Week 11 NFL straight up, against the spread, and survivor pool picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 11 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Jets at Patriots (-13): In the survivor pool I'm in, there are 16 survivors (including me 💁‍♂️), 146 dead. To my surprise, half of the survivors have already used Patri*ts. I was expecting it to be fewer. So, if you're still alive in your survivor pool, and your pool is anything like mine, this could be a good week to advance while other survivors get knocked out if you still have the Patri*ts at your disposal.

And you know what? Give me the hedge. I'll take the Jets (+13). If the Patri*ts somehow get knocked off, at least I'll have gotten an ATS pick correct in my quest to get back to 0.500 on the season. And maybe I'll advance in my pool PLUS get a pick right, you know, if the Pats win by less than 13. Logical no brainer.

Commanders at Dolphins (-2.5): The Dolphins have looked competent in recent weeks, while the Commanders are in a disastrous free fall. They're a bottom five NFL team right now. I'll lay the 2.5 points with the Dolphins.

This game will be played in Madrid, by the way. I'm jealous of these two teams' beat reporters. Well, for one week, anyway.

Packers (-7) at Giants: I'm always wary of teams playing well for one week after their head coach is fired. I do believe that that phenomenon is real in some ways. Add in that the Giants are starting Jameis Winston, who is capable of throwing for 5 TDs or 5 INTs on any given Sunday, because he's so willing to just let the ball rip down the field. I'm going to pick the Packers here, of course, but if I'm a Packers fan, I'd much rather have had the Giants on my schedule at some other point in the season.

Buccaneers at Bills (-6): The Bucs always play close games, and this Bills team is overrated. I suppose I'll take the Bills to win, but give me the Bucs and the six points.

Bengals at Steelers (-5.5): It's going to be fun watching as the Steelers slowly squander the 3.5-game lead they had over the Ravens after Week 6. That lead is already down to one game. But, I can't pick against them in this matchup against a Bengals defense that would have trouble stopping some college offenses.

Texans (-6.5) at Titans: I kind of like the resiliency of this Texans team that started 0-3 but has climbed back into playoff contention. They're 4-5, but they're actually in the top quarter of the NFL with a +54 point differential. They should pretty easily handle this abysmal Titans team.

Bears at Vikings (-3): Oh man, dilemma here. I think the Bears are nowhere near as good as their 6-3 record would indicate, and yet I have no faith at all in J.J. McCarthy. The Bears give up a lot of yards, but they also do a good job of pressuring quarterbacks into bad INTs.

Panthers at Falcons (-3.5): It's funny to me that the Panthers run the ball better than this Falcons team that has built their roster to try to be an elite rushing offense. I think both of these teams are bad. The Falcons have more talent, but somehow the Panthers play better as a team.

Chargers (-3) at Jaguars: The Chargers have already played four road games, and somehow the Jaguars will be their hardest road opponent. Their previous four road games were against the Raiders, Giants, Dolphins, and Titans. That's basically a who's who of teams with coaching staffs on the hot seat. The Chargers are more talented. Give me them.

Seahawks at Rams (-3): This is an enormous game in the battle for the NFC West that could also have major ramifications on NFC playoff seeding. Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold are both having MVP-caliber seasons, but Stafford is making fewer mistakes, as he hasn't thrown an INT since Week 3 in Philly. Darnold is slinging it, but he's more prone to throw one to the defense. I like the Rams' chances of winning the turnover battle.

49ers (-3) at Cardinals: The Cardinals are 3-6 and their season is effectively over, but they're also not really that bad a football team. Meanwhile, the Niners' injuries continue to accumulate, and Christian McCaffrey has been getting overworked all season long. They won a bunch of games against bad teams early in the season, but I think they're ripe to fall apart during the back half of the season.

Ravens (-7.5) at Browns: As noted above, I believe the Ravens are going to catch and pass the Steelers in the AFC North with a healthy Lamar Jackson. The Browns tend to give the Ravens trouble, but it's hard to get past the extreme discrepancy between the two quarterbacks in this matchup.

Chiefs (-3.5) at Broncos: The Broncos have won seven straight, and yet, they kinda feel like frauds. But also, the Chiefs are coming off of their bye, and we know Andy Reid's history with that.

Lions at Eagles (-2.5): The Lions have arguably the top running back duo in the NFL, a talented set of pass catchers with diversified skill sets, a great offensive tackle duo, a solid-if-unspectacular quarterback, a premier pass rusher, and other playmakers on both sides of the ball and on special teams. A season ago, they finished 15-2 with a +222 point differential, both of which were best in the NFL. They already have more losses this season than they did a year ago, but the team remains mostly intact and they're still highly dangerous Super Bowl contenders.

But, they're banged up. On the defensive side of the ball, they will likely be without their best outside corner (D.J. Reed) and ballhawk safety (Kerby Joseph), and possibly also their CB2 (Terrion Arnold). On the offensive side of the ball, the interior of their line is shaky, as their starting LG is on IR, their All-Pro C last season retired during the summer, and their starting RG is a rookie. Also, TE Sam LaPorta missed the Lions' first two practices this week.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are every bit as talented as the Lions, but they have a chance to have every starter available for this matchup. They are about as healthy as a team can reasonably be at this point in the season.

The Eagles have beaten plenty of other very good teams this season, like the Rams, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Packers, even if it was rarely pretty. They'll win another weird one on Sunday night.

Cowboys (-3.5) at Raiders: Boom, I love this "bad game" matchup for my Monday night. The Cowboys are bad, but Geno Smith and the Raiders are worse.

BYE: Colts, Saints.

Survivor pick ☠️

The Jets have actually won two straight games, albeit against the Bengals and Browns, but they have played better of late. Still, if you haven't yet used the Patri*ts in your survivor pool, as noted above they're the only team favored by double digits this week, which makes them a pretty easy pick.

If you already used the Patriots and are deciding between the Texans and Packers, I like the Texans a lot more than I like the Packers, who have lost to two bad teams this year (the Browns and Panthers). The Texans have at least beaten the bad teams on their schedule, and this week they play the Titans, who they beat 26-0 earlier this season.

Week 1: Eagles ✅
Week 2: Ravens ✅
Week 3: Bills ✅
Week 4: Broncos ✅
Week 5: Lions ✅
Week 6: Packers ✅
Week 7: Chiefs ✅
Week 8: Colts ✅
Week 9: Rams ✅
Week 10: Seahawks ✅
Week 11: Patriots

• Picks against the spread: Jets (+13), Dolphins (-2.5), Buccaneers (+6), Texans (-6.5), Cardinals (+3), Chiefs (-3.5).

• Eagles picks: 7-2

• 2025 season, straight up: 93-55-1 (0.628)
• 2025 season, ATS: 24-31 (0.436) 😕
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)