For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 9 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Texans at Jets (-2): Wait, what? The Jets are favored in this matchup? Why? How? Is C.J. Stroud hurt or something? (Checks injury report)… Nope. The Texans have some issues, notably the interior of their offensive line, and they're pretty banged-up at receiver, but, I mean, the Jets have lost five straight and are averaging 18.8 points per game. How are people still fooled by these frauds? Give me the Texans to win, and if you're going to give me 2 points as well I'll take them.
Cowboys at Falcons (-2.5): After heading into their bye fresh off a 47-9 spanking at the hands of the Lions, the Cowboys were pretty easily handled by the 49ers, even if the 30-24 final score indicated that it was a close game. This is a team on the verge of a freefall, with Jerry Jones publicly questioning Mike McCarthy's offensive scheme, McCarthy being put in a position where he had to disagree, and Trevon Diggs confronting a reporter who questioned his effort.
Beyond the drama, DeMarcus Lawrence remains on IR, Micah Parsons (ankle) and DaRon Bland (foot) still aren't practicing, while Diggs (calf) and Zack Martin (shoulder) didn't practice on Wednesday either.
A 2.5-point line indicates that these two teams are roughly equal. I don't love this Falcons team by any stretch, but these two teams are most certainly not equal at the moment. I'll lay the 2.5 points.
Commanders (-3.5) at Giants: After losing Andrew Thomas, the Giants simply can't protect their already bad quarterback, and defensively they can't stop the run or the pass. Spoiler: They're going to lose a lot of games this season (again).
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The Commanders had a weird game Week 8 in which they mostly outplayed the Bears, but settled for a bunch of short field goals, and nearly lost. They'll get back to putting points on the board in bulk against this horrid Giants team. Laying 3.5 points is a bargain.
Chargers (-1.5) at Browns: A 1.5-point spread would have been a no-brainer pick a couple weeks ago, but the Browns are at least functional now with Jameis Winston taking over as the starter for Deshaun Watson. I'll take the Chargers to win, but I can't lay the points.
Saints (-7.5) at Panthers: The Saints have lost six straight games by a combined score of 177-94, and I actually considered laying 7.5 points on the road in Carolina. That's how bad this Panthers team is.
Dolphins at Bills (-5.5): The Bills destroyed the Dolphins in Miami Week 2 when the Dolphins still had Tua Tagovailoa, and they're going to do the same to them Week 9 in Buffalo.
Broncos at Ravens (-9): The Broncos are one of the NFL's surprise teams this season at 5-3, but this matchup will serve as a reminder that they are nowhere close to contending in the AFC.
Raiders at Bengals (-7): The Bengals have gotten a reputation this season for their offense playing well, but being let down by their defense. I think that was true earlier in the season, but their offense has scored 48 combined points in their last three games, and is far too dependent on Ja'Marr Chase making otherworldly plays. I'm certainly not picking this trash Raiders team, though.
Patriots at Titans (-3.5): Other than draft dorks, who cares?
Jaguars at Eagles (-7.5): The Jaguars are the Eagles' fourth opponent during their four-game anti-gauntlet.
• Browns (2-6): W
• At Giants (2-6): W
• At Bengals (3-5): W
• Jaguars (2-6): TBD
The Jags have the 32nd-ranked defense in DVOA, their two best receivers are hurt, and they have already signaled they are waiving the white flag on their season after trading their starting LT to the Vikings.
We probably don't have to go too deep here. The Eagles are playing better and should handle the Jags.
Bears at Cardinals (-1): I'm rather proud of my Cardinals outright pick in Miami last week, and have decided that Arizona is my official "Fraudometer™️ team of the 2024 season. What's the Fraudometer™️? Well, if you can beat the Fraudometer™️ team, you might not be frauds. If you can't, you are. Put me down for the Bears being frauds.
Rams (-1.5) at Seahawks: The Rams are getting healthier and have a chance to get to 0.500 after a 1-4 start, with wins over the 49ers and Seahawks in their pocket. This is a sneaky important game in the NFC playoff race. I'd much rather have this on SNF than Colts-Vikings.
Lions (-3.5) at Packers: All eight of the Lions' games this season have been played indoors, and they have a three-game losing streak outdoors going back to last season, so I'm kinda curious to see if their offense still looks like an unstoppable juggernaut in Green Bay that it has been during its last four games. I'm not about to pick against them, though.
Colts at Vikings (-5.5): When Eagles-Jaguars got flexed out of Sunday Night Football, I was so happy that I didn't even bother caring about what got put in there instead. Apparently it's this crappy matchup. The Vikings got out to a hot start before cooling off, while the Colts have a base level of competency because of their offensive line, but they have benched second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco.
Give me the Vikings to win, but I kinda like the Colts better with Flacco than I do with Richardson and I'll take the 5.5 points.
Buccaneers at Chiefs (-9): It's just going to be too hard for the Buccaneers to compete with good teams without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Chiefs should cruise to 8-0.
Bye week: 49ers, Steelers.
• Picks against the spread: Texans (+2), Falcons (-2.5), Commanders (-3.5), Bills (-5.5), Cardinals (-1), Colts (+5.5).
• 2024 season, straight up: 84-39 (0.683)
• 2024 season, ATS: 31-19-2 (0.615)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 422-355-21 (0.542)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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