For the gambling degenerates, here are the rest of my Week 13 NFL picks (Thanksgiving and Black Friday picks here). To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Titans at Commanders (-6): After starting 7-2, the Commanders have lost three straight and have gone from the 2 seed to just trying to hold onto the final wildcard berth. They should get right against this bad Titans team, but I'm not so sure they should be touchdown favorites over anyone right now, especially after looking so listless against a very bad Cowboys team last week.
Chargers (-1) at Falcons: The Chargers are 8th in DVOA, the Falcons are 19th. The Chargers have a +68 point differential, the Falcons are -30. The Chargers are just better and should be favored by more than a point, so, you know, I'll lay a point.
Steelers at Bengals (-3): If the Bengals were good, they'd win more games. If the Steelers weren't good, they'd lose more games. You're welcome for this super reductive analysis.
Colts (-2.5) at Patriots: Is there any reason to watch this game? I do admire this guy for getting fired up for it:
Colts vs Patriots 2024 Season Week 13 – Team Song Anthem
Vote for Me for NFL Fan of the Year!https://t.co/5bqBAzjp8I#Colts #newenglandpatriots #Pats #Patriots #Indianapoliscolts #TeamAnthem #Weekly #2024Season #Sports #ParodySong #youtuber #youtube #youtubesinger #Football… pic.twitter.com/8nBDaaXzaS— Seth "Da Flow" Irskens (@Ice8859) November 29, 2024
Dedication.
Texans (-3.5) at Jaguars: The Texans just aren't that good, but they get to feast on the worst division in football. The Jags have a yardage differential this season of -1352.
Cardinals at Vikings (-3.5): I like Brian Flores' chances of getting after Kyler Murray with his attacking defense and forcing him into mistakes.
Seahawks at Jets (-1): Vegas has been overrating the Jets all season long. Why stop now? I don't even like this Seahawks team, but they're sure as hell better than fraud-ass Aaron Rodgers and the Jets.
Buccaneers (-5.5) at Panthers: The Bucs are going to win the NFC South. Four of their five wins this season were blowouts, so they have the firepower to put bad teams away, which is what they'll do in Carolina
Rams (-2.5) at Saints: The Rams have been a team all year that folks (self included) have said, "Watch out for this team if they get healthy." Well, they're healthy, but when taking a hard look at them in advance of Rams-Eagles, I came away pretty unimpressed. They have good skill players and intriguing young pass rushers, but their offensive line stinks and they're really light upfront along their defensive line. They're just not a very physical team, and can be pushed around.
I'm calling their bluff. Give me this crappy Saints team at home over them.
Eagles at Ravens (-3): The Ravens are ranked first in offensive DVOA (1st in passing, and 1st in rushing). They're averaging 30.3 points per game, and in their eight wins they have scored 28, 30, 30, 35, 35, 41, 41, and 41 points. Lamar Jackson took home his second MVP award last season, and he's currently second in MVP odds this season. He's still a major weapon with his legs, and as a passer he has thrown 27 TDs vs. 3 INTs this season to a diversified set of skill position players.
Meanwhile, Derrick Henry has 1325 rushing yards this season (he's on pace for 1877) with 13 TDs, and he is averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The Ravens are as difficult an offense to defend as any in the NFL this season.
Of course, the Eagles' defense has been awesome this season as well, particularly during their current seven-game winning streak. They haven't allowed 300 or more total yards in a game since September, and over their last 6 games they actually have more rushing yards (1396) than their opponents have total yards (1314). It'll be strength on strength when the Ravens have the ball.
However, Baltimore has been less impressive defensively. They're ranked 15th in defensive DVOA (18th vs. the pass, 9th vs. the run). They are allowing 277.7 passing yards per game, which is second-worst in the NFL. That's the bad. The good is that they are allowing just 77.9 rushing yards per game (second-best in the NFL) and 3.5 yards per rush attempt (best in the NFL).
The Eagles' strength offensively is their rushing attack, and while they have been able to consistently run it well against good run defenses during the Nick Sirianni era, they are likely going to need Jalen Hurts to play at very high level as a passer to win this game.
While I believe that Saquon Barkley will get his share of touches and play well, I also believe that the Ravens will keep him from going off completely like he has in so many other games this season. The game will be in Hurts' hands, and with a hampered DeVonta Smith I think the Ravens just have a little bit more firepower and they pull off a close win.
49ers at Bills (-5.5): The 49ers will be without the following starters on Sunday:
- LT Trent Williams
- DE Nick Bosa
- WR Brandon Aiyuk
- DT Javon Hargrave
- S Talanoa Hufanga
- LB Dre Greenlaw
- CB Deommodore Lenoir
- LG Aaron Banks
- DT Jordan Elliott
- P Mitch Wishnowski
And Brock Purdy is questionable with an injury to his throwing shoulder.
Sure, I'll take Bills.
Browns at Broncos (-5.5): I thought the NFL could flex bad games like this out of Monday night? I mean, I'm not complaining. I certainly wouldn't want to be driving home from Baltimore at 3:00 a.m. if Eagles-Ravens got flexed.
• Picks against the spread: Chargers (-1), Steelers (+3), Seahawks (+1), Buccaneers (-5.5), Bills (-5.5).
• 2024 season, straight up: 129-54 (0.705)
• 2024 season, ATS: 43-32-2 (0.571)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 433-368-21 (0.540)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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