We cashed our Lock last week as the Eagles easily dismantled the Dallas Cowboys. We were a DeVonta Smith TD away from cashing a ticket north of 100-1, so certainly we are in good shape overall. This is a short week with a lot of issues on both teams to work through, some dealing with injury, others just trends and recent history. Either way, it may not point to a convincing win by the Eagles as the spread still sits at 3.5 points at most books.
Week 11 lock: The Commanders (+3.5)
Please understand when we discuss betting value it has absolutely nothing to do with fandom. I picked the Washington Commanders to win outright this morning on Fox29 and will do it again here. Not because I think Washington is the better team, they aren’t, but they have a better spot in the schedule. This is a tough one for the Eagles to maintain after a huge emotional win in Dallas, something that hasn’t happened in years.
It's a short week for both teams but it’s just easier to turn around after a loss than an emotionally exhausting win. Again, the Birds crushed Dallas but it’s hard to follow that up, especially in division. The Eagles are 9-10 straight up over their last 19 games as division favorites against “good teams” – can be qualified as a win percentage over .600 on the year. They have covered just one of the last six spreads against Washington, and the Commanders are 11-4-2 against the spread in their last 17 games in Philadelphia.
There seems to be a blind spot for the Commanders in division. The Eagles are told for at least a full week how important it is to beat Dallas. There is a legit boundary rivalry with New York that carries over to other sports. There is nothing electric about the Washington rivalry outside of your buddy who lives down in Silver Springs.
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There are about a million trends (non HC/QB) that point to why the Eagles should dominate this Commanders team yet we sit at a 3.5 point line. It tells me there’s a lack of trust still with this Eagles team, and I’m guessing it’s Nick Sirianni.
Best bet: Washington Commanders +3.5 -110
Week 11 long shot: Single game parlay
Here’s my favorite Eagles SGP for @thephillyvoice pic.twitter.com/blrgYRuJtI
— ShanderBets (@shanderbets) November 14, 2024
Let’s start with what we already put above, the side. I will take Washington at 3.5 as it’s the hook on the most important key number in football. We stay ahead of that with the hook in a divisional game. Kliff Kingsbury was 7-0 ATS against the NFC East during his time in Arizona, and Dan Quinn has a fantastic record each year against his old division. There’s enough for Washington to be a live dog.
The total is a little high too. People want to race and bet the over because of the Washington offense creating so many scoring chances, combined with the Eagles immense firepower. I think the total stays under 48.5 points tonight on a short week. It’s Thursday night football and things happen. Drives stall, penalties get called and fumbles and interceptions happen too. It’s any given Sunday but in a microwave. Neither team wants a shootout on a short week.
Jalen Hurts is pretty much a lock to have a scoring opportunity – or three – each week. We see big plays result in goal line chances and Hurts is the official TD vulture. Even Saquon Barkley is feeling the effects of it, so we ride with another TD for Hurts. He’s going to have at least two to three chances to score on the ground, with at least one of those being the goal line gimmick.
While Vic Fangio has a great record as a DC against rookie QBs, Jayden Daniels has been playing above that moniker. The Eagles from a personnel standpoint have struggled with mobile QBs, especially dual threats. This ain’t Cooper Rush coming to town and Daniels will be able to make some plays. I like him to get in on the ground like Hurts.
Best bet: +2834 SGP .1u FanDuel
Eytan Shander is a long time radio and TV personality in Philadelphia. In addition to his weekly column, you can currently listen and watch him on Fox29’s Good Day and other sports shows. He’s giving betting advice on OddsShopper. A lifetime Eagles fan, Eytan lives just outside the city with his wife.
Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow
