For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 7 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Broncos (-2.5) at Saints: The Saints will be without WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, C Cesar Ruiz, and LB Pete Werner. Also listed as doubtful are QB Derek Carr and TE Taysom Hill. They have also looked like like one of the worst teams in the NFL after they got out to a 2-0 start.
Patriots "at" Jaguars (-5.5), in London: What did the British do to deserve this turd of a matchup?
From a selfish perspective, I'm rooting for (a) a Jaguars loss in this game and (b) for this game to do awful TV ratings, so that the NFL flexes the Eagles-Jags Week 9 game out of Sunday Night Football.
Eagles (-3) at Giants: It's hard to pick the Eagles with any level of confidence at this point, and the Giants are improved in some ways, but…
- The Giants haven't been able to stop the run over the last three years, and they're allowing 5.2 yards per carry in 2024.
- They lost Andrew Thomas for the season. He was their only clearly above average starting offensive lineman, and they don't have any good options to replace him.
- The starting CB duo of Deonte Banks and Cor'Dale Flott have allowed a combined 39 receptions on 57 targets for 536 yards, 5 TDs, and 0 INTs this season.
- Their special teams might be even worse than the Eagles', mainly due to injuries to their kicker and punter.
It's also worth noting that former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale often gave Jalen Hurts fits. Martindale is gone.It'll probably be another ugly game, with the Eagles scraping by. 23-21.
Seahawks at Falcons (-2.5): After getting out to a 3-0 start, the Seahawks have dropped three straight and looked bad in all three games. I don't love this extremely lucky Falcons team, but they're better than Seattle. I'll even lay the 2.5 points.
Titans at Bills (-9): The Bills pretty much had to trade for a wide receiver, and I thought they got a pretty good bargain on Amari Cooper, who cost a third-round pick and virtually nothing on their salary cap. He likely won't help much right away, but they won't need him against this crap Titans team that can't score points.
Bengals (-5.5) at Browns: The Bengals look like the Eagles of the AFC, in terms of underperforming to expectations. And yet, I kinda can't turn this game down. The Bengals are desperate for wins after getting out to an 0-3 start to their season, and the Browns have already raised the white flag by trading Cooper.
The Eagles played like crap last Sunday against the Browns, and yet, they dominated the team stats, and the game was really only close because of a blocked field goal that was returned for a TD. The Browns showed very little in that game to assure me that they can compete with any team that has any semblance of talent.
Texans at Packers (-2.5): This is a very fun matchup between AFC and NFC up-and-comers with good, young quarterbacks. It's too bad this game or Lions-Vikings isn't on primetime.
Dolphins at Colts (-3): Both of these teams are extremely banged-up, and have been all year, really. The Colts have been gamers despite their injuries, while the Dolphins have lost by three scores to non-contenders like the Seahawks and Titans.
A three-point line implies that these two teams are equal, and I just don't see how the Colts are on a level as low as the Dolphins'. I can't pull the trigger on a three-point line in this case, however, because I have concerns about the Dolphins coming off their bye, especially in a matchup between two injury-ravaged teams. I'll be mad later when the Colts win by 20.
Lions at Vikings (-2.5): The NFC North is the best division in football, with a combined record of 17-5 (16-4 against other divisions), and a combined point differential of +211! This is a matchup of huge importance, even if it's only Week 7.
In this particular NFCN matchup, the ultra-creative Ben Johnson will try to solve Brian Flores' uber-aggressive defensive scheme. That'll be a fun battle of the minds.
- MORE EAGLES
- Eagles-Giants Week 7 injury report, with analysis
- Eagles power ranking roundup: Week 7
- Eagles film review: Cooper DeJean's encouraging first start
When you ask the very simple question, "Which team is better?" I think most would say the Lions, and I wouldn't disagree. Of course, I think people also probably said that about Super Bowl contenders like the 49ers, Texans, and Packers, all of whom the Vikings beat. This is just the next test for Minnesota.
The Vikings are coming off of their bye, which is usually viewed as a good thing, but I think that in the Vikings' case it isn't, as there's a chance their momentum could be slowed. I also didn't exactly love what I saw out of Sam Darnold in the Vikings' win over the Jets in London before their bye.
I suppose I'm a little guilty of continuing to doubt the Vikings here when all evidence suggests that they're legit, but I just like the Lions more. 🤷♂️
Raiders at Rams (-7): The Rams are beginning to get some of their best players back from injury, while the Raiders are already in sell mode after trading Davante Adams.
Panthers at Commanders (-8): If you read my picks each week, you know that I hate laying a lot of points, but the Panthers have losses of 37, 23, 10, 26, and 18 points this season. They have a point differential of -100. The next-closest team to them is the Jags, at -65.
In case you hadn't noticed, the Commanders can score points, so sure, I'll lay 8. That feels like a pretty good bargain, honestly.
Chiefs at 49ers (-1.5): In 2021, the 49ers lost to the Rams in the NFC Championship game. In 2022, they swept the Rams.
In 2022, they got destroyed by the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. In a regular season game in 2023, they stomped all over the Eagles.
So the Niners do have a knack for getting revenge in small-stakes games after devastating playoff losses, which gives me some pause here, but ultimately if you're going to give me Patrick Mahomes and points, I'll take it.
Jets (-2) at Steelers: During a meeting in which Aaron Rodgers was lecturing the team about the threat of Spanish- and Chinese-speaking people joining the American military and then sabotaging it from within, it was announced that the Jets were trading for Davante Adams.
Adams will upgrade the offense to some degree, though he isn't what he once was. But ultimately, the Jets are delusional if they think they're Super Bowl contenders, and they're throwing good money after bad. I'll take the Steelers at home with some points, please, even if they're now starting Russell Wilson.
Ravens (-3.5) at Buccaneers: The Ravens have racked up over 400 yards of offense in all but one of their games this season, and their offense is rolling during their current four-game winning streak:
| Ravens opponent | Points | Yards |
| Cowboys | 28 | 456 |
| Bills | 35 | 427 |
| Bengals | 41 | 520 |
| Commanders | 30 | 484 |
| AVERAGE | 33.5 | 471.8 |
I like this Bucs team quite a bit, but I'm not betting against the Ravens' offensive production.
Chargers (-2.5) at Cardinals: So we get a Broncos-Saints Thursday night game and a Chargers-Cardinals Monday night game this week, huh? Yuck.
Bye week: Bears, Cowboys.
• Picks against the spread: Broncos (-2.5), Falcons (-2.5), Bengals (-5.5), Lions (+2.5), Commanders (-8), Chiefs (+1.5), Steelers (+2).
• 2024 season, straight up: 58-34 (0.630)
• 2024 season, ATS: 20-16-2 (0.553)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 411-352-21 (0.538)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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