Week 8 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 8 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Vikings (-2.5) at Rams: Colleen Wolfe made an interesting observation on the NFL Daily podcast that teams that face the Lions one week often get blown out the next week. So I went and looked, and yeah, sure enough:

In the four games teams played the Lions and then had a game the next week, they're 0-4 with a point differential of -87, including a home loss to the freaking Giants.

Before I heard that nugget, I kinda loved laying the -2.5 points with the Vikings, but that trend is scaring me off a bit, especially with the Vikings having to travel out to the west coast on a short week. (I'll still take them to win.)

Eagles at Bengals (-2.5): Over the last two decades, the Eagles have had some really ugly games against the Bengals.• 2008, 13-13 tie: This was the game that revealed that Donovan McNabb didn't know that games could end in a tie.• 2012, 34-13 Bengals: On the Eagles' opening possession, Jeremy Maclin fumbled, leading to a Bengals TD. On their second possession, the Eagles went three-and-out, and boos rained down. While lined up for the ensuing punt, backup TE Clay Harbor ran out onto the field late, which drew more boos, and then the punt was blocked, lol, at which point they were booed worse than I've ever heard. The Eagles would get blown out, fall to 4-10, and Andy Reid would be fired at the end of the season.
• 2016, 32-14 Bengals: During Doug Pederson's first season as the head coach, the Eagles were down 29-0 at one point late in the third quarter against the Bengals. But worse than the score was the effort (or lack thereof) on several occasions throughout the game, most notably by Zach Ertz, who jumped out of the way of linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who was trying to track down Carson Wentz.

That was an inconsequential play during that game, but people noticed it, and Pederson was peppered by questions about the team's effort the following day in his press conference. Pederson would admit that "not everybody" played hard.
• 2020, 23-23 tie: Pederson punted with 19 seconds left in regulation from the Bengals’ 46. The more detailed circumstances of that moment can be found in our "10 awards" post from that day four years ago, if you're interested. But strategies aside, that game kinda marked a change in the fun Doug Eagles that took risks vs. the "punt from the Bengals' 46 in a tie game with 19 seconds left in regulation" not fun at all Doug Eagles. Pederson was fired at the end of the season.

• MORE EAGLES
• Ranking the positions the Eagles could deal for at the NFL trade deadline
• Eagles-Bengals Week 8 injury report, with analysis
• Eagles power ranking roundup: Week 8

So brace for the worst, I suppose.Interestingly, the Eagles' and Bengals' last two opponents were both against the Giants and Browns, and they both came away from those games with two wins apiece. But, the Eagles looked significantly better, in my opinion.

The Bengals were outgained in those two games collectively by 118 yards. The Eagles outgained those 2 teams by 348 yards. So by that logic, I guess I'll take the Eagles.

Titans at Lions (-11): The 1-5 Titans are already sellers, as they sent DeAndre Hopkins to Kansas City. The Lions were the obvious top team in my Hierarchy this week, but here's what that would look like if we included the entire NFL and not just the NFC:

1. Ravens
2. Lions
3. Chiefs
4. Bills
5. Vikings

In other words, I think the Lions are very good, but 11 points is a little too rich for my blood.

Ravens (-8.5) at Browns: The Ravens' offense is a juggernaut. Their last five games:

I'm just going to ride that. Laying 8.5 points to a dead in the water Browns team feels like a bargain, even on the road.

Packers (-3.5) at Jaguars: The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL and the Jaguars are one of the worst. Why is this line only 3.5 points? What am I missing?

Colts at Texans (-5): I liked this line for the Colts when it was 6 points. I don't like it as much at 5. Don't get cute and take the Texans as your survivor pick this week. These teams are probably a little more evenly matched than is perceived, in my opinion.

Cardinals at Dolphins (-3.5): The Dolphins looked like one of the worst team in the NFL after they lost Tua Tagovailoa with a concussion. However, they also looked bad before Tua got hurt. Picking the Cardinals to win outright on the road feels like calling someone's bluff with a pair of deuces, but that's how convinced I am that the Dolphins are simply frauds, healthy Tua or not.

Falcons (-2.5) at Buccaneers: I like this Buccaneers team quite a bit and I think the Falcons are an average team, at best, but the losses of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans changes everything for the Bucs, whose offense is powered by those two players.

Jets (-7) at Patriots: This is a matchup between the second-worst team in the NFL and a team led by a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers whose 2024 season is reminding me a bit of Tom Brady's "Why the hell did I come back" 2022 season. I guess the difference between Brady and Rodgers is that Brady was still kinda good that year, and Rodgers has kinda stunk this year.

This should be a win for the Jets, though, and the people who never learn will talk themselves into them maybe contending in the AFC.

On a side note, oh hey, we're going to start putting something other than zeroes in the Haason Reddick sack and snap count tracker!

Bills (-3) at Seahawks: As noted above, I think the Bills are one of the four best teams in the NFL, and their acquisition of Amari Cooper last week was an immediate hit. They're just a really good, balanced team with a top 3 quarterback, while the Seahawks are wildly inconsistent.

Saints at Chargers (-7.5): I don't love this Chargers team, but the Saints have lost each of their last five games by a combined score of 151-86, including three straight losses by at least two scores.

Bears (-3) at Commanders: Jayden Daniels will miss this game for Washington, thus ruining the "Jayden Daniels – Caleb Williams Bowl."

After watching Marcus Mariota in training camp last year, I can't make this one of my picks against the spread, but I also think that this overrated Bears team shouldn't be 3-point road favorites over a much improved Commanders roster. And sure, why not, let's just take the Commanders to win outright.

Chiefs (-10) at Raiders: Next.

Panthers at Broncos (-10): I'm actually kind of tempted to lay 10 points with the Broncos here because the Panthers are just that bad, but I don't want this meaningless game affecting my record on some BS backdoor cover.

Cowboys at 49ers (-4): As noted in the Hierarchy this week, the Niners have owned Dak Prescott in recent years, and Prescott's performances have gotten progressively worse against this defense:

• 2021, Wildcard round: 23 of 43 for 254 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. 17-23 loss.

• 2022, Divisional round: 23 of 37 for 206 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. 12-19 loss.

• 2023, Week 5: 14 of 24 for 153 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT. 10-42 loss.

The Niners are kind of a mess at the moment, with injuries and other issues, but the Cowboys' vibes are even worse. I like the Niners' chances of getting out of their rut more than I trust the Cowboys.

Giants at Steelers (-6.5): The Steelers' pass rush is going to annihilate the Giants' offensive line.

Bye week: None.

• Picks against the spread: Eagles (+2.5), Ravens (-8.5), Packers (-3.5), Cardinals (+3.5), Bills (-3), 49ers (-4), Steelers (-6.5).

• 2024 season, straight up: 71-36 (0.664)
• 2024 season, ATS: 26-17-2 (0.600)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 417-353-21 (0.538)

MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup

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