Every day between the end of the Sixers' regular season and the NBA Draft Lottery on May 12, we will use Tankathon.com's famous simulation tool to run through the lottery 10 times. Over a 29-day period, we will collect a significant sample of possible outcomes and track those results as the Sixers wait to learn the fate of their own first-round pick.
The Sixers are entering the lottery with the fifth-best set of odds, but they will only keep their first-rounder if it falls in the top six slots due to an obligation to the Oklahoma City Thunder from a trade made nearly five years ago.
Let's get to today's simulations:
Today's results
The outcomes of today's batch of 10 simulations:
• Simulation No. 1: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 2: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 3: 9th pick
• Simulation No. 4: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 5: 2nd pick
• Simulation No. 6: 7th pick
• Simulation No. 7: 3rd pick
• Simulation No. 8: 4th pick
• Simulation No. 9: 3rd pick
• Simulation No. 10: 4th pick
MORE: Tyrese Maxey year-in-review
Best simulation of the day
This was a good batch of simulations for the Sixers despite not winning the Cooper Flagg race at any point. The Sixers did land the No. 2 pick one, but the pair of times they finished at No. 3 present an interesting question.
Would the Sixers take Rutgers forward Ace Bailey in this spot, where many project him to land? Bailey seems to be far and away the most polarizing prospect in this class — some see a future superstar in the mold of Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony; others see a deeply flawed player with poor shot selection and a ceiling resembling someone like Michael Porter Jr. of the Denver Nuggets.
Worst simulation of the day
The Sixers dropped to No. 9 in one simulation today, which is not necessarily worse than finishing No. 7 or No. 8 considering they will lose the pick either way. But this was a wild simulation that features jumps into the top four for both of the teams the Sixers leapfrogged in the lottery standings over the course of their lengthy tanking efforts:
For the second day in a row… Flagg and Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio. Good lord.
Overall results
The cumulative results of this exercise so far:
| Draft Pick | Simulation Outcomes | Simulation Outcome Percentage | Actual Percentage Odds |
| 1 | 10 | 14.2% | 10.5% |
| 2 | 8 | 11.4% | 10.5% |
| 3 | 3 | 4.2% | 10.6% |
| 4 | 5 | 7.1% | 10.5% |
| 5 | 2 | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| 6 | 17 | 24.2% | 19.6% |
| 7 | 20 | 28.5% | 26.7% |
| 8 | 4 | 5.7% | 8.7% |
| 9 | 1 | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Keep or Lose Pick? | Simulation Outcomes | Simulation Outcome Percentage | Actual Percentage Odds |
| Kept Pick | 45 | 64.2% | 64.0% |
| Lost Pick | 25 | 35.8% | 36.0% |
MORE: Joel Embiid year-in-review
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