Phillies’ NLDS collapse vs. Mets sets the stage for critical offseason, with major decisions looming

The instant a fly ball went off the bat of Jake Cave and into the glove of Corbin Carroll on Oct. 24, 2023, everything changed for the Phillies.

A stunning upstart that made a miraculous run to the World Series the year prior — immediately after snapping an 11-year postseason drought — the Phillies started to look like a budding juggernaut, a team built perfectly for October baseball that appeared on the verge of back-to-back pennants.

Then a team that began its return to October baseball by capitalizing on an overwhelming home-field advantage as scrappy underdogs fell flat for two straight days at Citizens Bank Park. The feel-good vibes were gone. A team loaded with high-priced players on the wrong side of 30 could no longer ride the high of Philadelphia’s excitement that postseason baseball had returned to the city.

Suddenly, expectations loomed large. But they weren’t just the expectations of a demanding market — for the entirety of the lead-up to the 2024 season, and a regular season in which the team won 95 games and captured its first National League East crown in 13 years, everybody associated with the Phillies affirmed ad nauseam that nothing mattered until the calendar turned to October 2024.

Then, the page on the calendar flipped — and what began as a World Series-or-bust season for the Phillies ended in a cataclysmic embarrassment on the home field of their biggest rivals.

The Phillies fell to the New York Mets on Wednesday night, 4-1, ending their season with a 3-1 series loss in the National League Division Series. Their futile October offense floundered, their bullpen cratered once more. The Phillies scored one run thanks to an error by Mets third baseman Mark Vientos, mustering all of four hits in a do-or-die game in which the legacy of this core group was on the line.

351 days ago, the Phillies season ended courtesy of four runs scored or driven in by Carroll, a superstar in the making, who punctuated Game 7 of the 2023 National League Championship Series with the game-ending catch. On Wednesday, a full-fledged superstar at the peak of his career powered four runs that ended the 2024 Phillies’ season. New York shortstop Francisco Lindor did it all in one swing, crushing a go-ahead grand slam to right-center field. About 45 minutes later, the Phillies were headed back to the visitor’s clubhouse.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson’s bullpen melted down against New York. No matter which button Thomson pressed, the results were awful. All-Stars Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm, who had been so outstanding in virtually every situation for an entire 162-game season, crumbled. Rookie Orion Kerkering struggled. José Alvarado, once at the top of Thomson’s bullpen pecking order, was reduced to one medium-leverage outing that went poorly. Trade deadline acquisition Carlos Estévez was forced to try to clean up Hoffman’s mess Wednesday night, and threw the pitch that Lindor sent into orbit.

All of this is maddening and confounding, but it is not much of an indicator of future outcomes. Relief pitching is inherently volatile, and if anything, it shows the importance of bullpen depth — twice, Thomson tried to use journeyman José Ruiz in the middle-innings and was burned for it.

The issue which plagued them for the second straight October and poses a far greater threat to the long-term viability of the team is its offense. Top-heavy and liable to poor swing decisions, the Phillies’ collection of hitters came up small once again in the NLDS.

In back-to-back seasons, the Phillies entered the trade deadline with multiple cornerstones in their lineup and a clear need for more players who can put together quality — or even competitive — at-bats. In both years, Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski’s lone offensive addition was a non-factor or worse by the time October came around.

Rodolfo Castro went 3-30 after being acquired by the Phillies for starting pitcher Bailey Falter in 2023 and did not appear in the postseason. In 2024, Austin Hays slashed .256/.275/.397 after arriving in Philadelphia, then went 0-4 with three strikeouts in two appearances (one start) in the NLDS.

Only two Phillies who appeared in at least three games against the Mets batted above .200 in the series. Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner failed to set the table for the team’s only two October producers in Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos. Schwarber and Bryson Stott each had one big swing in the series, and that was that.

Many professed concern about the Phillies’ lineup — their tendency to chase pitches out of the strike zone is well-documented, and for the second straight October they paid for it — but even for the skeptics, these results are jarring:

The only task more ominous than recalling how the Phillies got into this position is pondering what the next steps are. There are no easy answers here, with plenty of expensive veterans being more or less locked into identical roles in 2025 (and for some, far beyond).

