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NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Week 11 edition

by myphillyconnection
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Week 10 of the NFL season is in the books, and a bunch of teams around the NFC are beginning to fall out of contention for the playoffs. We have one new — and overdue — obituary this week, the New York Giants.

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Obituary: Giants (2-8)

The Giants reached a new low on Sunday when they lost to the putrid Panthers in Germany. They now have sole possession of the worst record in the NFC, and if the season ended today they'd have the No. 2 pick in the draft.

A high pick would be nothing new for the Giants, since their original pick (before any trades) have been in the top six in five of the last seven drafts:

• 2024: 6
• 2023: 25
• 2022: 5
• 2021: 11
• 2020: 4
• 2019: 6
• 2018: 2

And yet somehow, despite all of those chances to add elite talent, they have the second-worst record in the NFL since 2017. Only the Jets are worse, and by a half game:

Since 2017 Record Winning %
Jets 39-86 0.312
Giants 39-85-1 0.316
Broncos 48-77 0.384
Cardinals 45-79-1 0.396
Commanders 50-74-1 0.404

I mean, Washington has been 11 games better over that span, which was mostly during the Dan Snyder era!

I think we could poke fun at Daniel Jones here, or the GM, or the head coach, but really it's simply one of the of the worst franchise in professional sports lately, and that probably has to fall on ownership.

Graveyard

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Hierarchy

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13) Cowboys (3-6): Dan Quinn is gone, and Mike Zimmer is running the Cowboys' defense. Zimmer was out of the league the last two seasons. In the last two seasons before that when he was Vikings' head coach, his defenses stunk:

Vikings D 2020 rank 2021 rank
Points allowed 29 24
Yards allowed (total) 27 30
Yards allow (pass) 25 28
Yards allowed (run) 27 26

Also, in his 22 years as a defensive coordinator or head coach, Zimmer's defenses finished in the bottom half of the league in takeaways in 13 seasons.

Under Quinn from 2021 to 2023, the Cowboys had 93 takeaways, best in the NFL. So far in 2024, they have 8. Only 4 teams (Browns, Raiders, Titans) have fewer.

On the giveaway front, the Cowboys have turned it over 18 times. Only the Raiders have more.

On the season, the Cowboys are -10 in turnover differential. Here's how that compares with recent seasons:

Cowboys Tornover differential
2021 +14
2022 +10
2023 +10
2024 -10

Turnover regression was always going to bite the Cowboys at some point, because it's simply too hard to have a positive double-digit differential every season, but it has really bitten them with a vengeance this season.

And yes, obviously we could kill off the Cowboys this week, and that might be fun given that Jerry Jones got mad about questions about the sun peeking through the windows at JerryWorld:

Jerry Jones when asked about the design of AT&T Stadium. https://t.co/ZM20WU7cdE pic.twitter.com/8nyvFsuMqo

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) November 11, 2024

But they also play on Monday Night Football next week, so we'll save their obit for the next Hierarchy.

Last week: 13

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12) Bears (4-5): The Bears have scored 27 points combined in their last three games:• At Commanders: L, 18-15
• At Cardinals: L, 29-9
• Patriots: L, 19-3
On Sunday, Caleb Williams averaged 4.0 YPA on 30 pass attempts and was sacked 9 times. The Bears had 69 net passing yards. After the game, Bears reporters asked about a QB switch, and rightfully so, given Williams' poor play (via @benbbaldwin): This team sucks, and we could probably kill them off this week, but we'll give them one more chance to show something in a divisional game Week 11 against the Packers.Last week: 11

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11) Seahawks (4-5): The Seahawks have their bye Week 10 and I have a short week to get to all the things I need to write before the Eagles' next game on Thursday, so I'm exercising my right not to write anything about the Seahawks this week.

Last week: 12

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10) Rams (4-5): Sean McVay kicked field goals on 4th and 4 from the Miami 16, 4th and 3 from the Miami 37, and 4th and Goal from the Miami 4. They didn't score any touchdowns, and lost 23-15.

(For those of you who criticized Nick Sirianni's aggressive decisions against the Jaguars last week.)

