The Phillies are trending in the right direction going into the back half of May, even after this week's series loss to the Cardinals in their return home.
Aaron Nola isn't, though. It's been a struggle for him since the year began, and that's only growing more concerning with each passing start.
He got lit up on Wednesday in the latter game of a doubleheader that the Phillies lost by a final of 14-7.
His fastball, even though it's never been known to torch hitters, dipped on the radar gun again, and his breaking pitches were left hanging over the plate.
St. Louis tagged him for 12 hits and nine runs (all earned) in 3.2 innings. The veteran right-hander gave up three homers across the third and fourth innings, and with each clearing way into the seats.
The Phillies' bats spotted Nola a 5-1 lead, but even so, he dropped to 1-7 on the season and was at a loss for answers postgame.
"They didn't miss any balls over the plate tonight," Nola said from the Phillies' clubhouse (via NBC Sports Philadelphia). "I didn't do my job well at all. The guys gave me good run support, hit the ball really well, and I didn't get it done."
"I don't really have another answer for tonight besides terrible," he added later.
The @Cardinals answer the Phillies in Game 2 with a 5-run frame of their own! 💥 pic.twitter.com/zsIc8t9nqA
— MLB (@MLB) May 14, 2025
There was some optimism that Nola might have been turning a corner a couple of weeks back.
He threw seven innings of one-run ball in a 3-1 win over the Cubs in Chicago on April 27, but didn't get the decision, then followed that up with six shutout innings against Arizona at home on May 3 in a 7-2 Phils blowout that finally earned him his first victory of the season.
But then his next two starts came along and he crashed back to earth.
Nola pushed through five innings but gave up two homers and four runs too many in a 6-0 Phils shutout loss at Cleveland last Friday, then arrived to Wednesday's shelling from the Cards.
By the time he was pulled for Tanner Banks on a dreary night at Citizens Bank Park, he was at 83 pitches, and at a loss.
"A lot of first-pitch strikes, but just couldn't put people away," manager Rob Thomson said of Nola postgame (again via NBC Sports Philly). "It's just a lot of mistakes, especially with two strikes on the hitters. Didn't really have his best command, and kind of paid for it."
The bigger problem, though, is that Nola hasn't really found his command all season, at least not so far.
The 31-year-old insisted postgame Wednesday that he feels fine physically, as he's had multiple times already since the year began.
Thomson also stressed his belief in Nola, saying that, "With him, you always think that he's gonna find it," as the manager was explaining why he sent him back out there for the fourth when he was already visibly shaky.
And look, maybe Nola does eventually "find it" to reinforce the top of what has otherwise been a strong Phillies rotation.
But right now, he's struggling, and the longer this rut carries on, the greater of a concern it becomes.
A few other thoughts on the Phils…
Strength in numbers
As much as Nola has been floundering, the rest of the Phillies' rotation being mostly stellar everywhere else has helped a lot to compensate.
Jesús Luzardo was excellent again in Game 1 of Wednesday's doubleheader, tossing seven innings of one-run ball to improve to 4-0 and to continue building his case as one of the offseason's biggest steals.
Zack Wheeler remains as the Cy Young-caliber ace at the top, Cristopher Sánchez seems to keep reaching new heights with each passing turn on the bump, and Ranger Suárez's second outing against the Guardians last weekend was a major improvement that looked much closer to the tear All-Star tear he went on early last year.
Again, Nola's struggles are a problem right now, but some deep starting pitching depth has done wonders to keep the Phils afloat.
The rotation might even stand to get deeper, too.
As of this writing, top prospect Andrew Painter is expected to make his second start for Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Thursday night to keep him on track for a major-league call-up later into the summer.
Fellow pitching prospect Mick Abel seems to have finally clicked for the IronPigs as well, and could earn his way to a big-league look also if he keeps up his pace – the 23-year-old righthander is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA right now.
Is it ideal? No. The Phillies are much a better team with Nola at the top of his game.
But say in the hypothetical that he doesn't figure this out: Well, it might not actually be the end of the world for the Phillies. They have some workarounds here.
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- Phillies' Andrew Painter climbs to top-five ranking among MLB prospects
A brewing battery?
Staying with Lehigh Valley, the IronPigs have been tearing through the International League with an East division-leading 29-12 record heading toward their game Thursday night at Syracuse.
And Garrett Stubbs has been one of their biggest stars.
The backup catcher, who the Phillies demoted to the minors in the spring so that they could carry Rafael Marchán on the roster, launched a three-run homer against Syracuse on Wednesday and has been slashing .303/.404/.483 during his stay in Allentown.
The 31-year-old has also been a mentor to the Phillies prospects who are on the bubble of a major-league call-up, especially Painter, as highlighted by an extensive feature last week from Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Stubbs caught Painter's first Triple-A start last week against Worcester, and of note, he told Lauber this about the top prospect's outing…
“I told him, ‘Look, there’s going to be at least one time during this game where something doesn’t go the way that we want it to,’” Stubbs said. “‘Something’s going to happen. And you’re going to have to be a man and be a competitor and figure a way out of it.’" [The Inquirer]
Painter walked the bases loaded in the third inning with two outs, but battled to a seven-pitch pop out at first to escape it with no runs scored before his day was done.
He figured a way out, and Stubbs' mentorship in bringing Painter along also brings something for the Phillies to maybe think about, provided they're not already.
Obviously, Stubbs is doing well for himself in Lehigh Valley.
Marchán in Philly? Well, he's barely played and is hitting .160 after 31 plate appearances.
The reason why the Phillies carried Marchán instead of Stubbs was understandable at the time. Stubbs had one more minor league option. Marchán didn't, and the Phils needed to see what they had.
But right now, they're not seeing much, and with Stubbs playing a key role in Painter's development – along with him playing well overall in Triple-A – it might be worth considering bringing him back up to the majors along with Painter when the time comes.
That might bring a jolt back into the clubhouse, too.
Stubbs launches one and it's an 8-run 10th inning!
Took us 9 innings to score 8, then 1 inning to score 8 more#ironpigs #ironpigsbaseball #stubby pic.twitter.com/YG7oX2dR3g— Lehigh Valley IronPigs (@IronPigs) May 14, 2025
Super Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber's on-base streak ended at 47 games in Game 1 of Wednesday's doubleheader. He proceeded to crush a baseball 420 feet into the right field seats in Game 2, even though that game devolved into a mess for the Phils.
Streaks aside, this season is becoming maybe the most well-rounded one Schwarber has ever put together at the plate.
In a contract year, the 32-year-old is slashing .261/.393/.580 with an NL-leading 15 home runs, 30 walks, 33 runs batted in, and wth some wheels on him, four stolen bases.
The Phillies should probably pay him.
That's just classic Kyle Schwarber#RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/WJNg5MF4QO
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) May 14, 2025
The Jordan Romano apology tour
Jordan Romano had a brutal March/April to start the season. The right-handed reliever coming in, with any kind of lead, was instant reason to hold your breath, and many fans were left lamenting about how the Phillies should've found a way to keep Jeff Hoffman.
May so far has been a different story, though.
Romano has made five appearances, and across 5.0 innings, he has struck out seven while surrendering no runs, no walks, and just three hits.
Hoffman over in Toronto had an outright dominant start through the season's first month, but since the calendar flipped: six appearances, 4.0 innings pitched, 11 earned runs surrendered with three homers and three walks.
It's a long season in the majors, but sometimes narratives can just flip on a dime.
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