Turner has nine years left on his $300 million contract. His offensive production has been well below his career averages in both of his seasons with the Phillies, he has become considerably less dangerous on the basepaths and his defense at shortstop is not tenable for much longer. The question is when, not if, Turner is forced to move to a new position — and that conversation is likely going to begin a lot sooner than the Phillies anticipated when they inked him to that massive deal. If Turner’s chase-happy style will persist, how much longer will his contact and power?

Castellanos has two years left on his contract with the Phillies, slated to make $20 million in 2025 and 2026. For all of his clutch swings, sliding catches and amusing soundbites in three years with the Phillies, he has provided the Phillies 1.4 total wins above replacement in three seasons, according to FanGraphs (178 major-league batters were worth 1.4 fWAR in 2024 alone). He has achieved fan favorite status, but is liable to multiple brutal offensive slumps during a given season while also being considerably below-average in right field (despite making recent improvements as a defender).

J.T. Realmuto went hitless in the NLDS after posting his worst offensive season in a half-decade with the Phillies. The massive amount of mileage on Realmuto is adding up, as he only played in 99 games. Realmuto will make $23,875,000 in 2025 in his age-34 season. The decline has not just started on Realmuto, but perhaps accelerated. The Phillies will need to slow him down, and part of that is giving their veteran backstop more days off during the regular season. That will be easier to manage with a viable offensive player as a backup catcher; Garrett Stubbs has slashed .206/.287/.271 with two home runs over the last two seasons.

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There are questions across the diamond. Alec Bohm started in the All-Star Game, and then had a putrid second half that culminated in a Game 2 benching. He will never even be an average defender at third base, and at some point, pre-draft projections that Bohm would develop home run power will be irrelevant: Bohm is 28 years old and has only one time slugged more than 15 homers in a major-league season. Brandon Marsh is clearly a valuable piece, but still cannot face left-handed pitching. Stott is a brilliant fielder and strong base-runner, but his hitting continues to lag behind. Perhaps an eventual return to shortstop would make him a more valuable piece, but he is also not a Gold Glove-caliber defender there the way he is at second base. Johan Rojas’ defense in center field is magnificent, but at some point he will either have to become a competent batter or become merely a defensive specialist.

The true saving grace for the Phillies is that their starting rotation remains strong. Zack Wheeler is arguably the best pitcher in the game, and without question is the best big-game starter in baseball. Aaron Nola, for all of his flaws, is a steady presence who can be relied on for around 200 above-average innings every year. Christopher Sánchez’s ascent into an All-Star was perhaps the most remarkable development of the season; with a long-term extension inked, Sánchez figures to be a fixture in Philadelphia for years to come. Then there is Ranger Suárez, who looked like a Cy Young Award contender through June, was a shell of himself from July through September, and then battled as best he could on Wednesday before the relievers behind him surrendered a 1-0 lead. 2025 will be Suárez’s final season before entering free agency — all eyes will be on the left-hander as he looks to earn a major contract.

How the Phillies will fill the fifth spot — a disastrous revolving cast of characters sunk them every fifth day for the final months of 2024 — remains unclear, but they will have options.

If anything, the Phillies’ collapse against the Mets is a reminder of how fickle World Series contention is. In the moment, the team’s wild joyride to the 2022 World Series was viewed as the start of an era of Phillies baseball that would be marked by perennial contention.

Then came heartbreak in the 2023 NLCS, and the mounting pressure.

Then came a catastrophic stretch of days from Saturday until Wednesday: four games in which all of the greatest fears about the Phillies came true at the same time.

For two Octobers, the Phillies have hoped to recapture the unbridled joy of 2022. Instead, they have run into two teams with much more in common with the 2022 Phillies than current iterations of the Phillies did.

Suddenly, a window that once seemed wide open is shutting fast. Such is life in baseball.

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