Last week: 8

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9) Buccaneers (4-6): The Bucs have lost four straight to the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and 49ers, all teams that are likely to make the playoffs this season, in my opinion, and they've at least been competitive in all of those games.

Despite the losing streak, they're still kind of in the hunt in the NFC South, where the Falcons have failed to pull away.

They should be getting Mike Evans back after their Week 11 bye, and it's hard to imagine an easier remaining schedule:

  1. At Giants
  2. At Panthers
  3. Raiders
  4. At Chargers
  5. At Cowboys
  6. Panthers
  7. Saints

Combined winning percentage of those teams (0.328).

Last week: 9

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8) Falcons (6-4): As noted above, the Falcons had a chance to put the NFC South away Week 10 against a Saints team that is dead and buried and has looked absolutely awful for two months. With a win they would've had a three-game lead in the division, with a head-to-head sweep over the Buccaneers. It would be over. Now? The window is creaked open juuuuust a bit.

Last week: 8

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7) Cardinals (6-4): The Cardinals have been involved in a bunch of blowouts this season:

• Week 2: 41-10 win over the Rams
• Week 4: 42-14 loss to the Commanders
• Week 6: 34-13 loss to the Packers
• Week 9: 29-9 win over the Bears
• Week 10: 31-6 win over the Jets

I don't really have any takeaways about that. Just an observation.

The Cardinals have won four straight, and I wonder if their Week 11 bye is coming at an inopportune time while they're on a hot streak.

Last week: 11

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6) 49ers (5-4): Yikes:

After the 49ers missed their third kick of the game, Deebo Samuel put his hands on the neck of long snapper Taybor Pepper.
That got Pepper … fired up.
All is not well on the SF sideline. pic.twitter.com/SLftVrPSda

— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) November 10, 2024

That kind of reminds me of this:

Pretty big difference in leadership there.

Deebo Samuel had 6 combined catches on 17 targets for 66 yards (3.9 yards per target), with 9 carries for -1 yard in the Niners' elimination games the last two seasons against the Chiefs (Super Bowl) and Eagles (NFCCG).

Last week: 7

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5) Packers (6-3): It was a tough bye week for the Packers. They had to watch the Vikings win despite a crappy game from Sam Darnold, and the Texans blow a Sunday night game against the Lions, with the help of a non-call on one of the more obvious pass interference fouls you'll see this season:

Last week: 4

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4) Vikings (7-2): Sam Darnold's first four games this season vs. his last five:

Sam Darnold Comp-Att (%) Yards (YPA) TD-INT QB Rating
First 4 games 73-106 (68.9%) 932 (8.8) 11-3 118.9
Last 5 games 106-159 (68.4%) 1209 (7.8) 6-7 85.7

Against the Jaguars on Sunday, Darnold threw three INTs. This one was particularly bad:

Jaguars come up with a red zone INT!
📺: #MINvsJAX on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/28OKavqWWQ

— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024

Oof. All day to throw, missed a wide open Aaron Jones, and the throw didn't have a chance to be completed even if not intercepted.

The Vikings did win that game, 12-7, and they now have a 7-2 record, but it's kind of hard to take the Vikings seriously as Super Bowl contenders with Darnold as the quarterback, as he is regressing back toward the player that he has been over the course of his career.

Last week: 6

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3) Commanders (7-3): Jayden Daniels had easily his worst performance of the season Week 10 against the Steelers both as a passer (36.2 QBR) and as a runner (3 rushes for 5 yards), and the Commanders still scored 27 points on one of the best defenses in the NFL.Last week: 2

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2) Eagles (7-2): With the season that Saquon Barkley has had, and the highlight reel plays that he has accumulated throughout the season, it's almost kind of easy to forget about A.J. Brown a little bit. But in games that Brown has played, the Eagles are undefeated (6-0) and they're averaging over 30 points per game.

Last week: 3

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1) Lions (8-1): I don't love Dan Campbell as a game manager, in-game, but there's little question that his team scratches and claws for 60 minutes, as evidenced by their win Sunday night in Houston. It's not often you can throw 5 INTs against a playoff-caliber team on the road and still come away with a win, but they did. In an odd way, that kind of win can be more impressive and can build more team character than a straight blowout.

Last week: 1

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