NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Post-draft and schedule release edition

For those of you who are new here, we do a "Hierarchy/Obituary" post every week during the season, in which we kill off teams that have reached the point where they have almost no chance to make the playoffs. We then write their obituary and never speak of them in the Hierarchy again.

Anyway, it's my hackneyed sell-out spin on the more traditional "power rankings." Got it? Cool. Let's do a post-draft and schedule release edition.

16) Saints (5-12 in 2024): Saints fans received fantastic news earlier this week when the competent-but-harmless Derek Carr announced his retirement, while also getting cap relief in the process. This Saints team had no chance of contending in 2025, and all Carr was going to do was help them win a few more games they otherwise wouldn't have, thus hurting their chances for a top pick in the 2026 draft.But man are they also going to be bad without Carr. In the 10 games Carr started last season, the Saints were 5-5. In the games he did not play in, they were 0-7 with a point differential of -123, or an average margin of defeat of 17.6 points.Spencer Rattler started those seven games. He'll compete for a starting job with rookie Tyler Shough, who is only a year and a month younger than Jalen Hurts.

15) Giants (3-14 in 2024): The Giants went 3-13 in 2024, didn't even get a top-2 pick, and now also have the hardest schedule in the NFL in 2025. Their schedule, with their opponents' 2024 records and point differentials:

Or if you prefer your strength of schedule projections to based on 2025 Super Bowl odds, there's this chart from Deniz Selmon:

2025 NFL Strength of Schedule for all 32 teams based on average opponent ranking by current Super Bowl odds. pic.twitter.com/AimgM9Oc4Z

— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) May 13, 2025

As you can see, the Giants still have the hardest schedule. But worse, their first eight games are brutal. They're going to be done by November.

14) Panthers (5-12 in 2024): Congrats to the Panthers, who got an encouraging season out of Bryce Young in 2024 and enter this season with at least a shred of hope for the first time in years.

13) Bears (5-12 in 2024): Caleb Williams adamantly did not want to be drafted by the Bears, according to a report from ESPN. And worse, he instead wanted to play for the division rival Vikings.

It's kind of funny that the Bears drafted a player who didn't want to play for them when they could have taken the better QB, Jayden Daniels, who ironically didn't want to play for the Commanders initially, at least per a report from Adam Schefter.

I will say that I thought the Bears did a nice job this offseason, prioritizing help for Williams, by adding the following players:

1. OG Joe Thuney: Via trade (fourth-round pick)
2. C Drew Dalman: Free agency, 3 years, $42 million
3. OG Jonah Jackson: Via trade (sixth-round pick)
4. TE Colston Loveland: First-round pick
5. WR Luther Burden: Second-round pick
6. OT Ozzy Trapilo: Second-round pick

Unfortunately, that ESPN story is now going to consume the Bears' entire offseason going forward. So, you know, have fun with all that, Chicago.

12) 49ers (6-11 in 2024): Above we showed the Giants' super hard schedule. Who has the easiest schedule in the NFL? That would be the Niners.

In addition to playing in their own crappy division, they get to play the two worst divisions in the NFL in the NFC South and the AFC South, and their three floating games are against the Bears, Giants, and Browns. A combined point differential of -845 is nuts. That Panthers-Browns-Titans-Colts-Bears stretch near the end of the season is as easy as it gets.

11) Falcons (8-9 in 2024): For the second consecutive year the Falcons provided the biggest "WTF?!" moment of the draft.

In 2024, they drafted Michael Penix eighth overall a month after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal with $100 million guaranteed.

In 2025, they traded up from the second round to pick 25 select edge rusher James Pearce. As part of the deal they gave up their 2026 first-round pick. There's a decent enough chance that 2026 first-round pick will be in the top 10.

In the Eagles' war room, Howie Roseman had been trying to trade up for Jihaad Campbell, and when he learned of the Falcons' trade he quipped, "I understand why people aren't taking our deals," followed by some laughter. 4:35 mark below:

I'm actually surprised the Eagles didn't edit that out. I imagine a lot of teams around the league laughed at the Falcons in their respective war rooms.

10) Seahawks (10-7 in 2024): The Seahawks have become the irrelevant "Who cares?" team for me in the NFC.

9) Cowboys (7-10 in 2024): Since 2018, the Cowboys have traded for five wide receivers:

Amari Cooper was the Cowboys' best receiver for a while, but he only played in Dallas for 3.5 years. Austin did almost nothing, Cooks was a below average WR2, and the Mingo trade was obviously dumb the second they made that deal.

And, of course, they made two of the worst wide receiver trades in NFL history during the Jerry Jones era:

• They traded a 1, a 3, and a 6 for Roy Williams, who produced 1324 receiving yards in 3.5 seasons with Dallas.

• They traded two first-round picks for Joey Galloway, who produced 2341 receiving yards in 4 seasons with Dallas.

