So will the Braves, who will return healthy after nearly earning a Wild Card spot last season when they were missing a bevy of key players. And the Phillies, fresh off their first NL East title in more than a decade will also be expected playoff participants.
Behind the Dodgers (+220), the three top NL East teams hold three of the four best odds to win the NL Pennant according to FanDuel, the Braves at +410, Mets at +420 and Phillies at +550.
Does this stunt the market?
The natural assumption is that the free agency floodgates are about to fly open — but that might not be the case due to this monster contract. The next top outfielders available, Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander, have to be looking at their agents saying "get me more money."
How will the market adjust? Will the Phillies be able to land a top-tier impact player like Alex Bregman in the wake of Soto? The Phillies once made market-setting signings not too long ago, giving Trea Turner $27 million a year and Zack Wheeler $42 million. Those look like bargains just a few short years later.
It's also worth mentioning that the big market teams are seemingly starting to separate from the smaller market ones even more than usual. What impact will that have on overall competitiveness when the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees are the teams most often bringing in the best players?
Your move, Phillies
If the Phillies are serious about contending, they need to act. What kind of signal would it be sending to fans and the players on the team if they decide to stand pat after the team that knocked them out of the playoffs got this much better?
The pressure might be the highest on Philadelphia's front office than any team right now. Will they move Alec Bohm and make an infield upgrade? Will they find a way to improve an outfield that is inconsistent and frustrating? Will they spend money on a fifth starter, or a bullpen that will be losing two if its best arms?
The recipe for winning a World Series isn't a hard one — on paper. Do enough to get to the postseason and then get red hot at the right time. They almost did it in 2022. They regressed in 2023 and 2024. The Phillies need to figure out how to get back there before it's too late, and this might be the most important inflection point they've had.
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