There's only one day to go before Super Bowl LIX is finally here. Let's pass a few minutes of that time with a mailbag, shall we? Cool. This is Part II of a two-part mailbag (Part I here).
Question from @wgordon711 (via Bluesky): Call your shot, what will be the play of the game that everyone will be talking about Monday morning?
In 2017, that was either the "Philly Special" or the Brandon Graham strip sack.
In 2022, if you're a Chiefs fan, maybe you think it was the Kadarius Toney punt return, the Patrick Mahomes fourth quarter scramble, or the in-out motion plays that the Eagles' defense couldn't adjust to. If you're an Eagles fan it was the James Bradberry holding call.
In 2024, I have the Eagles winning 28-25, with the Chiefs scoring a late, garbage-time TD plus a 2-point conversion to make the score look closer than the flow of the game. I'm going to say that the play of the game is a 4th and 3 call from the Chiefs' 40, with the Eagles up 21-17. The Chiefs pack the box, and Jalen Hurts hits DeVonta Smith on a deep sideline shot for a TD about mid-way through the fourth quarter to go up 28-17.
Be sure to call your shots as well.
Question from @pensandlighters: Is there a stronger correlation of recent SB winners in terms of record or point differential?
Over the last 15 Super Bowls (not including LIX), 17 of 30 (0.567) teams participating in the Super Bowl were 1 seeds. Seven of those 15 Super Bowl winners were 1 seeds.
Because you need to have the best record to earn the 1 seed, I would say that having the best record in your conference strongly correlates to your chances of winning it all. #Analysis.
I do like point differential as a 60,000-foot view of the league, and obviously the teams that have good point differentials are usually going to make the tourney. For example, the top 11 teams in point differential in 2024 all made the playoffs.
However, the last time the team that led the NFL in point differential during the regular season won the Super Bowl was in 2017, when the Eagles did it.
The last seven seasons:
• 2024: Lions (+222)
• 2023: Ravens (+203)
• 2022: 49ers (+173)
• 2021: Bills (+194)
• 2020: Ravens (+165)
• 2019: Ravens (+249)
• 2018: Saints (+151)
None of those teams even made it to the Super Bowl.
Question from @mdonz610: What is the biggest matchup advantage & disadvantage for the Eagles?
In my opinion, this is not a very good Chiefs offensive line. We've been through this throughout the week, but after three different left tackles proved ineffective for the Chiefs this season, they moved LG Joe Thuney out to LT, and filled in Mike Caliendo at LG.
Thuney is nowhere near as good a LT as he is a LG, and the dropoff from Thuney to Caliendo at LG is substantial. I also don't love Jawaan Taylor out at RT.
That's three potential problem areas for the Chiefs' offensive line.
As the season has progressed, Nolan Smith has gotten better and better, and Jalen Carter has remained a beast. I think this is a major opportunity for the Georgia guys to have a big impact.
As for matchup disadvantages, while I believe that Jalen Hurts has come a long way against the blitz this season after he and the staff worked hard on fixing their issues all summer and into the regular season, Steve Spagnuolo is a master at getting free rushers at the quarterback. That, combined with Hurts' penchant for holding onto the ball for an eternity, is a path to a Chiefs "Three-Peat."
Mailbag Part I: Who does the Superdome field surface benefit more?
Question from @lil_falafel: Who are the potential offensive coordinator candidates outside of Kevin Patullo?
When the Super Bowl is over, we'll take a deeper look at who is available, and lay out the pros and cons for each, assuming the Saints hire Kellen Moore to become their new head coach. But I did just want to briefly answer this question because I think the hiring will answer whether or not Nick Sirianni truly has control over building his coaching staff. If Sirianni has his way, I'm convinced it'll be Patullo. If someone else is hired to be the offensive coordinator, there's a good chance Sirianni will not have picked them.
Question from @89tremaine: Rank from most likely to least likely:
- Chiefs win by one score
- Chiefs win by 7-14
- Chiefs win in a blowout (14+)
- Eagles win by one score
- Eagles win by 7-14
- Eagles win in a blowout (14+)
I have it like this:
- Eagles by one score
- Eagles by 7-14
- Chiefs by one score
- Eagles in a blowout
- Chiefs by 7-14
- Chiefs in a blowout
There's an overwhelming sentiment that the Chiefs will win if it's a one-score game, you know, because they've won 17 one-score games in a row. I get that. But, again, the Eagles are the better team in my opinion, and they also have a lot of players who have played in big games. I trust them to execute in big moments.
Question from @fandru (via Bluesky): Who gets the most glory if the Eagles get the win? Vic Fangio? Nick Sirianni? Kellen Moore? For me this is all about Fangio's crowning achievement.
It won't be Moore. If the offense has a big day it'll be some combination of Nick Sirianni, Jalen Hurts, and Saquon Barkley.
If it's a defensive struggle and the Eagles come out on top, then yep, I could see Fangio getting all the well-deserved extra love nationally.
Locally, if you win a Super Bowl, everyone involved is loved for life in Philly, obviously.
Question from @austinwullsch: Who do you think is the best coordinator in this game? Nagy (lol), Spags, Fangio, or Moore?
I'd power rank them like so:
- Steve Spagnuolo: Four Super Bowl wins with two different teams, including one of the best defensive game plans ever in a Super Bowl (Giants-Patriots, XLII).
- Vic Fangio: Fangio has probably had the better season than Spags, but Spags has had the better DC career. Both are great.
- Kellen Moore: Moore at least gets to run his own offense to some degree, and he seems to have already landed a head coaching job.
- Matt Nagy: It's Andy's offense.
MORE: Jimmy's Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl LIX pick
Question from @brian_pagano: If you had to pick an unsung hero to have a big moment in the game who would it be? I’m thinking how Trey Burton completed the Philly special pass.
We kind of already answered versions of this question above as well as in the first mailbag, but I wanted to quickly address the Trey Burton aspect of this question.
Back in 2017 I did weekly chats, and the week leading up to the Super Bowl, someone asked if the Eagles could have a trick play up their sleeve and specifically mentioned Burton potentially throwing a pass because he was a quarterback in college.
I didn't choose that as a question to answer, so it never really appeared on the internet publicly. I'm curious if you're out there, Trey Burton question asker. If so, come forward and take your credit.
Question from @PatrickCahiII: I know you’ve chronicled the Eagles #Animalytics but this is somehow their 5th straight Super Bowl against people mascot teams. What do you make of that and what’s their record in those games over the last few years?
In 2024, the Eagles were 6-1 vs. animal teams. They beat the Bengals, Jaguars, Ravens, Panthers, and the Rams twice. They lost to the Falcons.
They were 11-2 against people mascot teams. They beat the Saints, Browns, Steelers, the Giants twice, the Cowboys twice, the Packers twice, and the Commanders twice. They lost to the Buccaneers and Commanders.
A win over the Chiefs would give the Eagles the same winning percentage against people mascot teams as animal mascot teams. If this isn't the most telling sign that the Eagles will win the Super Bowl, then I don't know what is.
MORE: Gardner-Johnson, Reed Blankenship say they're the best safety duo in the NFL
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