The 2024-25 NBA regular season officially tips off with a pair of games on Tuesday night, as the Boston Celtics raise their 18th championship banner and then battle the new-look New York Knicks before the Minnesota Timberwolves look to hand Los Angeles Lakers head coach JJ Redick a loss in his coaching debut.
20 teams — including the Sixers — will kick off their seasons the following day, with the remaining teams beginning their 82-game journeys on Thursday.
Perhaps the best part of anticipating a new season is getting to make predictions. We'll have a host of Sixers- and NBA-centric ones here over the next handful of days, starting today with five win total over/under bets that I have confidence in. The win totals displayed are courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook, as listed on Saturday morning:
Philadelphia 76ers: under 50.5 wins
It's only right that I take a stab at the Sixers' over/under, and 51 wins is just a lot for a team that is not going to be primarily focused on winning regular season games. Joel Embiid is expected to be the subject of an extreme, disciplined load management regimen which the Sixers hope will enable him to enter the playoffs healthy and prepared to spend an additional two months on the floor. Paul George signing with the team dramatically raises its ceiling, but he will also have his workload carefully monitored throughout the season: George is 34 years old with an extensive injury history.
The Sixers will not be the first team to use the regular season for gathering information and experimenting first and foremost, with their win total not being its primary motivation. But the extent to which they appear willing to sacrifice regular season wins — in conjunction with other Eastern Conference teams emerging from the middle of the pack into contention for 50-plus wins themselves — makes me willing to guess the Sixers will not win more than 50 games.
In particular, the Orlando Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers stand out as teams with strong cases to take the next step in their progression. Each team has star power, and they are all on the younger side of things. My belief that each of those teams has a major leap in their range of realistic outcomes also informs this next pick.
MORE: Don't be concerned about Embiid… yet
Milwaukee Bucks: under 50.5 wins
Even if two of Orlando, Cleveland or Indiana have strong seasons, in addition to the Celtics being a virtual lock for at least 55 wins and the Knicks figuring to have the next-highest floor of any team in the conference, someone else needs to see their bottom line suffer as a result.
I landed on the Bucks, who will have the requisite talent to win any seven-game series thanks to superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, the battle-tested Khris Middleton and one of the game's best role players in Brook Lopez. My strongest concerns about Milwaukee are related to the regular season, though they could emerge in the postseason as well.
Antetokounmpo has avoided catastrophic injuries in years past, but is typically a safe bet to miss some time. Lillard has only averaged 53.3 games played over the last three seasons. Middleton has only appeared in 88 games over the last two years and is already dealing with injury issues that have derailed his preseason.
Additionally, this team's depth is wholly unimpressive. Their signing of Gary Trent Jr. on a veteran's minimum was a coup, as he should replace Malik Beasley in their starting lineup. Beyond that, the extent to which they will rely on players like Delon Wright and Taurean Prince is jarring. The Bucks have a large host of young and unproven wings; one of those players stepping into a rotation role would be a boon for head coach Doc Rivers.
Milwaukee's combination of health and depth concerns, plus a more competitive top of the Eastern Conference, gives me enough pause to expect the Bucks will win no more than 50 games (I would not be surprised if they landed closer to 45).
MORE: Can Doc Rivers lead the Bucks to a title?
Phoenix Suns: over 47.5 wins
Phoenix won 49 games last year before a disappointing first-round sweep at the hands of Minnesota. They replaced head coach Frank Vogel with Mike Budenholzer, Milwaukee's former head coach with a long track record of regular season success (and a championship). Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of last year's underwhelming Suns season was their insufficient three-point volume, but Budenholzer's signature trait — the one that transformed those Bucks teams into championship contenders — is encouraging high-volume three-point shooting.
the Suns went 26-9 last season when they took threes at league average rate or higher
now they're coached by Mike Budenholzer whose never had a team finish lower than 15th in three-point rate
more on that in this week's F5: https://t.co/U9V5rJFdAI pic.twitter.com/GDcfOzMEK0— Owen Phillips (@owenlhjphillips) October 18, 2024
The Suns are once again over the NBA's second apron, meaning they have little ability to upgrade their roster midseason. But they did add a quality point guard in Tyus Jones on a minimum deal, signed Monte Morris to back him up and will benefit from having a full season of Royce O'Neale.
I am certainly not ready to call the Suns championship contenders, but I think this line is simply too low.
Chicago Bulls: under 28.5 wins
The Bulls lost DeMar DeRozan — effectively for nothing — over the summer. Say what you want about DeRozan, but he is one of the league's foremost floor-raisers in the regular season. They traded Alex Caruso, one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA with strong spot-up three-point shooting and secondary ball-handling, for Josh Giddey, one of the least efficient guards in the NBA who is a disastrous defensive player.
Here's 2:11 minutes of the Rockets completely ignoring josh Giddey on defense and attacking him mercilessly on offense: pic.twitter.com/YPZMxo7Vxl
— Itamar (@Itamar_17_10) December 7, 2023
The only cause for true optimism on this roster is Coby White, who would have been last year's NBA Most Improved Player if not for Tyrese Maxey's fourth-year leap. Hopefully, White will not lose opportunities to Giddey and other inferior players.
In prior seasons, the Bulls have foolishly chased Play-In Tournament appearances rather than prioritizing long-term asset collection and player development. But in 2024-25, they will have no choice but to stick closer to the bottom of the standings: as a result of the trade that landed them DeRozan originally, the Bulls will owe their 2025 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs if it does not land within the first 10 selections. Making sure Chicago holds onto that pick should be the team's top goal for the season.
Washington Wizards: under 20.5 wins
Perhaps the under on Washington is the low-hanging fruit, but I cannot fathom this team beating another NBA team 21 times. Their current roster is devoid of talent in most areas, and their only established positive contributors — Kyle Kuzma and Malcolm Brogdon, for example — will almost certainly be trade bait during the winter.
The Wizards are finally embracing a rebuild, and that is for the best. They were stuck in the middle for years, a directionless organization without much to get excited for. Now, Wizards fans can at least get excited about youngsters like Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr, while also watching a whole lot of Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey in preparation for the 2025 NBA Draft.
One Wizards player who should be on the radar if he does not sign a contract extension before Monday: wing Corey Kispert, an excellent shooter who has seen noteworthy improvement in other areas of his game. Kispert, 25, will be a restricted free agent next summer if he does not agree to a new deal in the next few days. Kispert is good enough to help a team now and young enough to do it for quite a few years.
MORE: Checking in on former Sixers
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