For the gambling degenerates, here are our Conference Championship Round NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Commanders at Eagles (-6): The Commanders have a dynamic, exciting, playmaking quarterback in Jayden Daniels who can take over games. He is playing at a high level as a rookie, while Jalen Hurts is not, at least as a passer. That is a pretty significant checkmark in the Commanders' favor in this matchup.
However, the Eagles are better almost everywhere else:
• Running back: Eagles (and it isn't close)
• Wide receiver: Eagles
• Tight end: Eagles
• Offensive line: Eagles (and it isn't close)
• Defensive line: Eagles
• Linebackers: Commanders
• Cornerback: Eagles
• Safety: Eagles
That's too much for Daniels to overcome, and the Commanders' underdog story will end in Philly on Sunday. I do think this will be a close game, with Jake Elliott making a walk-off field goal to advance to the Super Bowl, 33-30.
Bills at Chiefs (-2): Trusting the Bills to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs feels a little bit like Charlie Brown trusting Lucy to hold the football for him:
But when I look at these two teams, the Bills are just better. They have a great rushing attack, their quarterback has had a better season, and defensively they have had a knack all season for forcing turnovers.
But also, ultimately I'm going to root for whoever I pick in this game, and Patrick Mahomes has gone from such an enjoyable player to watch to a ref-baiting flopper. I just don't want to watch the Chiefs in the Super Bowl again, and I can't imagine who would, other than Chiefs fans.
So I guess I'm picking with my heart to some degree here, even if the Bills are also just better.
(Deep down inside I know the Chiefs will win this game because of some nonsense.)
• Picks against the spread: Commanders (+6), Bills (+2).
• 2024 season, straight up: 203-79 (0.720)
• 2024 season, ATS: 61-42-3 (0.590)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 451-378-22 (0.543)
MORE: Eagles-Commanders NFC Championship Game injury report, with analysis
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