For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 11 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Commanders at Eagles (-3.5): The Eagles have faced some quarterbacks this season who have some mobility, like Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, and Joe Burrow, but none of those guys have anything close to the dynamic athleticism possessed by rookie phenom Jayden Daniels. The Commanders can put points on the scoreboard, and Daniels will pose a unique challenge for the Eagles' defense, both with his arm and his legs.
However, the Commanders are an uneven team. They're ranked 25th in defensive DVOA (20th pass, 24th run), and have glaring issues at cornerback, which they rightfully acknowledged by acquiring Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. It doesn't look like Lattimore (hamstring) will be quite ready to make his Commanders debut, as he was unable to practice on Tuesday. We'll see.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have been the more complete team, especially of late. During their five-game winning streak, they are allowing just 200.8 yards per game and 13 points per game. Offensively, they're averaging 380.6 yards per game and 29.4 points per game.
Both teams can score. They've proven that. But I trust the Eagles' defense to get more stops.
Packers (-5) at Bears: The Bears started 4-2, but they have now dropped three straight games, including an embarrassing 19-3 loss to the Patriots last Sunday. They then fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Now they have to face a well-rested Packers team coming off their bye that they haven't beaten since 2018.
Jaguars at Lions (-14): Trevor Lawrence is out, hence the 14-point spread. The Jags' backup is Mac Jones, who was 14 of 22 for 111 yards (5.0 YPA), 0 TDs, and 2 INTs against the Vikings last week. The Lions might be the best team in the NFL at the moment, but a 14-point spread feels a little high, right? Six of the Jags' eight losses have been by one score. I'm tempted to take the points, but I'm just going to stay away.
Vikings (-6) at Titans: In six of their seven losses, the Titans have lost by at least 7 points, but it's hard to trust the Vikings to put points on the board lately, as Sam Darnold has not played nearly as well as he played the first month or so of the season.
Ravens (-3) at Steelers: The Steelers have owned this rivalry recently, winning seven of the last eight. The Ravens haven't scored 20 or more points against the Steelers in a game since 2020. The Steelers haven't always had awesome teams during that span, but they always seem to have a good plan for Lamar Jackson.
Raiders at Dolphins (-7): For as bad as the Dolphins have been this season, they are only 1.5 games out of the 7 seed, and they have had back-to-back games where they look like they might be frisky down the stretch. They lost by three to the Bills Week 9, and they had a convincing win on the road over a decent Rams team Week 10. Three of their next four games are at home against the Raiders, Patriots, and Jets. They have a chance to make a run.
Colts at Jets (-4): For some reason Vegas still sees the Jets as a top half of the league team, and the point spreads reflect that. I don't love riding with Anthony Richardson, who will be starting once again for the Colts, but I do know the Jets are frauds and I'll take my chances with four points tacked on.
On a side note, it's very funny how the following clip shows how easily Aaron Rodgers will spread highly unlikely to be true information:
if you’ve ever wondered how easy it is to spread fake information
i made this stat up while laying in bed at halftime of the game😭 https://t.co/4m2NnSh6qh pic.twitter.com/mWNuFF9ZLI— Civ (@MisterCiv) November 12, 2024
Idiot.
Rams (-4.5) at Patriots: I only got to watch one Eagles-Patriots joint practice this summer so I don't want to come off sounding super informed about the Patriots' training camp on such a small sample size, but it seemed pretty clear me that Drake Maye was always way better than Jacoby Brissett, and I kind of like what he has shown so far. A 4.5-point spread looks tasty for the Rams on the surface, and certainly I'm picking them to win, but I'd be wary of this matchup, which also happens to be a West Coast team traveling across the country for a 1 p.m. start.
Browns at Saints (-1): Who cares?
Seahawks at 49ers (-6.5): The last six games in this series:
- 49ers by 12
- 49ers by 18
- 49ers by 12
- 49ers by 18
- 49ers by 8
- 49ers by 20
So, sure, I'll lay 6.5 points on the Niners, who are starting to play better.
Falcons at Broncos (-2.5): This is maybe a little reductive, but I like the Broncos' defense more than any other unit for either team in this matchup.
Chiefs at Bills (-2.5): This is the game of the week, by far. It's too bad it's not a primetime game instead of, uhhhh, Bengals-Chargers?
The Bills are the better team, in my opinion, and they have proven that they can beat the Chiefs during the regular season. But we all know what's going to happen in the playoffs.
Bengals at Chargers (-1.5): The Chargers have quietly won each of their last three games by double digit points, but Joe Burrow is on a little bit of a heater lately, having thrown for 9 TD passes in his last two games.
Texans (-7.5) at Cowboys: I don't really even like the Texans, or how C.J. Stroud is playing at the moment, but I'll gladly lay 7.5 points on the road against a Cowboys team that is going to get absolutely rolled the rest of the season.
Bye week: Giants, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers.
• Picks against the spread: Packers (-5), Steelers (+3), Colts (+4), 49ers (-6.5), Bengals (+1.5), Texans (-7.5).
• 2024 season, straight up: 106-46 (0.697)
• 2024 season, ATS: 37-25-2 (0.594)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 427-361-21 (0.541)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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