NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Week 12 edition

Week 11 is in the books, and there are two teams — the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams — that sit atop the NFC with 8-2 records. We have one new obituary this week, the Minnesota Vikings.

Obituary: Vikings (4-6)

The Vikings finished the 2024 season at 14-3. They have already doubled their loss total through the first 10 games of this season, and are in a race to have the NFL's biggest dropoff in wins from 2024 to 2025.

Teams that already have more losses in 2025 than they had in 2024:
Commanders: +3 losses
Chiefs: +3
Vikings: +3
Lions: +2
Teams with more wins in 2025 than they had in 2024:
Patriots: +5 wins
Jaguars: +2
Bears: +2
Panthers: +1
49ers: +1

— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) November 17, 2025

J.J. McCarthy stepped into as an ideal a situation as he could hope for. The Vikings have a good offensive line; passing game targets that include Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Adam Thielen, and T.J. Hockenson; a smart veteran running back in Aaron Jones; and a defense that finished second in takeaways in 2024.

And he has been terrible. On the season, McCarthy is 74 of 140 (52.9%) for 842 yards (6.0 YPA), 6 TDs, 8 INTs, 15 sacks, and 4 fumbles. 61.7 QB rating. In that offense, with those receivers and a good offensive line? Yuck. 🤢

Carson Wentz was objectively terrible when he filled in for McCarthy earlier this season, and his numbers are significantly better than McCarthy's:

McCarthy has only played five NFL games, so it's maybe a little early to definitively say, "He sucks." Buuuuut, uhhhhh, he very likely just sucks.

The Vikings mostly have a good team. They just don't have a quarterback, and in the NFL if you don't have a quarterback, unless you're the 2000 Ravens you have no chance.

Graveyard

Hierarchy

10) Cowboys (4-5-1): For one night Jerry Jones probably felt vindicated. The three guys he acquired in splash trades all did stuff:

• George Pickens: 9 catches, 144 yards, 1 TD

• Quinnen Williams: 4 tackles, 1.5 sacks

• Kenny Clark: 2 tackles, 0.5 sacks

The Cowboys have a chance to make the NFC East at least mildly interesting next Sunday if they can beat the Eagles. If not, they'll be in the graveyard.

Last week: 11

9) Panthers (6-5): The Panthers have their WR1 in Tetairoa McMillan. Rookie receiving leaders:

1. Tetairoa McMillan, CAR: 748 receiving yards
2. Emeka Egbuka, TB: 717
3. Tyler Warren, IND: 617
4. Oronde Gadsden II, LAC: 507

They also have a good running back group as well as an improving quarterback and offensive line.

Oh, and they have a better record than the Chiefs.

Last week: 10

8) 49ers (7-4): Brock Purdy started Week 1, missed Weeks 2 and 3, started Week 4, and then missed Weeks 5-10. He was back again Week 11, and was very efficient. 19 of 26 for 200 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs. They'll probably be in the tourney.

Last week: 8

7) Bears (7-3): If the season ended today, the Bears would be the 3 seed in the NFC, with a point differential of -6, lol. The Bears have a 7-3 record because they have won a bunch of close games, mainly as a result of leading the NFL in turnover differential by a wide margin:

1. Bears: +16
2. Rams: +10
3. Buccaneers: +9
4. Steelers: +8
5. Jaguars: +8

They also lead the NFL in INTs, with 15. Their INTs have come against the following quarterbacks:

• Spencer Rattler: 3
• J.J. McCarthy (2 games): 3
• Geno Smith: 3
• Joe Flacco: 2
• Dak Prescott: 2
• Joe Milton: 1
• Jayden Daniels: 1

And good for them! They can't control who they play, and they're taking advantage of playing mostly bad quarterbacks.

But those INTs will probably dry up when they start playing better quarterbacks.

Last week: 7

6) Packers (6-3-1): As noted above, the Bears would be the 3 seed if the season ended today. They're at the top of the NFC North standings:

Five of the Packers' last seven games are against NFC North rivals:

• Week 12: Vikings
• Week 13: At Lions
• Week 14: Bears
• Week 15: At Broncos
• Week 16: At Bears
• Week 17: Ravens
• Week 18: At Vikings

Those divisional games are probably easier than the two AFC games left on their schedule.

Last week: 6

5) Buccaneers (6-4): The 10 worst teams in the NFL in points allowed per game:

1. Bengals: 33.4
2. Cowboys: 30.8
3. Titans: 27.3
4. Giants: 27.3
5. Commanders: 26.9
6. Jets: 26.8
7. Bears: 26.4
8. Cardinals: 25.6
9. Ravens: 25.1
10. Buccaneers: 25.0

Early in the season the Bucs were winning seesaw shootouts. More recently they're losing them.

Also, though they remain heavy favorites in the NFC South, they have a team breathing down their necks:

Last week: 5

4) Lions (6-4): "They got the best O-line in the league," Vic Fangio said of the Lions during his weekly presser last Wednesday. I don't know if that was a motivational tool Fangio was using for his defense, but that is most definitely not "the best O-line in the league" right now. That unit got punched in the mouth Sunday night.

The starting LG is on IR, the would-be starting C retired this summer, the RG is a rookie still trying to find his way as a pass protector, and the star offensive tackles — Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker — got owned by the Eagles' edge rushers at times.

That would be my biggest concern if I'm a Lions fan. They are not the offensive juggernaut we saw in 2024 if the O-line can't get healthy and play better down the stretch.

Last week: 4

3) Seahawks (7-3): It was a big day for the Sam Darnold skeptics, as Darnold threw 4 INTs in a loss to the Rams. As we saw in the playoffs last season, if you can get pressure on Darnold and get him to move off of his spot and/or make off-platform throws, he is susceptible to major mistakes. Here are those 4 INTs:

And yet, Darnold's bad game almost kind of underscores why the Seahawks are so dangerous. They were still just a long field goal attempt away from beating the Rams on the road despite Darnold's putrid day. Whatever your feelings are of the quarterback aside, that's a really good team.

Last week: 2

2) Eagles (8-2): Remember back in Week 6 when the Eagles' D-line got bullied by the Giants? Well, since then, all four of their opponents have rushed for fewer than 4 yards per carry:

That's where it has all started for the defense. They're stopping the run, and then getting after opposing quarterbacks in longer downs/distances. That is not something they were doing earlier in the season.

No team in the NFL is playing defense like the Eagles right now.

Unfortunately, the offense is very clearly a mess. They're going to be in the playoffs with a high seed, with seven games to figure out the offense until then.

Last week: 3

1) Rams (8-2): The Rams had an ugly, Eagles-like game on Sunday, in that it ended with Sean McVay saying, “We’re never going to apologize for being able to find ways to win.” But, they got the job done, and they're now atop the NFC West with a game in hand over their biggest threats in the Seahawks.

Percentage chances of landing the 1 seed in the NFC, via Inpredictable:

1. Eagles: 50%
2. Rams: 32%
3. Seahawks: 7%
4. Packers: 3%
5. Lions: 3%
6. Bears: 2%
7. 49ers: 2%
8. Buccaneers: 1%

But, right now the Rams look like the most complete team in the NFC, so we'll leave them in the top spot for another week.

Last week: 1

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