Welcome to Sixers tank watch 6.0, and the penultimate edition of this series tracking the team's chances of successfully holding onto its top-six protected first-round pick may be the most crucial yet. There have been some major developments on the tanking front in the last seven days — as hypothesized in Sixers tank watch 5.0 — they have opened up some unforeseen opportunities for the team over its last six games of the season. We have a lot to get to this week, so let's not waste anymore time:
As one team exits the discussion, a new one enters
We can now say goodbye to the Toronto Raptors, who the Sixers officially extinguished in the race for the No. 5 slot in the lottery standings last week. In every single edition of this series, the Raptors' incredibly easy remaining schedule has been highlighted. That team was not going to be able to hang with the Sixers and Brooklyn Nets in a two-month tank race, and the Raptors now appear locked into the No. 7 slot.
Not only have the Sixers pulled away from the Raptors and taken a two-game "lead" over Brooklyn, but they have lost at such a high clip that suddenly the No. 4 lottery slot — currently occupied by the New Orleans Pelicans — could be attainable. It will be an uphill battle for the Sixers to tie or pass New Orleans, but the Pelicans are now within striking distance with a small handful of games left in the season.
Keep this in mind: the Pelicans see what is going on and will do whatever they can to keep the Sixers in their rearview mirror. In fact, they have already shut down Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum for the remainder of the season. They join Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones. This is the zombie version of the Pelicans; winning two or three of their last seven games to put the Sixers in range of overtaking them feels difficult to fathom. But crazier things have happened, so the Pelicans have officially been introduced to the mix here.
Lottery standings entering tonight
Here is how the lottery standings look entering Wednesday, with 11 days left in the 2024-25 NBA regular season:
And, if they do not finish the season tied with any of their fellow tanking teams, the Sixers' chances of keeping their top-six protected pick depending on each possible lottery slot:
| Lottery position | Chance of keeping pick |
| 1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 93.0% |
| 4 | 81.1% |
| 5 | 64.0% |
| 6 | 45.8% |
| 7 | 31.9% |
| 8 | 26.3% |
| 9 | 20.2% |
| 10 | 13.9% |
| 11 | 9.4% |
| 12 | 7.1% |
| 13 | 4.7% |
| 14 | 2.4% |
But, as we discussed here last week, ties do happen, and they jumble these odds a bit. There is no tie-breaker like season series to determine which team gets a higher spot; a process ensues calls a "random drawing" which gives one team a decided advantage over the other because it can fall one fewer spot. The Sixers overtaking New Orleans with such little time left in the season feels unlikely, but could they tie them and force a random drawing? It is not inconceivable.
If the Sixers tied the Pelicans at the end of the season and forced a random drawing, skyrocketing into the vicinity of having an 80 percent chance to keep their pick would become a 50/50 proposition. Here is the Sixers' distribution of odds if they finish the season tied with New Orleans and win the random drawing:
| Draft Pick | Percentage chance |
| 1 | 11.5% |
| 2 | 11.4% |
| 3 | 11.2% |
| 4 | 11.0% |
| 5 | 7.4% |
| 6 | 27.1% |
| 7 | 18.0% |
| 8 | 2.4% |
And now, what the Sixers' odds are of landing each pick in their range if they tie New Orleans but lose the random drawing:
| Draft Pick | Percentage chance |
| 1 | 11.5% |
| 2 | 11.4% |
| 3 | 11.2% |
| 4 | 11.0% |
| 5 | 2.0% |
| 6 | 18.2% |
| 7 | 25.5% |
| 8 | 8.6% |
| 9 | 0.6% |
Now, we land here: the Sixers' chances of keeping their pick based on all seven conceivable scenarios between landing in No. 4 alone and landing in No. 6 alone. There are many possibilities; any random drawing would become appointment television.
| Lottery position | Chance of keeping pick |
| 4 | 81.1% |
| T4, win random drawing | 79.6% |
| T4, lose random drawing | 65.3% |
| 5 | 64.0% |
| T5, win random drawing | 62.2% |
| T5, lose random drawing | 47.7% |
| 6 | 45.8% |
Even with it being hard-pressed to imagine the Sixers winning three of their last six games and the Nets losing out in order to overtake them as the outright No. 5 seed, we will leave the idea of the Sixers falling to No. 6 vaguely on the table this week.
MORE: Predicting Sixers' team and player option choices
The week ahead
The slates in the next seven days for the Sixers, Pelicans and Nets — including a matchup between New Orleans and Brooklyn on Tuesday that someone will have to win whether they like it or not:
Sixers: Thursday vs. Milwaukee Bucks (40-34), Saturday vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (44-32), Monday @ Miami Heat (34-41)
The Sixers' best chance of winning a game this week comes in Miami on Monday; the Heat had looked inept since the Jimmy Butler trade before a recent surge which included a stress-free victory in Philadelphia last weekend. The Timberwolves are playing stellar basketball right now and just won an absolutely unbelievable double-overtime thriller over the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night despite a 61-point triple-double from Nikola Jokić. Milwaukee is trying to find itself before the playoffs, and Damian Lillard is sidelined indefinitely but Giannis Antetokounmpo is good enough to single-handedly beat this version of the Sixers on any night.
Pelicans: Wednesday @ Los Angeles Clippers (43-32), Friday @ Los Angeles Lakers (46-29), Sunday vs. Milwaukee Bucks (40-34), Tuesday @ Brooklyn Nets (25-51)
The Bucks are theoretically vulnerable right now, but probably not vulnerable enough to be threatened by the aforementioned Zombie Pelicans who are cognizant of their incentive to lose. The Pelicans will also be heavy underdogs in both of their games in Los Angeles. And then there is that game on Tuesday…
Nets: Thursday vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (44-32), Sunday vs. Toronto Raptors (28-47), Tuesday vs. New Orleans Pelicans (21-54)
On its face, Pelicans-Nets in Brooklyn seems like a real toss-up, as neither team has much available talent and both organizations want to lose. But with every passing day, it looks more and more like Brooklyn is going to get locked into No. 6 in front of Toronto. Suddenly, New Orleans is the one with much more to play for. The Pelicans could end up being far more aggressive in their tanking efforts than the Nets from here on out as they try to ensure the Sixers do not pull off a miraculous comeback.
MORE: Should Sixers use first-round pick to dump Paul George's contract?
Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam
Follow PhillyVoice on Twitter: @thephillyvoice
