Now that the Sixers have locked in the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, it's time to get up to speed on all of the best non-Cooper Flagg prospects in this year's class.
Today's prospect: Ace Bailey, one of the most polarizing prospects in recent draft history. Evaluations of the 18-year-old forward range from a future superstar in the ilk of Kevin Durant to a role player who will fail to ever create shots with the ball in his hands at the next level.
Here to help educate us: Matt Powers, who does a stellar job covering all things draft-centric for Swish Theory, one of the best sources of draft content. Matt is currently unveiling a series of stories ranking the three best prospects in this year's class at 10 different skills. Once you're done reading this Q&A, check out the second edition of that series, where he ranks Bailey first among all prospects in an important skill. That will be linked at the bottom of this story.Let's dive in…
Adam Aaronson: Bailey seems to be the most polarizing player in this year’s class. Some see a superstar with dynamic shot-making as a big wing, others believe he is one-dimensional and does not have good enough skills with the ball to reach that level or anything close. Where are you at relative to the consensus on the possibility of Bailey becoming a star? What are the biggest obstacles in the way of him achieving that status?
Matt Powers: Bailey is a deceptively complex evaluation, but a fun one. It is obvious to see the star upside with his stunning displays of elite shooting touch off of difficult angles as a big wing. Bailey was efficient from catch and shoot while drawing a ton of attention from defenses – 44% from three when guarded! – but his percentages dropped immensely when taking more difficult off-the-dribble looks. The form passes the eye test, but the shot selection overall is problematic.
The biggest swing skill in determining Bailey's star upside is his passing. He is truly a Jekyll and Hyde passer, sometimes capable of finding a cutter or hitting a skip at the exact right moment with accuracy; more often, he is found struggling with the basic – his 8.0 percent assist rate is putrid considering his usage rate. The handle, meanwhile, I have trust in relative to some of the league’s more spot-up specialists like Jabari Smith Jr., Michael Porter Jr. and Trey Murphy III, but lags behind that of the league’s true wing creators.
Bailey doesn’t turn 19 until after the draft, as there is plenty of time for him to clean up these rough edges. But if you expect a star, or even a significant contribution, over his rookie contract, you will likely be disappointed. Given the significant warts in his profile, notably incessantly bad shot selection and struggles with the simple things, I find myself lower than consensus on the odds of him ever reaching All-Star status.
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AA: So much has been made of Bailey’s offensive skill set and whether or not it lends itself to stardom, but what have you made of him as a defensive player? He certainly appears to have the requisite frame to be a good wing defender, but it sounds like he has merely shown flashes on that end of the floor rather than consistent impact. Is that an accurate assessment?
MP: Bailey’s defense also has stark contrasts between the good and the bad. He has the tools to be an awesome help-side rim protector, quick with a seven-foot wingspan who has not been afraid to meet you at the rim. When he’s locked in, he is a real rim deterrent. The issue is, much like with the passing, the consistency of focus is a problem. Again, very young, time to clean things up, but there will be plenty of moments of him being overwhelmed with the speed of action over his first few seasons (and maybe longer).
But I do think he has areas where he will provide value immediately. I believe in Ace as a rebounder: he is great at tracking the ball and, most importantly of all, he plays hard. That soft skill is often a critical point for high-usage shot-makers who sometimes don’t care about the other side of the ball. Ace does. His foot speed and will to compete bode well for his on-ball ability. He may not be a true wing stopper with his lithe frame and good-not-great technique, but the consistency of effort does signal that when you scale down his offensive usage, you can reap some defensive benefits.
AA: Something I appreciate about your scouting process is that you don’t just watch a player’s collegiate career, but also their games in high school or AAU beforehand. Did you notice any trends in Bailey’s development from his pre-Rutgers days to his season with the Scarlet Knights that are worth noting?
MP: Ace’s pre-NCAA tape is kind of hilarious – he took nine threes and 15 twos per game in high school, almost always of the difficult kind. The tape does show an inability to make things easy on himself on offense even against worse athletes, especially as he could not dominate physically with a minuscule 0.17 free throw rate (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts) for his size. Even at the lower competition level, his assist-to-turnover ratio was 0.6, the same red flag as at Rutgers. But we also saw that same effort on the glass with over 13 rebounds per game.
As far as changes since high school, most notably Bailey has developed a hell of a floater game. He has seemingly realized he has the fluidity and touch to simply throw it up anywhere within 10 feet of the hoop and it will hit at a decent percentage. That’s the kind of flexibility of approach needed to become one of the NBA’s top scorers, and why I can’t quit Ace’s upside. Despite often struggling with the simple, Ace has plenty of moments of genius.
MORE: Diving into trade scenarios at No. 3
AA: Speaking of Rutgers, many are confused that a team with two projected top-five picks in Bailey and Dylan Harper struggled so much. Should that be remotely concerning and a relevant piece of a team’s calculus when evaluating Bailey?
MP: It should absolutely be a consideration when thinking about Bailey’s day one contribution. If you want to compete immediately, look elsewhere. Harper and Bailey’s supporting cast was not the best, with non-Harper teammates shooting a putrid 31 percent on catch-and-shoot threes, but I’m not sure how much better Bailey would have looked if the spacing was better. Taking tough shots is a feature of Bailey’s game, and his lack of an elite handle or finishing/grifting package has meant he has only earned 0.86 points per driving possession. Despite playing off of a dynamic playmaker and passer in Harper, Bailey was only in the seventh percentile for cut frequency, showing a heavy preference for isolations instead, where he was in the 96th percentile for frequency (with only medium efficiency). More spacing can only fix that so much.
Editor's note: You can find out which skill set Matt ranks Bailey as the best in this year's class at by clicking here and reading at Swish Theory.
MORE: What if Harper falls to No. 3?
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