Week 12 of the NFL season is in the books, and there are four teams in the NFC that have clearly separated from the rest of the pack. There are no new obituaries this week, so let's just get right to the Hierarchy.
Graveyard
Hierarchy
11) 49ers (5-6): I watched a documentary about bears one time, and part of the focus was on the once-dominant alpha bear who was a d**k to all the other bears. Well, the alpha bear got old, the tables turned as the younger bears became stronger, and the not-so-alpha bear died on his own in the cold.The 49ers are that bear.Last week: 7
10) Rams (5-6): The Rams have some good, young talent, but they did not look at all like they can compete with the best teams in the NFL in their loss to the Eagles on Sunday. The Eagles were able to expose their light defensive front in the run game, as well as their shaky offensive line in pass protection.
The Rams have good players at their skill positions, and a bunch of young pass rushers who can get after the quarterback, but they can be pushed around in the trenches on both sides of the ball. That does not make for a title contender.
Last week: 10
9) Falcons (6-5): The Falcons were on their bye Week 12, and watched as the Bucs narrowed their lead in the NFC South to one game. (Technically it's more like two games, since the Falcons already swept the Bucs.)
Still, the Falcons seemed like they were going to run away with the division a few weeks ago after the Bucs lost Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but, nope. It's a race again.
Also, I talk about the Falcons' lack of a pass rush quite a bit in the Hierarchy, and I'm going to do that again.
They have 10 sacks this season in 11 games, which puts them on pace for 15 sacks. Here are the worst pass rush seasons in NFL history since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978 (excluding strike-shortened seasons):
| Team | Sacks | Record |
| 2008 Chiefs | 10 | 2-14 |
| 2018 Raiders | 13 | 4-12 |
| 1981 Colts | 13 | 2-14 |
| 2009 Jaguars | 14 | 7-9 |
| 2020 Bengals | 17 | 4-11-1 |
| 2008 Browns | 17 | 4-12 |
| 1995 Jaguars | 17 | 4-12 |
| 1991 Rams | 17 | 3-13 |
The combined records of those teams: 30-97-1 (0.238).
It's remarkable that the Falcons have a winning record, though I suppose playing in an atrocious division helps.
Last week: 8
8) Commanders (7-5): I'm sure you all know what happened in the Commanders-Cowboys game, but for posterity's sake, we'll just note that they had something of a miracle 86-yard TD pass from Jayden Daniels to Terry McLaurin when they were down a touchdown late to the Cowboys.
COMMANDERS 86-YARD TOUCHDOWN WOW
📺: #DALvsWAS on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/apaNEKNCkh— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024
And then… 😱😱😱!
NO GOOD.
📺: #DALvsWAS on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/FDg7wGy8KF— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024
As many pointed out, that was reminiscent of the missed PAT by John Carney after the Saints' incredible desperation lateral play in 2003:
That first lateral by Donte Stallworth to Michael Lewis was forward, by the way, but whatever.
Anyway, the Cowboys looked like arguably the worst team in the NFL heading into this matchup, and the Commanders still lost to them at home despite getting all kinds of breaks. They were projected to win the NFC East like three weeks ago, but after a three-game losing streak, their chances of winning the division are now at 4 percent, per Inpredictable, and that might be generous.
Last week: 6
7) Cardinals (6-5): Kyler Murray threw one of the worst passes of the season:
Lol, what was that, a hook shot? The Seahawks scored more points on that play than the Cardinals scored all day.
Just when you think Murray is turning the corner, he does something like that.
Last week: 5
6) Seahawks (6-5): Even after the Seahawks' win over the Cardinals, the Cardinals have a narrow edge to win the NFC West. Odds, via Inpredictable:
• Cardinals: 42%
• Seahawks: 35%
• Rams: 14%
• 49ers: 9%
Geno Smith and Kyler Murray have been in the NFL a combined 17 seasons. They have zero playoff wins.
Last week: 11
5) Buccaneers (5-6): Why are the Bucs fifth in the Hierarchy with a 5-6 record? Well, if we were to look at the NFC Hierarchy in terms of tiers, I'd group them like so:
I think the Bucs are the best team among the NFC teams that don't really matter.
Last week: 9
4) Packers (8-3): Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs could have all been franchise tagged by their former teams, and but they all opted to let them hit the free agent market. Oops! Those three guys are the top three leading rushers in the NFL this season:
- Saquon Barkley, PHI: 1392
- Derrick Henry, BLT: 1325
- Josh Jacobs, GB: 944
Joe Schoen has become the butt of jokes for the season that Barkley has had, but letting S Xavier McKinney walk was arguably an even worse decision, given his age and potential career trajectory for a Giants team that was still building.
Xavier McKinney with his 7th pick of the year for the @Packers!
📺: #SFvsGB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/lDcQ14FS7U— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024
That 👆 was McKinney's league-leading 7th INT of the season.
Last week: 4
3) Vikings (9-2): The Vikings have a four-game winning streak, the last three of which were on the road. Granted those road opponents were the Jaguars, Titans, and Bears, three teams that are already out of the playoff hunt in mid-November, but that's still hard to do nevertheless.
Last week: 3
2) Eagles (9-2): NFL yardage differentials:
| Team | Yards | Yards allowed | Differential |
| Eagles | 4280 | 3021 | +1259 |
| 49ers | 4230 | 3347 | +883 |
| Ravens | 5120 | 4267 | +853 |
| Lions | 4337 | 3545 | +792 |
| Packers | 4207 | 3531 | +676 |
| Chiefs | 3770 | 3309 | +461 |
| Commanders | 4446 | 4015 | +431 |
| Texans | 4032 | 3637 | +395 |
| Vikings | 3862 | 3490 | +372 |
| Titans | 3323 | 3040 | +283 |
| Steelers | 3608 | 3357 | +251 |
| Dolphins | 3572 | 3347 | +225 |
| Broncos | 3762 | 3552 | +210 |
| Bills | 3798 | 3620 | +178 |
| Falcons | 3977 | 3928 | +49 |
| Cardinals | 3762 | 3745 | +17 |
| Seahawks | 3809 | 3793 | +16 |
| Chargers | 3549 | 3560 | -11 |
| Bengals | 3897 | 3910 | -13 |
| Buccaneers | 4065 | 4138 | -73 |
| Jets | 3238 | 3355 | -117 |
| Rams | 3650 | 3987 | -337 |
| Raiders | 3219 | 3603 | -384 |
| Giants | 3342 | 3763 | -421 |
| Bears | 3307 | 3730 | -423 |
| Saints | 3821 | 4299 | -478 |
| Cowboys | 3555 | 4069 | -514 |
| Browns | 3217 | 3795 | -578 |
| Colts | 3796 | 4510 | -714 |
| Patriots | 3360 | 4179 | -819 |
| Panthers | 3141 | 4260 | -1119 |
| Jaguars | 3199 | 4551 | -1352 |
Last week: 2
1) Lions (10-1): The Lions' odds of winning each of their six remaining games, via ESPN Analytics:
• Week 13: Bears: 76.2%
• Week 14: Packers: 62.6%
• Week 15: Bills: 60.9%
• Week 16: At Bears: 71.1%
• Week 17: At 49ers: 61.9%
• Week 18: Vikings: 67.1%
Last week: 1
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