Week 14 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are our Week 14 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Packers at Lions (-3.5): The Lions will be without starting LT Taylor Decker, and three defensive linemen:

#GBvsDET injury report presented by Henry Ford Health. pic.twitter.com/TSkrKoHjxc

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 4, 2024

D.J. Reader and Josh Pascal are starters, and the Lions are already without Aidan Hutchinson, so that's a big concern in this matchup, but it's hard to bet against this Lions team that has won 10 straight games, even if they didn't look great on Thanksgiving against the Bears.

This game is of major importance to the Eagles, because a Lions loss to the Packers is the Eagles' best path to winning a tiebreaker over the Lions for the 1 seed. I'll explain:

• First tiebreaker: Head-to-head matchup: Not applicable.

• Second tiebreaker: Better conference record: Both of the Eagles' losses were to NFC teams, so they cannot win this tiebreaker if they and the Lions both finish 15-2. They can win it if they both finish 14-3, AND the Eagles' loss is to the Steelers, AND all of the Lions' losses are to NFC teams.

• Third tiebreaker: Record against common opponents (minimum of four: The Eagles and Lions have five common opponent this year, shown below:

As you can see, they're both 4-1 against their common opponents. If the Lions lose to the Packers, the Eagles can win this tiebreaker, as long as they beat the Cowboys Week 17. If the Lions beat the Packers, they will clinch at least a stalemate on common opponents, which brings us to the fourth tiebreaker…

• Fourth tiebreaker: Strength of victory in all games: The combined record of the teams the Lions have beaten so far is 66-68. The combined record of the teams the Eagles have beaten is 51-71. When you also consider that the Lions' remaining opponents have a combined record of 38-22 while the Eagles' remaining opponents have a combined record of 27-34, it's safe to say the Lions are going to win this tiebreaker.

If the Lions lose to the Packers, the Eagles will instantly become favorites to win the 1 seed. If the Lions beat the Packers, they will substantially increase their already good odds of winning the 1 seed.

Panthers at Eagles (-12.5): The Panthers don't have a lot of talent and for a big chunk of the season they looked like the worst team in the NFL. However, they won two of their last four, and their two losses during that span came by three points each against the Chiefs and Buccaneers. They're still playing hard, and rookie QB Bryce Young seems to be figuring some things out. The Eagles have had some ugly losses as double-digit favorites in their day (see: John Skelton, Joe Webb, etc.), so never count out an unexpected catastrophe.

With that disclaimer out of the way, the Eagles have the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 188.9 rushing yards per game. If they keep up that pace, they'll have the 11th most rushing yards per game in NFL history. The Panthers have the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 166.8 rushing yards per game. They are on pace to give up the 12th-most rushing yards in a single season in NFL history.

That matchup alone is going to be too difficult for the Panthers to overcome. Expect another big day out of Saquon Barkley as he continues to make his MVP push down the stretch.

Falcons at Vikings (-5.5): The Vikings haven't exactly looked like world beaters lately, even while winning five straight games, but they're definitely better than the Falcons, who can't rush the passer to save their lives and have recently gotten some terrible play out of Kirk Cousins.

Saints (-4.5) at Giants: The Saints went through an awful stretch midway through their season, but they at least look like a semi-functional football team lately, while the Giants are an absolute train wreck

Jaguars at Titans (-3.5): If the season ended today, the Jaguars would have the No. 1 overall pick for the third time since 2021 and a top 10 pick for the 15th time since 2008.

Raiders at Buccaneers (-6.5): This is a rematch of the Super Bowl following the 2002 season, a game that will forever live in my brain as a bad experience.

At the time I was semi-fresh out of college, struggling in my commission-only sales job, and low on money. I bought a Super Bowl box (or a square or whatever you want to call them) at a bar down from the street from my office in Manhattan, and wound up with the numbers 1 and 1. That meant that I would win money if the Bucs' and Raiders' scores both ended in the number 1 at the end of the first quarter, second quarter, third quarter, or the end of the game. If their scores both ended in 1 at the end of the game, I would have won something in the ballpark of $3,000.

With 12 seconds left in the game, the Bucs were up 41-21. I was almost certain to win roughly $3,000, when… OH NO!

I hope Dwight Smith stubbed his toe today.

Anyway, the Bucs have something to play for in this game, while the Raiders' season has been over for more than a month and they have lost eight straight.

Browns at Steelers (-6.5): The Browns beat the Steelers in a snow globe game a couple weeks ago, so I'm staying away from this one. Jameis Winston is averaging 336 passing yards per game since he became the Browns' starter, but he has a couple of games in which he threw 3 INTs. I don't think anyone would want Winston to be their team's quarterback, but he's at least fun to watch and can be dangerous when he's not a disaster.

Jets at Dolphins (-6): The Fraud Bowl. I've been picking against these two teams all year with good results, so it stinks when they play each other.

Seahawks at Cardinals (-2.5): Kyler Murray is 2-7 lifetime against the Seahawks, and the last time he beat them was 2020. Murray has also made some truly terrible throws over the last couple of games.

Bills (-4) at Rams: The Bills have scored 30+ points in six straight games, so I'm not afraid of laying some points with them, and 3.5 is a reasonable number.

Bears at 49ers (-4): The Bears suck, but the 49ers just have so many injuries. Let's get nuts and take the Bears outright.

Chargers at Chiefs (-3.5): The Chiefs' last four games:

1. Blocked FG at the end of regulation beats the Broncos.
2. Two-score loss to the Bills.
3. Game-winning FG at the end of regulation to beat the Panthers.
4. The Raiders pissed a away a chance to beat them with a FG at the end of regulation because they're the Raiders.

I won't bet against the Chiefs, but I also don't trust them at all. They look a whole lot like the when the Eagles were winning weird games last year just before their collapse.

Bengals (-5.5) at Cowboys: The Cowboys have won two straight and their defense has played better than it has all season. The Bengals have allowed 34+ points six times this season. Why are we still pretending like they're good? Give me the Cowboys.

BYEs: Commanders, Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Texans, Broncos. (Note: There are no more bye weeks after Week 14.)

• Picks against the spread: Bills (-3.5).

• 2024 season, straight up: 139-56 (0.713)
• 2024 season, ATS: 47-33-2 (0.585)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 437-369-21 (0.541)

MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup

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