How can the Sixers retain Guerschon Yabusele and other core role players this summer?

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, it is easier to gauge the Sixers' primary goals for the summer ahead.

Perhaps the most significant example of an action exhibiting a future priority: the Sixers electing to decline enticing trade offers for 29-year-old Guerschon Yabusele is a clear indication that they will make a spirited push to re-sign him in the offseason. That could very possibly require the team to perform the necessary salary cap maneuvering to open up the non-taxpayer's mid-level exception, significantly increasing their potential offer to him.

"I don't think you can ever be confident on an unrestricted free agent, but we feel very good," Sixers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey said when asked about whether he was confident the team could bring Yabusele back. "He loves it here. We love him. We just freed up more with [Caleb Martin's] contract going out… So we feel very good about retaining [Yabusele]."

When the Sixers traded Caleb Martin to Dallas, they did so to acquire not just their own second-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, but also fourth-year wing Quentin Grimes, who Morey and head coach Nick Nurse have indicated can be a significant rotation contributor now and moving forward.

Grimes, 24, is set to become a restricted free agent this summer. That means the Sixers will have the right to match any offer sheet Grimes signs with another team, but he is slated for at least a significant raise from his 2024-25 salary of just under $4.3 million — likely at least doubling that number in terms of average annual value while also earning a three- or four-year commitment.

The Sixers have three players who will have to make decisions on player options before free agency begins: Kelly Oubre Jr. for $8.3 million, Andre Drummond for $5 million and Eric Gordon for $3.4 million. The key is Oubre, whose number falls in the ballpark of what he would be expected to command on the open market. Oubre has been open about his desire to secure a long-term contract, so him opting out is probably the most likely outcome, even if he returns to the Sixers in short order.

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Despite not shooting the ball well from beyond the arc, Oubre has had an extremely impressive season, further cementing his ability to be an important piece of a very good team. His versatile perimeter defense, opportunistic scoring, intuitive cutting and consistent rim pressure make him a valuable role player, and the Sixers will very likely have significant interest in a reunion.

Drummond has had an extremely disappointing season, making it feel likely that he will pick up that $5 million option. Drummond's presence (or lack thereof) on the roster could be fairly important as the Sixers hope to bring back Yabusele, Grimes and Oubre. But Gordon's option is a formality which, as explained in Monday's edition of 5 Sixers thoughts, he will almost certainly decline, even if there is interest in the veteran sharpshooter spending another year in Philadelphia.

"When a team signs an external free agent on a two-year minimum deal, the salary in the second season can only be an increase of up to five percent from the prior year, hence Gordon's salary of $3,468,960. But if the 17-year-veteran reenters free agency this summer, the projected minimum salary for a player with his years of experience is worth over $3.6 million. Even if Gordon has interest in returning to the Sixers next year on a minimum salary, he will decline his option before re-signing — and if he returns on a one-year deal, his salary cap hit will be reduced to just under $2.3 million. This is because, while there is a sliding scale of minimum salaries that increases for players with more years of service, all minimum signings have the same cap hit to ensure teams are not inclined to stray away from signing older players."

The team trading Caleb Martin (and, to a much lesser degree, getting out ahead of the non-guaranteed 2025-26 salary of KJ Martin) signals a clear desire to improve a potential offer to Yabusele. The common perception has been that the team would only be able to offer him the taxpayer's mid-level exception, which limits them to two years and about $11.6 million.

Now, there is a path to the Sixers having access to the non-taxpayer's mid-level exception, which enables them to offer Yabusele a four-year deal worth just over $60 million, starting at a salary of $14.1 million in 2025-26. They do not have to offer him that exact amount, but just dipping into a decent portion of it would enable them to make a far more competitive offer than the two-year, $11.6 million deal that could fall well short of being enough to retain the fan favorite.

But the minute the Sixers start using the larger version of the mid-level exception, they will be hard-capped at the first apron. That means the team must field a roster of at least 14 players without going even one penny above that threshold, currently projected to be $195.9 million.

Not only is this a challenge to pull off logistically and mathematically, but it is also difficult to envision it leading to the Sixers constructing a championship-caliber team. The Sixers handed out over $400 million in future money to Joel Embiid and Paul George over the summer, tying their title aspirations to a player who has since displayed an inability to stay on the floor consistently and one who has seen a massive drop-off in production at 34 years old.

With Embiid, George and Tyrese Maxey slated to earn nearly $150 million combined, building a satisfactory supporting cast will be an uphill battle. But is it doable for the team to retain its three key free agents — all of which have played very well — and hope for better results from players at the top of its roster? Very possibly, if the team still believes in those three stars as the pillars of a championship contender. Let's dive into the numbers:

First of all, the below projections are going to be made under the assumption that the Sixers will not own their first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Speaking in terms of pure probabilities, it is currently possible but unlikely that their pick will land in the top six; if it does not the pick will belong to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

A few more notes on key assumptions here: I am anticipating that the Sixers will decline Justin Edwards' team option for next season in order to re-sign him on a long-term contract. I am also guessing that Jared Butler will earn a conversion to a standard contract later this season with a team option for next season, and he will be on the 2025-26 roster on a cost-effective deal of some kind.

The Sixers entered this season with 14 players on standard deals to create some future roster flexibility; I anticipate them doing the same next year for that reason and to create more breathing room below the apron should they need to.

Red salaries indicate they are not guaranteed; blue salaries indicate they are estimates.

If Drummond opts into his $5 million salary, the Sixers will have just under $30 million of 2025-26 money to hand to Oubre, Yabusele and Grimes. The key number to look at will be "Projected First Apron Space," which is essentially the magic number of how much the Sixers can spend on those three critical role players:

Drummond opting out of his $5 million — or opting in and being salary dumped in a trade, which could cost the Sixers multiple second-round picks unless a team views Drummond as a helpful piece of its center rotation — does not exactly save the Sixers $5 million. It saves them a bit more than half of that, as the team would have to replace him, likely with a player on a veteran's minimum deal worth just under $2.3 million. But even savings of about $2.7 million could be significant here as the Sixers walk a tightrope; smaller amounts of money have proven to be meaningful in tight squeezes for other teams in the league's new salary cap environment.

Here is what the team's cap sheet could look like without Drummond's $5 million being on their books:

Given the enormity of the NBA's rookie scale in today's day and age, the presence of a top-six draft pick would complicate this picture quite a bit. Be assured, that will eventually be covered here should it become a reality or a significant possibility — and, of course, that is the prototypical good problem to have.

Bringing back Oubre, Yabusele and Grimes alongside Embiid, George, Maxey and Jared McCain will not be an easy squeeze for the Sixers to make, but it is certainly conceivable that they will be able to pull it off. Now that there is a clearer picture of what the cap sheet will look like moving forward without either Martin in the picture, the $30 million ballpark seems like the current target for the combined salaries of Oubre, Yabusele and Grimes.

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