Now that the Sixers have locked in the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, it is time to get up to speed on all of the best non-Cooper Flagg prospects in this year's class.
Today's prospect: Tre Johnson, a dynamic offensive guard from Texas with some defensive and size questions. Johnson could go in the top five next month, and perhaps it is not out of the question that he garners real consideration from the Sixers at No. 3 thanks to his prolific ability to put the ball in the basket.
Here to help educate us: Ahmed Jama, who does a stellar job covering the draft for Swish Theory.Let's dive in…
Adam Aaronson: A similar question to the one which led off our Kon Knueppel Q&A – everyone knows Johnson is a terrific three-point shooter. But can you contextualize just how skilled he is on that front? How will whichever team drafts Johnson be able to utilize that ability – is he merely a deadly spot-up shooter or can he also thrive as a pull-up and movement shooter?
Ahmed Jama: Simply put, Johnson is coming off the most impressive jump-shooting season for a freshman since at least the advent of college play-by-play statistics (2010). Johnson’s shooting resume from this past season is absolutely elite in every facet. Shooting 87 percent from the line, 39 percent from three on a high volume (near 12 attempts per 100 possessions), and perhaps most impressively shooting efficiently despite a good deal of his attempts being self-created (33 percent unassisted rate on his three-point makes). I don’t see there being an aspect of shooting where Johnson doesn’t project to excel in, and he has as much potential as any prospect of the last decade to eventually lay claim to being the best shooter in the world.
AA: Johnson is still extremely young and will be aided by an impressive wingspan. But he measured in at just 190 pounds and did not seem to make much of an impact at all on the defensive end at Texas. Is he destined for a future as a negative defender whose offensive value outweighs those struggles, or is there some semblance of hope he can have two-way value? Is there any world in which he is capable of handling wing assignments on a regular basis in the short- or long-term, perhaps making him a better fit with Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain, or is that concept a total pipe dream?
AJ: The defensive projection for Johnson is much bleaker than the offensive end, and despite his measurements I’m more pessimistic on how he’ll develop defensively than consensus. As stated in the question, Johnson has a slight frame, and doesn’t compensate for the subpar physical tools with exceptional defensive instincts. As an on-ball defender, Johnson obviously struggles with larger wings, and doesn’t have the lateral movement to stay in front of smaller perimeter players. Off-ball, he had frequent lapses executing Texas’ defensive scheme, even though he was frequently tasked with defending the opponents’ weakest perimeter scorer.
Perhaps most concerning with Johnson’s defensive projection, and what has me most skeptical he’ll ever develop into a positive or even neutral defender, is his inability to contribute on the glass. For his size and length I’d wager Johnson is one of the weakest rebounders I have evaluated. This deficiency speaks not only to his frailty but how little lineup flexibility he’ll afford whatever team drafts him, as there will most likely need to be accommodations made to make-up for his inability to close out possessions. Obviously with the current roster construction, integrating Johnson into a lineup with Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain would most likely compound issues currently faced by the team defensively.
MORE: What if Dylan Harper falls to No. 3?
AA: Circling back to the offensive end of the floor, Johnson is clearly a massive three-point shooting threat, but how does he round out his overall scoring game inside the arc?
AJ: Honestly I don’t ever see Johnson becoming a significant threat as an interior scorer, and perhaps the biggest boon to his efficiency would be a tweak in his shot profile. If he were to substitute the extreme diet of midrange jump-shots he’s grown accustomed to with more threes, effectively "Moreyball-ing" his shot diet, I think there would be a positive downstream effect to his rim efficiency. The further Johnson is able to stretch the defense the easier it should be for him to generate clean paint touches, and lower his reliance on tough mid-range jumpers.
MORE: Will No. 3 overall pick prevent Sixers from Guerschon Yabusele, Quentin Grimes?
AA: You have been scouting Johnson for years, dating back to his pre-college career. From those times scouting his high school and USA Basketball tape to now, where do you believe Johnson has made the most important strides in his development?
AJ: Johnson has always projected to be a nuclear shooter and scorer, in previous settings I was uncertain if he’d ever parlay his scoring prowess into consistent playmaking for his teammates. This past season with Texas he answered those questions emphatically, even exhibiting growth as a playmaker over the course of the season. As Johnson earned his stripes as a scorer in conference play, opposing teams prioritized reducing his impact on the game by throwing him a variety of seemingly increasingly aggressive coverages. No matter the complexity of the coverages he was confronted with, Johnson never wavered, increasing his assist rate throughout conference play while protecting the ball. Johnson finished with a 1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is stellar considering his role. Johnson's rapid growth as a playmaker bolsters my confidence in his ability to eventually step into a featured role for a NBA offense.
ASKING NBA DRAFT EXPERTS ABOUT SIXERS' POSSIBLE CHOICES AT NO. 3
Ace Bailey | V.J. Edgecombe | Kon Knueppel | Derik Queen
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