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Sixers year-in-review: Will Joel Embiid ever find his MVP form again?

by myphillyconnection
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With the 2024-25 Sixers season officially in the rearview mirror, the time has come to evaluate the few highs and many lows of a disastrous campaign in which the team only managed 24 wins. We will do so in "Sixers year-in-review," a series assessing each individual Sixers player's performance this year based on numbers, film and quotes, while also looking ahead to the future.

Only one player could lead us off: Joel Embiid, whose season was derailed by injuries. Embiid only played in 19 games before being shut down for the season, and when he did play, the former NBA MVP looked nothing like his best self on the court.

What we learned in 2024-25

Embiid's latest knee injury might have been the straw that broke the camel's back.

From the start of a five-day training camp in the Bahamas at the start of October to his eventual shutdown at the end of February, Embiid was never healthy during 2024-25. Even when he played, Embiid frequently looked like a shell of himself, both in terms of pure athletic capabilities and the trust he had in his knee to perform the basic movements that he has always relied on.

Embiid underwent arthroscopic knee surgery a week ago; the Sixers called it a success and President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey said in his own exit interview that the team expects Embiid to be at 100 percent next season. Morey was unable to provide an explanation for why this specific procedure was chosen for Embiid, and it is fair to wonder how one that is known to not be particularly invasive is supposed to fix issues of this magnitude. If all it took for Embiid to be back at 100 percent was a surgery that comes with a six-week re-evaluation timeline, why did it not take place until the middle of April?

Number to know

Joel Embiid's average shot distance in 2024-25: 13.5 feet (career-high).

There are dozens of statistics that could have been used to illustrate Embiid's declining production in his small sample size of games in 2024-25. Perhaps none does a better job than this: despite being listed as a seven-footer who weighs 280 pounds, Embiid was routinely settling for jumpers in situations where he would typically be able to bully his way to the basket. Embiid was able to get by on passable efficiency because of his terrific touch in the mid-range and ability to draw fouls, but his true shooting percentage this season was worse than any year of his career other than 2017-18, his first playing on a full-time basis.

Embiid's average shot distance was more than a foot higher than any other season in his career, a somewhat ominous sign in regards to his ability to force his way into the restricted area whenever he wants:

Season Embiid average shot distance (ft.)
2016-17 11.2
2017-18 11.1
2018-19 11.0
2019-20 12.4
2020-21 11.8
2021-22 11.9
2022-23 11.2
2023-24 12.3
2024-25 13.5

In order for Embiid to return to dominance, he needs to be able to trust his knee without thinking. Otherwise, his shot profile will get worse and worse each year.

MORE: Daryl Morey takes blame for disastrous season, provides Embiid update

Important film

Despite all of his newfound shortcomings (and the ones that already existed), Embiid's mere presence has always made things easier for the players around him. Tyrese Maxey's emergence into a star guard was accelerated tremendously by his two-man game with Embiid; Maxey's own offensive decline this season demonstrated how reliant he has been on Embiid's gravity. Even when Embiid was playing at half-speed and opposing teams could tell how limited he was, there were always 10 eyes focused on Embiid when he had the ball. An example:

With five pairs of eyes glued to Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, Kelly Oubre Jr. finds an opportunity to cut to the basket. Embiid finds him for an easy basket: pic.twitter.com/BdvzIe5czV

— Adam Aaronson's clips (@SixersAdamClips) January 3, 2025

That point is made to arrive here: surely, the Sixers' hopes of winning a championship hinge on Embiid's ability to return to what Morey called an "MVP-level" of play. But even if Embiid is never again the player he was in 2022-23 or in following season until his torn meniscus, he remains at the top of every scouting report and generates so much attention that his teammates are going to reap the benefits. But none of that matters if he is in street clothes.

Salient soundbite

Maxey on Embiid in his exit interview on Sunday:

"It really did suck, man. At the end of the day, Jo is somebody who really wants to be out there. To see him suffer, to see him go out there and actually try and just couldn't be himself, you could tell… I've seen him do so many spectacular things and I gave him the ball a couple times in moments where I think that he would do something and I guess he just couldn't. He was limited. So hopefully that surgery went well and all that and he gets back to the Joel Embiid that we know and love. And honestly, I hope [for that] for him because it'll make him feel a lot better. And through it all, all in all, he has been great this year, though, as far as being a teammate, being somebody who comes and just supports us."

Question heading into the future

Will Embiid ever be able to play again on a consistent basis at any level?

The Sixers hope — and are expressing confidence publicly that — Embiid will return next year and be, as Maxey said, the player many know and love. Of course, the notion that it is obvious Embiid is going to be playing at a world-class level immediately upon returning is silly — he was a total shell of himself in 2024-25, has another recovery and rehabilitation process ahead of him and could very well look like the same player again next season.

At this point, the question is not what level of performance Embiid will be capable of submitting when he returns to playing consistently, but whether or not he will ever be capable of playing consistently again. If he never reaches that point again, the Sixers are in for a long four years…

Contract information

Embiid signed a three-year, $193 million contract extension prior to the start the season, but it does not kick in until after next season ends. He has four years and approximately $248 million left on his deal now.

• 2025-26: $55.2 million

• 2026-27: $59.5 million

• 2027-28: $64.3 million

• 2028-29: $69.0 million (player option)

MORE: Biggest takeaways from Sixers' exit interviews

Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam

Follow PhillyVoice on Twitter: @thephillyvoice

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