Welcome to Sixers tank watch 7.0, which will be the very last installment of this weekly series. In seven days from now the Sixers will have ended their miserable 2024-25 campaign and have some certainty about their chances of successfully safeguarding the top-six protected first-round pick that has become their possible saving grace.
Because there are fewer possibilities with three games remaining on the schedule, there is far less to break down at this juncture. But let's give this one more go-around:
Lottery standings entering tonight
The state of the NBA's reverse standings entering the final five days of the regular season, with three games left on everyone's slate:
The Sixers have a floor of tying for the No. 5 slot — though their next loss will clinch sole possession of that spot and likely lock the Brooklyn Nets into No. 6 — and after the New Orleans Pelicans lost in Brooklyn on Tuesday night, the idea of the Sixers leapfrogging the Pelicans and overtaking the No. 4 slot seems nearly impossible.
So, it will almost certainly be the No. 5 spot for the Sixers. One last look at the table that has been our friend for many months:
| Lottery position | Chance of keeping pick |
| 1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 93.0% |
| 4 | 81.1% |
| 5 | 64.0% |
| 6 | 45.8% |
| 7 | 31.9% |
| 8 | 26.3% |
| 9 | 20.2% |
| 10 | 13.9% |
| 11 | 9.4% |
| 12 | 7.1% |
| 13 | 4.7% |
| 14 | 2.4% |
Unless the Sixers lose out and New Orleans wins out, the best case scenario for the Sixers is that the Pelicans win two more games than them in their final three contests and end up tied for fourth. This would cause a random drawing, which would allow the Sixers to near a 4-in-5 chance of keeping their pick:
| Lottery position | Chance of keeping pick |
| 4 | 81.1% |
| T4, win random drawing | 79.6% |
| T4, lose random drawing | 65.3% |
| 5 | 64.0% |
Can the Sixers force a random drawing and give themselves a chance of bolstering their security?
MORE: Should the Sixers use first-round pick to dump Paul George's contract?
The days ahead
The remaining slates for the Sixers and Pelicans:
Sixers: Wednesday @ Washington Wizards (17-62), Friday vs. Atlanta Hawks (37-42), Sunday vs. Chicago Bulls (36-43)
Pelicans: Thursday @ Milwaukee Bucks (45-34), Friday vs. Miami Heat (36-43), Sunday vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (65-14)
The only scenarios in which the Sixers can even tie the Pelicans are as follows:
• Sixers go 0-3, Pelicans go 2-1
• Sixers go 1-2, Pelicans go 3-0
On the Sixers' side, losing should not be an issue. Wednesday's game against the Wizards will be an epic tanking clash, but the Sixers did lose to Washington at home exactly two weeks ago and could be without Quentin Grimes. But they will also need to see the Pelicans win more than once, and that is a major uphill battle.
First of all, New Orleans is certainly aware of these circumstances and will take steps to ensure they do not jeopardize their own lottery positioning. But even if they failed to recognize the importance of avoiding multiple victories, they do not appear to even be a team capable of notching two victories in their three remaining games.
Like Atlanta and Chicago on the Sixers' schedule, the Heat figure to enter their game against New Orleans with some level of intensity as all three teams fight for ideal seeding in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament. Milwaukee is trying to fend off the Detroit Pistons and secure the No. 5 seed, while Oklahoma City feels destined to obliterate the Pelicans no matter which players suit up.
This is all to say: you can expect a story here in the coming days about the Sixers finally being locked into the No. 5 slot of the NBA Draft Lottery standings, which would give them a 64.0 percent chance of keeping their first-rounder — and a 10.5 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick.
MORE: What would Sixers' rotation look like with Cooper Flagg?
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