We'll see what becomes of Pickens.

8) Cardinals (8-9 in 2024): I don't love Kyler Murray and wouldn't hitch my wagon to him like the Cardinals have, but otherwise I think Arizona's front office has assembled decent talent. Jonathan Gannon's job should be in serious peril if they don't make the playoffs this season.

7) Vikings (14-3 in 2024): Teams that had the biggest decreases in wins from 2023 to 2024:

• Browns: -8
• 49ers: -6
• Cowboys and Jaguars: -5
• Saints and Raiders: -4

I'm trying to decide if the Vikings or Commanders will have the bigger decrease in win total from 2024 to 2025.

6) Packers (11-6 in 2024): I look at this Packers team, and I try to think about Jordan Love's third season as a starter, or their pass rush, or whatever actual football-related thing, but I really can't look at this team and get over how they're trying to litigate a play out of the game because they couldn't stop it on the field. As an organization, they are pathetic losers, and I'd be embarrassed by their actions if I were a Packers fan.

5) Commanders (11-6 in 2024): During the regular season, the Commanders had the third-worst run defense in the NFL, in terms of rushing yards allowed:

The Commanders were the outlier, in that they had a 12-5 record, while the rest of the above teams had a combined record of 44-109 (0.288).

In the playoffs, the Commanders gave up 177.0 rushing yards per game, and 11 rushing TDs (7 against the Eagles in the NFCCG).

So what did they do to fix that this offseason? They signed Javon Kinlaw, who has been a terrible run defender his entire NFL career.

On the other side of the ball, the Commanders finished third in rushing, with 154.1 rushing yards per game. That's great and all, but my concern if I'm a Commanders fan is that Jayden Daniels led the team in rushing:

The biggest fear for any Commanders season going forward is Daniels going down at some point. I mean, I suppose that's true of most teams and their quarterbacks, but it's really true for Washington. Other quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, etc. all run the ball their fair share, but they won't have to carry their teams' rushing attacks like Daniels will.

Anyway, I guess I have pretty big concerns about the Commanders' ground game on both sides of the ball.

4) Rams (10-7 in 2024): You know that dumb trade the Falcons made that we mentioned above? Well, they made it with the Rams, who have a good young talent nucleus, and with two first-round picks will now be in a great position to select a successor to Matthew Stafford in the 2026 draft.

3) Buccaneers (10-7 in 2024): The Bucs added Emeka Egbuka in the draft, which gives them an outstanding WR trio that also includes Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. In addition to their wide receivers, there's a lot to like about the Bucs' offense:

1. Very good pair of offensive tackles in Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke
2. A couple of up-and-coming young interior linemen in Graham Barton and Cody Mauch
3. A nice running back duo in Bucky Irving and Rashaad White
4. An ascending tight end in Cade Otton.

My "NFC quarterbacks with the best supporting offensive cast" power rankings:

1. Jalen Hurts
2. Baker Mayfield
3. Jared Goff

2) Lions (15-2 in 2024): The Lions will travel the least in the NFC this season, at just over 11,400 miles, per this guy:

NFL 2025-26 MILES TRAVELED
The 32 NFL teams will cover a total of 625,947 miles this season, averaging 19,561 per team, and 2,301 per trip. 6 NFL teams will travel more miles than it takes to go around the world.
Full Story, Team-By-Team Breakdown 🔽https://t.co/Fy1rsB6x1I pic.twitter.com/6pZY8ZjNTE

— Bill Speros (@billsperos) May 13, 2025

The Chargers' round trip to Brazil alone will rack up more miles (12,310) than the Lions will travel this season. I think that's actually a sneaky little advantage.

1) Eagles (Super Bowl champions in 2024): One thing that we didn't mention in our Eagles schedule advantages and disadvantages is that there are a lot of familiar teams on the Eagles' schedule who could have extra motivation to take them down this season:

• They stomped all over the Cowboys last season, blowing them out twice by a combined score of 75-13.

• They embarrassed Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs in a way that nobody ever has, and in front of a global audience.

• They blew out the Rams during the regular season, and then held them off in a closer game in the playoffs.

• They beat the Packers in Brazil, hurt their quarterback, and then bullied them in the Wild Card Round to such a degree that Green Bay's leadership is spending all offseason trying to ban one of their signature plays.

• They didn't play the Lions in 2024, but Nick Sirianni beat Dan Campbell in 2021 and 2022, and the Lions probably hold some Saints-like delusion that they would have beaten Philly if they themselves hadn't choked against the Commanders.

• They absolutely tore the Commanders apart, and joyfully so, in the NFC Championship Game.

All of those teams are going to be especially motivated to be at their best against the Eagles, and just generally speaking, the other teams on their schedule are going to want to knock off the champs.

MORE: Game-by-game Eagles 2025 win-loss predictions

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