Phillies free agency: Will they target a legitimate starting pitcher this winter?

The Phillies already know the first four pitchers they'll send to the mound when the 2025 regular season starts.

Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez will be the starting four. But the Phillies had a fifth-starter problem. Figuring out what to do in that spot will be a key offseason decision for the team.

Once Spencer Turnbull lost his starting job to Taijuan Walker last spring — and then later got hurt for the rest of the season — things went south in a big way:

The Phillies fifth starters — including Turnbull — had a 6.83 ERA over 171.2 innings pitched. And the team somehow still ended up winning 95 games.

The hopes for the future of the rotation lie with top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, who has recovered from Tommy John surgery and will be pitching in spring training. The Phillies aren't going to roll the dice with the same selection of fifth starters. With a wide variety of free agents available — or potentially available — Dave Dombrowski and the front office have a lot of arms to kick the tires on.

Will they spend some real money and bring in a solid top of the rotation hurler? Or will they just try and add a little depth to bide time for a potential Painter breakthrough? Here's a look at 30 potential acquisitions the team could be sniffing this winter:

The aging superstars (3): Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw

All three of these guys are over over the hill in baseball terms, but all have a little left in the tank. Would a one-year deal with an over the hill starter make sense for a team chasing a championship?

The stars with options (10): Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell, Robbie Ray, Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Freddy Peralta, Nick Martinez, Merrill Kelly

Some of these guys will be available but not all of them. With team options, player options and mutual options, it's likely that aces like Cole and Ray won't be allowed to, or choose to walk. But it is possible that Snell, for example, opts out of his deal with the Giants in seeking a longer-term pact.

The real question this offseason when it comes to building depth in the rotation is whether the Phillies will be willing to really spend with four All-Stars already in the rotation. Would they commit to more than one year?

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The definitely available upgrades (11): Max Fried, Patrick Corbin, Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, José Quintana, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Charlie Morton

Adding Max Fried would give the Phillies hands down the best rotation in baseball and Burnes will probably be the most sought after truly available ace. But both will command contracts in the nine figures and the Phillies have quite a few of those already on the books. Still, the bitter taste of an early exit could influence them to spend instead of wing it and hope.

One-year prove it guys: (4) Walker Buehler, Yusei Kikuchi, Matthew Boyd, Kyle Hendricks

There are far more than these five pitchers available in this bucket, but this is just a sampling. It's the most realistic approach for the Phillies to take in free agency, bringing in guys with a track record but fresh off a down season in 2024. Allowing a veteran to come in and earn a starting role as a bridge to a pitching prospect like Painter makes the most sense.

The Japanese studs (2): Rōki Sasaki, Tomoyuki Sugano

There's another international superstar who might be available and it could be a franchise-altering acquisition, if the Phillies get in the mix for the 22-year-old Sasaki. Here's some more info on the young hurler from The Athletic's Jim Bowen:

It is unclear if Roki Sasaki’s team in Japan, the Chiba Lotte Marines, will allow him to leave for MLB this offseason, but with the Marines out of the NPB playoffs, we should know soon. If he is coming, he will be the most coveted international free agent as the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Diamondbacks all committed significant resources to scout him this month, including sending top executives to see him pitch.

…

However, he dominated down the stretch this season, averaging 100.5 mph with his fastball and reaching 103 mph. Since Sasaki is under 25, he would be subject to international bonus pool restrictions; if he’s posted after this season, he’d only be allowed to sign a minor-league contract, which is what Ohtani did with the Angels in 2017. [The Athletic]

Bowen did not mention Philadelphia among the teams he expects will be interested. Sugano is older, 35, and won the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young award twice. With a 1.67 ERA in 24 starts, the veteran could get some contract offers from American teams as well.

The Phillies might try and upgrade the outfield, or move on from an infielder, or shake up the bench. Or they could add another megastar. But the solidifying of a fully fleshed out rotation is a compelling storyline to keep an eye on.

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